I released 4 Early Best Bets yesterday and am back today with 2 more Week 12 plays for you. Let’s make it a great weekend!
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*CFB(1u): Florida/Vanderbilt OVER 57–Saturday 11 AM CT
Vanderbilt picked up a huge win at Kentucky last week, and it was anything but a fluke. The Commodores out-gained the Wildcats by over 100 yards and ran for 264 yards. With QB Mike Wright at the helm, this is an extremely dangerous rushing attack; Wright averages over 8 YPC on the ground and RB Re’Mahn Davis has recorded back-to-back 100 yard games. Florida’s defense completely stuffed South Carolina last week(we were on the Gators), but I think that has a lot more to say about the incompetence of the Gamecocks offense. This is the same Florida defense that allowed 400+ yards to South Florida, 528 yards to LSU, and even allowed 24 first half points to Texas A&M and backup QB Haynes King. I don’t like how Florida’s issues stopping the run matchup with Vanderbilt; I think the Commodores can get into the mid-to-upper 20’s here.
The reason I can’t bet Vanderbilt +14 is because I have zero trust in their defense to get stops against any offense with a pulse. They’ve allowed 50 or more on 3 separate occasions in SEC play, and this is another very tough matchup. Don’t look now, but this Florida offense has really rounded into form; they put up 41 in College Station a few weeks ago and backed it up with a 38 point performance last week. I think that’s sustainable due to their stout OL and explosiveness out of the backfield. Anthony Richardson is not the most consistent passer in the world, but this is still a Gators offense that ranks 27th in yards/play.
I see this as a 38-27 type of game with potential for explosive plays on both sides. I do think Vanderbilt covers, but the much better way to play this game is the Over.
*CFB(1u): Pittsburgh -7 vs Duke–Saturday 11 AM CT
Give Duke credit for carrying a 7-3 record into this point of the season, but I’m not really sold on the Blue Devils. Their best win is on the road against 5-5 Miami, a game in which the Hurricanes turned the ball over 8 times and Duke gained just 336 total yards. Additionally, Duke has a loss at Georgia Tech on their resume. While Duke has held up pretty well against the run, I still believe their secondary is very vulnerable. Pitt QB Kedon Slovis is far from a world beater(7.6 Y/A), but with the way Pitt is able to consistently establish the run, I think this is a matchup where he will be able to create explosive plays in the vertical passing game.
What ultimately gets me on Pitt is the way I think their defense will be able to take over this game. In recent weeks, Pitt has finally lived up to the bill and developed into one of the most lethal pass rushing teams in America. With what we knew they had in their Back 7, I believe this to be a Top 15 defense in America. Duke doesn’t have one glaring weakness offensively, but they don’t have to talent to be able to step up in this type of matchup. QB Riley Leonard has regressed as a passer throughout the season after a hot start(7.6 Y/A), and I don’t see Duke creating much explosion on the ground.
Laying this many points with Pat Narduzzi can be tough given his conservative nature, but in this particular matchup, I do see Pitt coming out with a balanced attack offensively. I see this as a double-digit win for Pitt. I also really wanted to be on this Under, but seeing it be bet down 5 points from open takes away all the value there.
