In addition to these 7 free plays, I have reserved 6 CFB play for my premium members. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Washington St/Washington UNDER 44.5(-110)–Friday 7 PM CT
Washington had playoff aspirations in the preseason but have been let down by their offense week-after-week. If Jimmy Lake would’ve made a switch at QB earlier in the season, he’d likely still have a job, but the decision to keep Dylan Morris at QB has been a costly one. Morris is not confirmed as this week’s starter, but it wouldn’t make much sense to throw true freshman Sam Huard in to start his first game in the last week of the season. Either way, the passing game certainly doesn’t benefit from what is a stagnant running attack. The Huskies O-Line is arguably the most disappointing unit in the country(according to where I rated them preseason). Washington State might not be a program known for defense, but they’ve certainly stepped up to the plate this season. Excluding their game against Oregon, the Cougars have allowed less than 21 PPG since September 25th; their ability to stop the run will force Washington into obvious passing downs and, thus, stalled drives. As disappointing as Washington’s offense has been, their defense has lived up to expectations(21 PPG). Washington State’s offense is pretty mediocre across the board and run just 67.3 plays/game(99th in CFB), so I’d expect the Huskies defense to find a way to get some stops. I’m expecting an ugly game where the first team to 20 wins.
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): Ohio State, Navy, Clemson(+103)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Ohio State is in too good of current form offensively for me to look against them here, even in arguably the toughest environment in the sport. C.J Stroud had his Heisman moment last week in a 56 point output against Michigan State and is now averaging exactly 10 yards/attempt. He has the best WR group in CFB to go along with a home-run threat at RB in TreVeyon Henderson(7.3 YPC). Michigan will bring a lethal pass rush all day, but the Ohio State OL is no slouch themselves having allowed just 9 sacks all season. Michigan is good at all 3 levels defensively, but there’s no way I’m expecting them to contain this Buckeye offense over a 60 minute game. Ohio State has turned a corner defensively since being run all over by Oregon and should be able to sell out to stop the run. I’m not that high on OSU’s secondary, but I don’t think Michigan has the playmakers on the outside to expose that weakness. Buckeyes find a way to win in Ann Arbor.
Navy might be 2-8, but they’ve been competitive in every AAC game they’ve played this season. Temple is 3-8 on the season and have totally thrown in the towel on the season; on their current 6 game losing streak, they’re losing by an average of 29 PPG. Navy should be able to notch a win here before gearing up for the Army game in 2 weeks.
South Carolina found a way to beat Auburn at home last week and also smoked Florida earlier in the month. Sitting at 6-5, Shane Beamer has done a terrific job with this Gamecocks team here in Year 1. However, I don’t think they’re anywhere near ready to compete with Clemson, even in a down year for the Tigers. Clemson’s defense has been their mainstay all season, allowing just 16 PPG. South Carolina has created points via their defense, but their offense alone is a very weak unit. Clemson ran the ball all over Wake Forest last week, and DJ Uiagalelei even found a rhythm in the vertical passing game. Kudos to Beamer for a great first year, but his team has no shot in this one.
*CFB(1u): Maryland -1.5(-110) @ Rutgers–Sat. 11 AM CT
It’s hard to find much good to say about either of these teams, but Rutgers’ inability to throw the football is what stands out in this matchup. QB Noah Vedral averages just 6.1 yards/attempt and completes less than 60% of his passes; to make matters worse, RB Isaih Pachecho is averaging just 3.7 YPC this season. This incompetence has led to Rutgers averaging just 13.3 PPG in conference play this season. Maryland’s offense was clearly overrated after a fast start to the season, but at least QB Taulia Tagovailoa has shown some playmaking ability(68% completion, 7.8 Y/A, 22 TD’s). The Terps also surprisingly ran for 181 yards against Michigan last week. I’m seeing a Maryland offense that, while not great, is leaps and bounds better than what Rutgers is putting out there. For that reason, I like Maryland here.
