Last year in CFB, I hit at a 55% clip(106-88-1) and netted +27.35u. I will likely add a play or two more closer to Saturday, but there is one spot I wanted to lock in now before this line gets steamed up. I’ll be breaking down games on my YouTube channel throughout the season, and if you want to receive a text when I release my plays and write-ups, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1.5u): Illinois -10.5(-110) vs Wyoming–Sat 8/28; 3 PM CT
Bret Beilema has done a pretty good job during his short tenure in Champagne. Despite inheriting a mess from Lovie Smith, Beilema led the Illini to a 5-win first season, which included a Week 0 win over Nebraska and a pair of road upsets at Minnesota and Penn State. I think this offense will take the next step with QB Tommy DeVito now at the helm. DeVito fizzled out at Syracuse, but the former 4-star pocket passer had the detriment of playing behind one of the worst pass-blocking OL’s in the country. His best season was in 2019, when he completed 63% of his passes and held nearly a 4:1 TD/INT ratio. This is a much better system for DeVito, and I think he’s an instant upgrade from both Brandon Peters and Artur Sitkowski. However, not everything will fall on DeVito’s arm like it did at Syracuse. RB Chase Brown ran for 1,000 yards in 2021 at almost 6 yards/carry, WR Isaiah Williams is a true X-factor with elite speed, and TE Luke Ford(formerly at Georgia) is a former high-4 star that I believe will be the centerpiece of this passing offense. Wyoming’s strength is their pass rush, but I really don’t like how they stack up on the interior with this Illinois OL. I also have a hard time seeing their LB’s stepping up against a dynamic RB like Brown and a physical OL. Their secondary is predominantly made up of transfers and, by nature, has almost no continuity.
The transfer portal ravaged this Wyoming offense over the offseason. Starting QB Levi Williams transferred to Utah State, top RB Xazavian Valladay transferred to Arizona State, and top WR Isaiah Neyor transferred to Texas. This offense ranked just 81st in offensive FEI with those pieces, so without them, this could truly be one of the worst offenses in the Mountain West. Projected starting QB Andrew Peasley has atrocious numbers throughout his career(54% completion, 6.4 Y/A, 7 TD vs 5 INT) and is no real threat in the vertical passing game. With the loss of a big play WR like Neyor, that becomes even more true. While RB Titus Swen averaged nearly 6 YPC last year in a secondary role, this is a tough matchup considering Illinois’s strength is their LB core. Calvin Hart Jr is back from injury and is, by my estimation, and All-Conference caliber LB. Illinois can truly sell out to stop the run considering Peasley and this Cowboy WR room likely won’t be able to connect in the vertical passing game. The Illini held a Top-30 defense in America a year ago; I expect them to impose their will on this Wyoming offense.
This is a low-variance game(implied by the low total), but this line is short. I’m higher on this Illinois offense than most and think this is absolutely a game the Illini should win by at least 2 TD’s.
