My 2021 CFB record currently sits at 65-50-1(56.4%), +21.91u. In addition to these 7 free plays, I have 7 CFB plays for my premium members. My premium plays have hit at a 66% clip(51-26-1) and have netted my members +38.1u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Virginia Tech/Boston College UNDER 48(-110)–Fri. 6:30 PM CT
Virginia Tech avenged a 3 game losing streak with a nice win at Georgia Tech last week, but I’m still very down on the Hokies’ offense. QB Braxton Burmeister is completing just 54% of his passes, but even worse is his 7.2 Y/A(yards per attempt). Not only is he inefficient, but due to an undermanned WR group, he’s not taking too many vertical shots. Boston College HC Jeff Hafley came over from a DC role at Ohio State, and his Golden Eagles squad has proven to be capable of holding stagnant offenses like VT’s at bay. However, Hafley is having his own crisis on offense. After losing QB Phil Jurkovec for the season, Boston College has looked lifeless with Dennis Grosel at QB. Over their 4 game losing streak, the Golden Eagles are averaging just 10 PPG, and this Hokies defense has proven to be steady this season. At this point of the season, neither of these teams are going to suddenly flip a switch after establishing their identities as below-average offenses. I expect defense to take over and for this to be an ugly, low-scoring game.
*CFB(1u): SMU/Memphis OVER 70.5(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
SMU’s offense has been a juggernaut all season, and they continued their success with a 37 point performance last week against Houston, who has one of the top defenses in the American Conference. When you combine an efficient passer in Tanner Mordecai(70.3% completion, 8.8 Y/A) and a multitude of weapons into a fast-paced offense, plenty of points are going to be scored. That being said, I’m not overly high on SMU’s defense and think that Memphis can exploit some of the Mustangs’ weaknesses. Memphis QB Seth Henigan might be a true freshman, but you wouldn’t know it by his 16 TD: 4 INT ratio. While Henigan is questionable entering this game, I’m fully expecting him to play. The Tigers have one of the best WR’s in all of CFB in Calvin Austin III; Austin is averaging 112 yards/game this season and has eclipsed the 200 yard mark in 2 separate games. The Mustangs tend to yield a lot of explosive plays through the air, so the Tigers should have multiple opportunities to strike deep. This sets up to be a back-and-forth game that goes down to the wire. While 70.5 is a high total, I don’t think it does justice to what each of these offenses are capable of. Give me the Over.
*CFB(1u): Illinois +15(-110) @ Minnesota–Sat. 11 AM CT
Minnesota has sneakily put themselves in a position to contend for a Big10 West title this season. Sitting at 6-2 currently, the Gophers have rattled off 4 straight conference wins; their average margin of victory in that span is over 14 points/game. They’ve been able to have this success despite losing each of their top 2 RB’s; yet, the Gophers are still employing a run-heavy attack. Illinois’ defense is quite stingy; the Illini are allowing just 23 PPG this season have haven’t allowed more than 22 points in conference play. The only weakness in the Illini defense might be their secondary, but lucky for them, PJ Fleck has little trust in his WR group(hence the run-heavy attack). The Illini offense is hard to watch at times; there isn’t much creativity to speak of. However, their defense has stepped up for them time and time again, so I’m expecting another low-scoring, tight game from this Bret Bielema-led group. I’ll grab those 15 points.
*CFB(1u): Missouri +39(-110) @ Georgia–Sat. 11 AM CT
I almost never bet against the best team in the country, but this line is crazy. Georgia would need to win by a whopping 40 points to cover; they’ve only won by that margin twice this season(UAB and Vanderbilt). For example, Georgia totally dominated South Carolina in a 40-13 win earlier this season; if the Tigers were to lose by that same margin here, it would be an easy cover. A 39 point line insinuates that Missouri is totally inept on each side of the ball, something I’m not willing to concede. Missouri is averaging nearly 35 PPG this season and have a talented QB in Connor Bazelak who’s completing 68% of his passes. I have little hope that the Tigers will be able to establish any sort of run game against an elite Georgia DL, but Bazelak has shown me enough through 2 years as a starter to where I think he’ll at least look competent in this game. While Mizzou’s offense is capable, there’s not much good to say about their defense; the Tigers are yielding 36 PPG and have gotten routinely shredded in the run game. Given Georgia’s makeup, I have little doubt that they’ll be able to establish the run. However, QB Stetson Bennett went just 10/19 with 2 INT’s last week and shouldn’t be needed for too many deep balls in this one. If JT Daniels were to be good enough to go, I’d expect him to look a bit rusty and not mirror the QB we saw towards the end of last season. With a road game at Tennessee on deck, I’m not seeing much incentive for the Bulldogs to extend this game any further than it needs to go; once the game is sealed up, it should be a race to wrap it up as quickly as possible. Georgia will win this game handily, but even a little bit of pushback from the Missouri side should lead to an easy cover. Call me crazy, but I’m riding with the Tigers in this one.