*CFB(1u): Texas Tech/Baylor UNDER 52(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Baylor recorded another impressive win at Kansas State last week and now find themselves in a position to play for the Big12 Championship(if OKST beats OU). However, the Bears lost QB Gerry Bohannon to a rather gruesome leg injury last week; all signs currently point towards freshman Blake Shapen making his first career start. Shapen might have higher upside than Bohannon, but I seriously doubt Dave Aranda is going to put too much on his young QB’s plate in this one. The Bears have been a run-first, slow-paced team all season, and if anything, I’d expect that to remain even more true this week. Texas Tech does feature a pair of stud LB’s that can stop the run, but I still expect the Bears to take a conservative approach in this spot. Baylor’s run defense has been absolutely phenomenal this season; they’ve held BYU, Texas, and Oklahoma all to under 102 rushing yards already this season. Texas Tech hasn’t done much to instill hope that they can crack the code on this Bears defense, meaning the game will fall on the arm of freshman QB Donovan Smith. In a similar matchup last week against Oklahoma State, the Red Raiders were shut out 23-0, and Smith had just 83 yards through the air on 29 attempts. While he might improve marginally, I’m expecting this game to play out similarly. I like the Under here.
*CFB Teaser(1u): Florida State +8.5 @ Florida AND Florida State/Florida UNDER 65(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Florida and Florida State might each be 5-6 at the moment, but these programs couldn’t be in more different places. Florida has dropped 4 of their last 5 games, with their lone win coming against FCS Samford(they allowed 52 points in the win). This has led to the firing of HC Dan Mullen and the talk around this program being on everything but this football game. Meanwhile, Florida State enters this game off of 2 straight impressive wins over Miami and Boston College. While the Seminoles got off to a rough start this season, they’ve consistently shown fight and have played the likes of Notre Dame and Clemson down to the wire. With Jordan Travis at QB, FSU is very dynamic in the run game but can also sneakily beat you deep in the passing game. Florida has shown a lack of effort defensively at times over the past few games, but even so, Florida State isn’t built to light up the scoreboard. The Florida offense has shown both an inability and unwillingness to establish the run game, leaving QB Emory Jones alone in trying to get that offense rolling. The Gators are 10-1 this season in the total yards department, yet often see drives squander in the opposition’s territory. Florida State is physical up front and should be able to manage this one-dimensional offense. I like teasing both Florida State to +8.5 as well as the Under up to 65.
*CFB(1u): LSU TT UNDER 20(-120) vs Texas A&M–Sat. 6 PM CT
Texas A&M has an exceptional defense, yet you might not be so sure given this TT posted for LSU. The Tigers have averaged less than 18 PPG over their past 4 games, yet the oddsmakers are expecting them to score 20+ against the best defense they’ve played in that stretch. While the LSU running game has somewhat picked up over the course of the season, the Tigers still don’t have a guy who’s averaging 5 YPC on the ground. In addition, with Garrett Nussmeier out, the Tigers are stuck with an immobile Max Johnson at QB. I expect the Aggies to win up front throughout the course of this game and make life very hard on Johnson and this LSU offense.
*CFB(0.6u): Oklahoma ML(+160) @ Oklahoma State–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
I could see this game playing out one of many ways, but there is a better chance that Oklahoma wins this game than this price would indicate. QB Caleb Williams has been held at bay in the passing game each of the past 2 weeks, but prior to that, Williams delivered 4 straight monster performances through the air. This Oklahoma State defense specializes in their front 7 and should be able to keep the Sooners from getting an established run game, but Caleb Williams still has the ability to completely take over a game with his sheer ability(watch the 2nd half of the Texas game). Oklahoma State’s offense doesn’t scare me because of Spencer Sanders’ inconsistencies in the passing game; the Sooners are physical in the front 7 and should match up well with Ok State’s run-heavy attack. At this price, a sprinkle on Oklahoma is worth a shot.
