Coming off a 6-2, +4.08u Week 10, we are really starting to hit a stride in CFB!
I expect to have another high-volume card here in Week 11, and I will roll all those plays out over the next few days. I have moved on 2 games that I want to go ahead and hand out and will follow up with more tomorrow morning.
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*CFB(1u): Rutgers/Michigan State UNDER 40.5–Saturday 11 AM CT
Rutgers Unders have been a thing of beauty for us this year, and it’s not hard to see why. The Scarlet Knights rank 127th in the country in yards/play but actually feature a very solid defense. This is a secondary that held both CJ Stroud and JJ McCarthy to under 7 Y/A, and the run defense is more than capable of holding MSU at bay. The Spartans got somewhat of a spark on the ground last week Illinois, but that still only amounted to 112 rushing yards. Aside from that, this has been a putrid unit that fails to step up on a consistent basis. QB Payton Thorne has had to shoulder the entire load and, as you might expect, has seriously regressed as a passer(7.1 Y/A) from where he was last year when he shared the backfield with Kenneth Walker III.
Michigan State’s strength defensively is stopping the run, and they won’t face much of a threat in that facet with Rutgers’ RB1 on the shelf. That leaves the Scarlet Knights with a below average run game to pair with what’s been putrid QB play. It’s been a bit of a revolving door at QB for Greg Schiano, but he seems to be riding the high-upside youngster Gavin Wimsatt. Wimsatt brings some mobility to the table, but he gives it right back with a 43% completion, 5.1 Y/A, and 2 TD vs 6 INT. I know Michigan State’s secondary hasn’t been particularly stout since the arrival of Mel Tucker, but we’re talking about a legitimate dream matchup here facing a bottom 5 offense in the country.
There are a few other elements in this matchup that clearly point towards a play on the Under. Both offenses rank in the bottom 10 in the country in pace, and each also ranks in the bottom 30 in red zone efficiency. I see this game playing out in the low-to-mid 30’s; think 21-10 or 24-10. I know this total is low, but anything at or above 38 presents a good opportunity to play this Under.
*CFB(1u): Wake Forest -3.5 vs North Carolina–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
North Carolina is on the second game of a tough back-to-back road stretch, while Wake Forest returns home after a tough road stretch of their own. Wake Forest is one of the most experienced teams in the country, while North Carolina is relying on 1st year players at a multitude of key positions.
In my opinion, one of the biggest stories in CFB should be that North Carolina is (somehow) 8-1 despite having one of the worst defenses in the country. This unit does nothing well and has been bailed out by having a superstar QB in Drake Maye. However, I believe this is the spot where UNC gets exposed for this glaring weakness. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman is a 5th year player that is having another very good year for the Demon Deacons(8.8 Y/A, 24 TD vs 9 INT). Paired with him are 4 separate WR’s that each have at least 25 catches and average over 14 yards/reception. I’ll concede that Wake Forest is mediocre in the run game and nothing to write home about along their OL, but once again, we have to consider how little resistance UNC’s defense provides. Appalachian State hung 61 on this unit, Notre Dame hung 45 on this unit, Miami totaled 496 passing yards on this unit, and even Virginia looked competent against the Tar Heels last week. I expect Sam Hartman to have a career day.
UNC QB Drake Maye has been incredible for the Tar Heels in his inaugural season; Maye has completed over 70% of his passes, thrown for over 9 Y/A, and holds a TD/INT ratio above 10. With all of this said, I wouldn’t exactly call the Tar Heels a balanced attack; RB health has been a major issue in Chapel Hill(Maye is the leading rusher), and the Tar Heels also struggle mightily to protect Maye(6 games with 3+ sacks). I wouldn’t call Wake Forest’s defense “good”, but I think they are solid along their Back 7 and should be able to win against UNC up front. For context, Wake Forest ranks 50th in defensive FEI, while North Carolina ranks 118th.
If UNC’s tactic of riding a 1st year QB was to ever burst into flames, it would be in a “second straight road game” spot at night against an arch rival that is riddled with experience. Both offenses are good, but I expect UNC’s defensive incompetence to finally catch up with them.