*CFB(1u): West Virginia 1H TT UNDER 10.5(-120) vs Oklahoma State–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Oklahoma State’s 7-1 start to the season has had little to do with their offense and much to do with their defense success. The Pokes employ one of best LB rooms in the country and have crippled opposing offenses week in/week out. West Virginia RB Leddie Brown has had some great games this season, but a 4.6 YPC illustrates that he has been held captive in West Virginia’s tougher matchups. While QB Jarret Doege has looked good in the Mountaineers’ last 2 games, he has limited upside; more than anything, the Mountaineers struggle to hit on explosive plays and are forced into long drives that require pin-point efficiency on 3rd down. I’m willing to bet Neal Brown’s bunch walks away from this game sorely disappointed with how they stack up against the Oklahoma State defense. Anything over 10 on a 1H TT presents a good opportunity to bet the Under.
*CFB(1u): Boise State +5(-110) @ Fresno State–Sat. 6 PM CT
Fresno State has brought its “A” game in the Bulldogs’ biggest games this season, but they’ve also proven to be vulnerable in classic “let down” spots. The Bulldogs played Oregon to a 1 score game and beat UCLA outright on the road only to follow up with a mere 8 point win against UNLV and an outright loss at Hawaii. They’ve played 2 straight “big time” games against Nevada and San Diego State and have found a way to win, but I struggle to see them look as sharp for a third straight week. Boise State might be 4-4 on the season, but the talent is there. The Broncos picked up a super impressive outright win at BYU just a few weeks ago and will be unfazed entering this matchup. While establishing the run game could be a struggle, I’m putting my trust in QB Hank Bachmeier. The Broncos are “live dogs” in this Mountain West battle.
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): Baylor, Oregon, Arizona State(+148)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Each team responds to losing their Head Coach completely differently. For TCU, I don’t expect the team to respond well down the stretch of the season. Gary Patterson was and is TCU Football, and with the news of his exit, many of TCU’s best players are already on portal watch. The Horned Frog defense is not up to par this season, so I’d expect Baylor to be able to establish the running game and for the play-action game to open up for Baylor QB Gary Bohannon. It’s a true mystery who’s going to play for TCU in this one; star RB Zach Evans missed last week’s game(I’d be willing to bet he hits the portal), and QB Max Duggan is a game-time decision. In any case, I have a hard time seeing a red-hot Baylor team lose to a broken TCU bunch.
Washington(4-4) has underperformed expectations all season, and Jimmy Lake’s refusal to turn the QB responsibilities over to 5* freshman Sam Huard is going to bite him once again. The Ducks have one of the most talented defenses in the country and won’t have too much to worry about given the Huskies’ lack of creativity. Washington’s defense has been pretty solid as expected, but Oregon QB Anthony Brown really seems to have turned a corner. When RB CJ Verdell went down, it’s almost as if the Ducks were forced to open up the offense a little bit, which has paid off. Washington has had many opportunities to turn the tale of their season, and they’ve failed miserably. Oregon will win this game.
USC seems to be having some issues within their team right now after they deployed a 2 QB system last week. No matter who takes the majority of the snaps, they will be playing an uphill battle all night. The Trojans lost WR Drake London for the season last week; London virtually made up all of USC’s WR production(1,084 yards, 135 yards/game). While RB Keontay Ingram has had a nice season statistically, the Trojans still struggle mightily to finish drives; without London, I expect the offense to underperform. Arizona State inexplicably lost to Washington State last week as 16 point favorites, but I’m sticking strong with them here. Herm Edwards has accumulated a ton of talent during his tenure in Tempe, and he has a defense that should give the Trojans fits at all 3 levels. QB Jayden Daniels needs to respond strong tonight, and I think he will. ASU wins this game.
