The final week of the CFB regular season is upon us! I’ve locked in 6 plays for this weekend and will add additional plays to this post as we approach the weekend.
To receive a text when I add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Florida/Florida State OVER 58–Friday 6:30 PM CT
Florida State’s offense is playing at a championship level this year, and I think it’s quite sustainable. The OL has allowed just 1 sack/game this year and paved the way for Trey Benson and Treshaun Ward to run for over 6.5 YPC. QB Jordan Travis has thrown more than 5 times as many TD’s as INT’s, is a factor in the run game, and has more proficiency in the vertical passing game than given credit for(8.9 Y/A). Florida’s defense is incredibly mediocre, particularly within their Front 7. Even in the secondary, we saw the likes of Jayden Daniels and Haynes King(in the 1st Half) move the ball through the air pretty easily against the Gators. Given the multiplicity and effectiveness up front, I see FSU getting into the mid-to-upper-30’s.
Florida State’s defense is going to look much improved on paper, but who have they played in the last month? Good performances vs Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, and Louisiana is not enough to make me forget the cracks they showed against formidable offenses earlier in the season. Clemson RB Will Shipley ran for over 6 YPC on this defense, and Louisville found a way into the 30’s as well. Florida obviously laid a clunker in Nashville last week, but this offense has shown major strides throughout the season. Even in the loss, Anthony Richardson threw for 400 yards against Vanderbilt last week; we already know what he can do in the run game(6.6 YPC). Additionally, the Gators are stout up front and feature a pair of 6 YPC backs.
I see something along the likes of a 38-27 or 38-30 game; there is value on this Over when you contextualize Florida State’s recent defensive success.
*CFB(1u): Clemson 1H -7.5 vs South Carolina–Saturday 11 AM CT
Credit South Carolina for taking advantage of a clear weakness that was Tennessee’s secondary last week. With that said, we have to remember how inept this offense was for most of SEC play. They are still not healthy at RB and have been handled up front for most of the season; even including last week’s monster performance, QB Spencer Rattler is still under 8 Y/A on the season. Ever since the debacle against Wake Forest, Clemson’s secondary has really sharpened up to pair with what we knew was already a very stout Front 7. I expect South Carolina to revert right back to looking like a mediocre-below average offense.
I’m really not impressed with South Carolina’s defense, either. While they are pretty solid in their secondary, they routinely allow teams to establish the run given their relative weakness within their Front 7. Clemson RB Will Shipley has had a good sophomore campaign(5.6 YPC), and Phil Mafah has emerged as a solid complementary option. I’m not a big DJ Uiagaleilei guy, but with the way I think the run gets established in this matchup, I expect their to be opportunities for #5 in the vertical passing game.
I’m isolating this in the 1H because I do worry about a potential backdoor. Clemson has the ACC Championship to worry about next week, and I don’t trust their second-team secondary to hold South Carolina’s offense at bay. With 1’s on 1’s, however, I expect Clemson to take a double-digit lead into the Half.
*CFB(1u): Texas A&M +10 vs LSU–Saturday 6 PM CT
LSU is the most overrated team in College Football; it’s laughable to consider them a legitimate playoff contender(we won’t have to worry about that for much longer). Specifically, this team has looked anything but impressive on the road this season. Against Auburn, they were out-gained by 168 yards but forced 4 turnovers to escape with a win. Against Arkansas, they gained less than 300 yards vs a bottom 2 defense in the SEC; if KJ Jefferson plays that game, LSU loses by double-digits.
In both of those aforementioned road games, LSU QB Jayden Daniels threw for less than 100 yards in each and was sacked a combined 10 times. Say what you want about Texas A&M’s season, but the clear strength of that team is their pass defense, making this another tough matchup for Daniels. While pass rush is not a calling card of this A&M defense, I can’t overlook how bad LSU’s offensive line is; Daniels has been sacked 4+ times in OVER HALF of LSU’s games this season. Does this sound like a team you want to lay double-digits in a tough road environment with?
Texas A&M’s offense is expected to welcome back their leading rusher Devon Achane(5.6 YPC) and leading WR Evan Stewart for the season finale. QB Conner Weigman is still a true freshman that has taken his lumps, but I have been impressed with his ability to take care of the football(6 TD vs 0 INT this season). With 5 star QB’s, there is always the chance that the talent shines when you least expect it. LSU’s front 7 has impressed me this season, and the emergence of LB Harold Perkins adds to that strength. However, I think the Tigers secondary leaves some to be desired and is not unbeatable. Advantage is still towards LSU on this side of the matchup, but they won’t totally overwhelm Texas A&M to the degree many believe they will.
With A&M not going to a bowl, this becomes the Aggies’ pseudo bowl game. At night, at Kyle Field is not a desirable spot for anybody, and as such, I see this as a major step-up spot for the Aggies. Additionally, LSU is clearly looking ahead to their matchup with Georgia next weekend in Atlanta. LSU should win, but as history has shown, it won’t be in convincing fashion.
