422 SMU at UCF UN 64*
Big game for UCF with major motivation to give the home team something to get excited about in a state going through a lot right now. SMU had that article about all the transfers this week but that could be a good thing for the locker room with a team that has had a couple of tough losses so far this season. The Mustangs had a chance to win that game at UMD, which was a tough travel spot, and hung with a good TCU team. I like SMU to get this one as they have the rest advantage, a relentless offense, and market support bringing this line down to +2.5. SMU is in a tough spot again because of the motivation UCF will have in their conference home opener to give Floridians something to get excited about. So, I will look again to a standalone game, primetime under.
UCF’s defense can’t be ignored. The Knights held Louisville and FAU to less than 2 TD’s, that has me looking toward the under. Their offensive numbers also are worth considering as they come in as they come in 6th in rush yds/ game so they should be able to keep this SMU team off the field. We also have some reverse total movement as the majority of money is on the over (69% as of this article), yet the total has ticked down from 64.5. The under is a tough bet in any SMU game and if they do get a lead with their 9th ranked pass offense, we could see UCF open up their pass game and this thing could take off on us. Last year this was a 55-28 SMU win.
But, there is a trend in favor of the under… In the last two seasons, when SMU has a game totaled at 63 or higher, they are 4-8 O/U, 1-3 O/U in conference games and so far this season they are 1-3 O/U with that total parameter. UCF has gone under in their L2 games with the total at 63 or higher. This is a small contrarian look to the under for me, with two teams I have pretty evenly matched. The only shot in my opinion UCF has, is to look to control clock as much as possible. We are seeing some buy back to the over today, so waiting until closer to game time is not the worst idea if you also are willing to take a chance on this under.
