I have handed out 5 plays already and am back today with 2 more for you. I am waiting on a few key injury notes to decide if I will add anything tomorrow morning; to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Minnesota -17.5 vs Northwestern–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Sentiment is higher on Northwestern than it should be after everybody saw them play Ohio State to a respectable 21-7 loss last week. The weather had a major impact on them game and ultimately kept a lethal Ohio State offense at bay. Let’s not forget: Northwestern is 1-8 on the year with losses Miami OH and Southern Illinois. 2 weeks ago, they went on the road and allowed 33 points to an Iowa offense that had looked inept in every facet until they played the Wildcats.
I am playing on the Gophers with the expectation that backup QB Athan Kaliakmanis gets the start. The freshman has seen the majority of his work come in 2 tough road environments(@ Penn State, @ Nebraska); I’d say 8.8 Y/A is beyond impressive all things considered. The youngster also brings an element of mobility that Minnesota doesn’t get out of senior QB Tanner Morgan. The identity of this Gophers offense, however, is the run game. Mohamed Ibrahim is a true workhorse that is well over 1,000 yards a 5 YPC on the season, and Minnesota’s OL has exceeded my expectations. Throw out what you saw last week from Northwestern when Ohio State was forced to be one-dimensional; the Wildcats have allowed 200+ rushing yards to Miami OH, Duke, and Maryland this year. With the way I expect Minnesota to win up front and establish the run, that’s going to open up quite a few opportunities in the vertical passing game.
Northwestern has seemingly moved away from Ryan Hilinski as their starting QB in favor of Brendan Sullivan. In my opinion, Sullivan’s 73% completion is incredibly misleading when you consider he’s throwing for less than 6 Y/A on the year. Minnesota does a good job of limiting explosion over the top, so I won’t hold my breath and expect this to be the spot where Northwestern strikes gold in the passing game. In addition, Northwestern has not gotten much explosion out of RB Evan Hull(4.2 YPC); Minnesota’s run defense has been strong this year and should be able to force the Wildcats into obvious passing downs.
This feels awfully similar to when I backed Minnesota at home a few weeks ago against Rutgers, and it’s probably even more favorable given Northwestern’s struggles in stopping effective rushing attacks. This number should start with a 2; I see something along the lines of a 34-10 win for Minnesota.
*CFB(1u): Maryland 1H +6.5 @ Penn State–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
As I handicap this matchup, I really don’t see a whole lot separating these two teams. Both QB’s are right at 8 Y/A, each team is solid but not spectacular in the trenches. Perhaps the biggest separating factor is Penn State’s secondary, but I think this is a matchup where they are going to get pushed.
Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa was quite ineffective at Wisconsin last week, but as was routine in the Big10 last week, weather played a major factor in that game. Tagovailoa is still completing 70% of his passes this year at an efficient 8 Y/A; he has quite the slew of WR’s to work with that I believe can go toe-to-toe with this Penn State secondary. Perhaps the most underrated part of this Maryland offense is their run game as both Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton are over 6 YPC this season. Penn State stepped up well in their run defense against Ohio State, but let’s not forget what Michigan did to this unit a few weeks ago. With the threat of a reliable passing game present, I think Maryland is able to establish the run here. Maryland’s OL has slipped a bit in Big10 play, but I haven’t seen enough out of Penn State’s pass rush to where I’m overly worried about the Terps getting beat up front.
We all know who Penn State QB Sean Clifford is: a serviceable but unspectacular QB. He has consistently found himself under 8 Y/A across the past 3 seasons. Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton’s numbers are still inflated from blowup games early in the season against Ohio and Auburn; he has been held to 4.5 YPC or below against Purdue, Central Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana. Penn State’s OL has exceeded expectations this year, but that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable(especially in the run blocking category). I view both Penn State’s offense and Maryland’s defense as solid but not great; I think the path to stops is there for the Terps.
Why Maryland 1H vs full game? I have been burned by teams playing their 2nd straight road game flaming out in the 2nd Half on multiple occasions this season, and we are getting a better number in the 1H. I would’ve made this 1H number closer to 4, so I see value backing Maryland early in this game.
