Through 10 weeks of the CFB season, my record sits at 75-54-1(58%), +29.11u. In addition to these 5 free plays, I’ve reserved 7 CFB plays for my premium members. With another premium winner last night, my premium record moved to 61-28-1(68%), +46.9u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): South Florida TT UNDER 17.5(-125) vs Cincinnati–Fri. 5 PM CT
For a third straight week, undefeated Cincinnati played a game that was too close for comfort. The Bearcats understand that the College Football Playoff committee will do anything in their power to keep them out of the Top 4, and playing inferior teams down to the wire won’t help their cause. Tonight, they should completely outmatch South Florida; I’m expecting a total beatdown. However, because Cincinnati has shown some regression offensively, I feel more comfortable in just trusting the Cincinnati defense. South Florida unexpectedly put up 42 points against Houston last week, but it’s important to note that 14 of those points came via special teams; the Bulls recorded less than 400 total yards of offense. USF is rolling with true freshman QB Timmy McClain(54% completion, 7.3 Y/A), and their inability to establish the run won’t suddenly turn against an elite defense like Cincinnati. The motivation is there for Cincinnati to dominate this game, and I think they’ll do just that. Call it a 45-10 Bearcat win and, more importantly, a win on the USF TT Under.
*CFB(1u): Troy +7(-120) vs Louisiana–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Since losing at Texas to open the season, Louisiana has won 8 straight. However, in their 3 road games during that streak, they have won by a combined 11 points against Georgia Southern, South Alabama, and Arkansas State; those 3 opponents have a combined record of 8-19. Troy(5-4) has won 3 of their last 4 and played their 3 toughest opponents(South Carolina, Liberty, and Coastal Carolina) close to the very end. Dating back to last year, Troy almost upset undefeated Coastal Carolina late in the season in a similar scenario to this one. Louisiana QB Levi Lewis has had a disappointing season(61.7% completion, 7.4 Y/A), and I can’t trust him to turn things around in this spot. While the Ragin’ Cajuns defense is trustworthy, I refuse to acknowledge that Louisiana is 7 points better than Troy. Give me the points.
*CFB(1u): Colorado +17(-110) @ UCLA–Sat. 8 PM CT
A lot of people have written off Colorado, but did you know they beat a decent Oregon State team last week? Even more impressive, an offense that was labeled as inept was able to put up 37 points in the win. QB Brandon Lewis has thrown just 3 INT’s this season, so if the Buffaloes can continue to pound the rock with their RB’s, Lewis won’t be asked to do too much with his arm. UCLA is coming off a BYE week, but I’m not sure how high the motivation is for them in this spot. The Bruins had hopes of competing for a Pac12 championship this season, but sitting at 5-4(2-3 in conference), that now looks unlikely. The Bruins have USC on deck next week, a game that is likely on the front of their minds even a week before. Colorado’s strength on defense is at LB, which bodes well considering the Bruins’ offensive identity is their run game. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson should be back healthy for this one, but he’s been mostly unimpressive this season(59% completion, 7.9 Y/A). UCLA is just 2-3 at home this season, and the Rose Bowl creates little-to-no home field advantage for them. I expect Colorado to build off of last week’s win and keep this within the number.
*CFB(1u): Colorado/UCLA UNDER 57(-110)–Sat. 8 PM CT
Given that I expect Colorado to cover, I believe that to correlate pretty heavily to the Under. Colorado runs the 2nd fewest plays/game in CFB, so even if the Buffs build off of last week’s performance, that might show up more in the time of possession department than it does on the scoreboard. I do expect the Buffs to get stops and thus dictate the pace of this game. In that case, 57 is far too high of a total.
*CFB(1u): Nevada +3(-110) @ San Diego State–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
San Diego State suffered their 1st loss of the season 2 weeks ago to a Fresno State team that is built very similarly to this Nevada bunch. This game has major implications for the Mountain West “West” division race, and I’m trusting the better offense to pull through. Nevada QB Carson Strong is one of the top QB prospects in the country; with a cannon for an arm, what’s even more impressive is that he’s completed more than 70% of his passes this season. A 7.8 Y/A doesn’t do justice to the fact that he can and will beat teams vertically. San Diego State is allowing just 16.6 PPG this season, but as Fresno State proved with a 30 point performance 2 weeks ago, the Aztecs can be beaten by more prolific offenses. San Diego State’s offense is scoring just 19 PPG over their last 4 games and present virtually no threat through the air. Nevada has played a number of “high stakes” games already this season, so I expect them to be mentally prepared for what’s to come from a physical Aztec bunch. I think Nevada wins this game outright, but I’ll take the 3 points as insurance.
