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*CBB(1u): Northwestern +2.5 vs Indiana–8 PM CT
Another night, another disrespectful line for Northwestern. I don’t view this as a great spot for Indiana having to play their 2nd straight road game and coming off an emotional win at Michigan. Moreso, I don’t like this matchup for Indiana’s offense at all.
Indiana is an efficient jump-shooting team, but they attempt the 16th fewest 3’s in the country; on Saturday, they attempted just 6 three-pointers at Michigan. You can beat Northwestern from the outside, but you are going to have a tough time beating them as you get closer to the basket. The Wildcats rank 17th in opponent 2pt FG% and block 4.5 shots per game. Northwestern also forces nearly 14.5 turnovers per game, while Indiana can get a little sloppy with the basketball(144th in turnovers/game).
Northwestern does not have good overall shooting numbers, and in particular, they have shot 26.5% from deep over their last 5 games. With that said, Indiana has struggled mightily to defend the 3 on the road this season, allowing over 35% from beyond the arc in this role. Indiana has a strong 2pt defense that Chris Collins knows his guys can’t beat, but given Northwestern ranks in the Top 20% of the country in 3pt attempts, I think Northwestern will play this matchup correctly. All we need is a semi-decent shooting night from Northwestern here.
We’ve already seen the Wildcats beat Indiana at Assembly Hall this year, and as a kicker, the Wildcats hold a 3.5% advantage at the Foul Line in what’s sure to be a down-to-the-wire game. I like Indiana in a lot of roles, but this isn’t one of them; similarly, I think this Northwestern team continues to be undervalued despite consistently showing they’re a legit tournament team.
