I released 4 Best Bets yesterday and am back with 3 more plays for you, including one for tonight. I expect to add a play or two more before Saturday; to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Oregon State 1H +3 @ Washington–Friday 9:30 PM CT
This is a contrast in styles type of game; Oregon State is a run-first team, while Washington almost exclusively creates explosiveness through the air. On a night where wind and rain will be a factor(particularly early in this game), I like the way Oregon State’s style matches up with what’s proven to be a pretty shoddy Washington defense.
Oregon State RB Damien Martinez has emerged as the Beavers’ #1 back, running for nearly 300 yards over his last 2 games and 6.5 YPC on the season. Washington has been solid within their front 7 this year, but they haven’t shown me enough to where I can trust them against this physical Oregon State rushing attack. If Oregon State is able to establish the ground game, that’s going to open up a massive opportunity in the passing game against a Huskies defense that has allowed 11 Y/A or more to guys like Jayden de Laura and Tanner McKee this year. I don’t particularly care whether it’s Chance Nolan or Ben Gulbranson at QB for OSU tonight; those guys have almost identical numbers, both throwing for over 8 Y/A on the year.
The Washington passing game is good, but this offense doesn’t feature much balance. RB1 Wayne Taulapapa’s numbers are skewed from massive games against Portland State and Stanford; he is not a difference-maker in the ground game. While Washington’s OL has finally started to live up to their potential, Penix has slowly started to regress here over the last month as the competition has ramped up. Oregon State’s defense is much improved this season, particularly in the secondary. They held Caleb Williams to under 50% completion and just 5 Y/A, a performance that’s aged very nicely. With the run defense being their strength, I expect them to make Washington one-dimensional tonight.
The conditions early in this game clearly favor Oregon State’s ground-and-pound attack, and I’ve seen enough from this defense to trust them against a very predictable offense. It’s still hard to close out games on the road, and we’re getting a more favorable number in the 1H; I’ll back the Beavers early in this ballgame.
*CFB(1u): Kentucky 1H PK(-110) @ Missouri–Saturday 11 AM CT
Sentiment on Kentucky is low after they were blown out at Tennessee in loud fashion last week. Meanwhile, Missouri is coming off a win at South Carolina where the defense looked impressive. While I don’t believe Mark Stoops will ever be able to match up with the blue bloods in the SEC given his conservative style, this is the exact type of game where he makes his money.
The main matchup advantage I like for Kentucky is in their run game. Chris Rodriguez Jr was a 6 YPC back a year ago and has slowly gotten back into form after missing the first month of the season. Missouri, on the other hand, can absolutely be had in the run game. This is one of the worst run defenses in America last year, and while they’ve improved slightly, it doesn’t mean I trust them against this level of RB. Missouri does do a good job of limiting explosiveness over the top in the passing game, but with the efficiency I expect Kentucky to be able to run the ball at, I expect the 1-on-1 matchups to be there for QB Will Levis. Despite last week’s monstrosity against Tennessee, Levis is still over 9 Y/A on the season.
There is absolutely nothing special about Missouri’s offense. QB Brady Cook is under 7.5 Y/A and has thrown more INT’s than TD’s on the year. The Tigers offense lacks a consistent vertical passing game and rank 92nd in yards/play, a big reason why they can’t finish drives. The run game is perhaps slightly above average, but I don’t expect them to create much explosiveness against what’s been a pretty solid Kentucky run defense this year. I don’t worry about Kentucky’s defense despite them allowing 44 to Tennessee last week; they are clearly not built to step up in competition like that, but thankfully, they’re not being asked to in this matchup.
Why isolate Kentucky in the 1H? I have noticed(and been burned by) a trend where teams playing their 2nd straight road game tend to fade off considerably in the second half. In addition, it’s hard to close out games on the road, particularly in a tight matchup in this conference. With that said, I like the way Kentucky’s run first approach will fare in this matchup and think Missouri’s offense actually presents a favorable matchup for the Wildcats. 1H PK it is!
*CFB(1u): Clemson -3.5 @ Notre Dame–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