*CFB(1u): Syracuse/Boston College UNDER 47–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Boston College’s offense has been one of the most disappointing units in all of CFB this season. Right on cue, the Golden Eagles added to that disappointment by getting blanked at Notre Dame last week. With BC, it all starts up front; they’ve allowed 14 sacks over the last 3 games and provided no push in the run game, as leading RB Phil Garwo is averaging just 3 YPC on the season. I wouldn’t call Syracuse’s front 7 great, but the one thing I like about Syracuse’s defense is their ability to limit explosiveness through the air. Even teams like UCONN and Virginia Tech have outclassed this BC offense.
To a lesser degree, Syracuse faces some of these same issues. QB Garrett Schrader has been sacked 3 times/game over his last 4 starts, and he has regressed significantly in the vertical passing game over the course of the season. RB Sean Tucker’s numbers look fine, but when compared to his talent level and upside, it’s clear that Syracuse’s OL issues are holding back what could be a solid offense. I’m of the belief that Boston College’s defense is actually pretty solid; like Syracuse, they do an especially good job of limiting explosiveness through the air. Given the high floor of their pass rush, I think they will give Syracuse many of the same troubles they’ve experienced in recent weeks.
Anything above 45 presents a good opportunity to play on the Under here.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/Texas Tech OVER 63.5–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
I have some PTSD after seeing Oklahoma score 28 points in the 1Q last week only to get blanked the rest of the way, but I’m still of the belief that, when Dillon Dabriel is healthy, this is a trustworthy offense. Gabriel has left a ton of plays on the field this year, yet he still has thrown for over 8 Y/A and holds an 18:5 TD/INT ratio. The Sooners have impressed me along their OL all year, paving the way for RB Eric Gray to have a massive year(1200 yards, 6.5 YPC). Texas Tech is fairly physical up front, but with my expectation the Sooners win up front, the Red Raiders have proven to be leaky in their Back 7 in their tougher matchups.
Like Oklahoma OC Jeff Lebby, Texas Tech OC Zach Kittley runs his offense at a maniacally fast pace. While Texas Tech has played QB roulette this year, they have finally settled on Tyler Shough as their full time starter. Shough has never played a full season, but his past success within multiple systems(8.9 career Y/A) clearly elevates the floor of this offense that they didn’t have with Behren Morton or Donovan Smith. I worry about this offense facing good pass rushing teams, but that doesn’t apply in this matchup given Oklahoma’s mediocrity in that department. Give the Sooners credit for improving in their Back 7 over the course of the season, but I think last week’s “success” has a lot more to say about Oklahoma State’s ineptitude offensively. Quite frankly, I’m not sold the Sooners’ defense has put it all together.
With 2 fast-paced teams, you don’t need perfection from either side to cash the Over. I think this is a “first to 35 wins” kind of game with the potential to go much higher.
Added Wednesday Night
*CFB(1u): UCLA -10 @ California–Friday 3:30 PM CT
UCLA suffered a heartbreaking loss to USC last weekend and is now officially out of Pac12 title contention. While some teams could succumb to a “flat spot” in response, I’m betting on Chip Kelly to have his veteran-laden team ready to take the anger out on a clearly inferior opponent. California is out of bowl contention themselves and is probably content after beating rival Stanford last week. Unlike other conferences, I don’t believe the bottom half of the Pac12 is equipped to take advantage of even the best of spots when stepping up against the top half of the conference.
UCLA has one of the most balanced offenses in the country. RB Zach Charbonnet comes into this matchup over 7 YPC, and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a true dual threat, completing 70% of his passes at over 8 Y/A and being a major part of the Bruins run game. While the Cal run defense has stepped up well at times this year, do I really expect them to hold down Charbonnet and DTR for the full 60 minutes? From there, I expect DTR to take advantage of a pretty weak Cal secondary, a unit that is left hanging out to dry by the Golden Bears’ non-existent pass rush.
Cal’s offense is the definition of mediocre. QB Jack Plummer is throwing for under 7 Y/A at just a 62% completion rate, and he is often found under immense pressure in his tougher matchups. RB Jadyn Ott’s numbers don’t look bad on the surface, but if you take away one fluky performance vs Arizona which still accounts for over 30% of his yardage output, he has been mediocre as well. As we saw last week, UCLA’s defense is far from stellar. I was defintley expecting them to step up better than they did against the run, but to a certain degree, they got beat by a superior set of talent. That is something that simply doesn’t apply in this matchup, especially considering I’m expecting them to win up front vs this Golden Bears OL.
Perhaps I’d be more worried about UCLA getting themselves up off the mat if they hadn’t laid an egg vs Arizona the week before they played the Trojans. I’m expecting a good bounce back performance from this group and a 2 TD+ win.
