My CFB record entering conference championship weekend is 90-74-1, +25.7u. In addition to these 3 free plays, I’ve reserved 5 plays for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 62% clip(77-47-1) and have netted my members +42.8u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Western Kentucky TT OVER 38.5(-110)–Fri. 6 PM CT
Western Kentucky’s offense has been a juggernaut all season long, and they don’t appear to be stopping now. The Hilltoppers rank 4th in the country in points/game(43.3 PPG) and are led by one of the best QB’s in college football. After 4 seasons at FCS Houston Baptist, Bailey Zappe entered the FBS as a senior and has totally lit it up. Zappe is averaging 414 yards/game this season while completing more than 70% of his passes; he’s also added 52 TD’s through the air. While the Conference USA is largely weak, Western Kentucky played a strong non-conference schedule that included Army, Indiana, and Michigan State. In those 3 games, the Hilltoppers averaged a respectable 32 PPG. UTSA was a cool story and all sitting at 11-0 prior to last week, but they laid a complete egg against 5-6 North Texas, losing 45-23. These teams actually played earlier in the season, with UTSA inching out a close 52-46 win over WKU(I cashed a 2u winner on the Over 70 in that one). In that game, the Hilltoppers left plenty of points on the field and should’ve easily put up 50+. Even looking at last week’s game, Zappe completed less than 50% of his passes and threw for just 6.8 yards/attempt, and the Hilltoppers still put up 53 points against Marshall. This offense is built to put up crooked numbers, and you’d have a hard time convincing me they won’t put up 40+ tonight.
*CFB(1u): Iowa 1H +6.5(+105) vs Michigan–Sat. 7 PM CT
Michigan pulled off the “impossible” last week with an upset win over Ohio State. If you follow CFB, there was perhaps no greater pressure on any program in the country to get a monkey off their back more than Jim Harbaugh and Michigan. It’s hard to say that this is a “let down spot” for Michigan given they have a berth to the playoff on the line(and I’m not saying it is), but it’s also worth noting that Michigan lives to beat Ohio State. The Wolverines employed a run heavy attack last week and totally dominated Ohio State up front, but I’m not so sure they’ll be able to do the same against Iowa. The Hawkeyes defense has held opponents to just 17 PPG this season have been respectable in their tougher matchups; numerous teams across the country would be 11-1 or 12-0 if they had Iowa’s defense. Michigan threw the kitchen sink at Ohio State last week and gave Iowa everything to prepare for. If Iowa can stop the run in this game, they will force Michigan QB Cade McNamara into unfamiliar territory. McNamara is a great game manager, but he’s not somebody I trust in obvious passing downs, especially when matching up with an Iowa defense that has forced the most INT’s in College Football this season. I think Michigan will be surprised in how tough this Hawkeye defense really is. I actually feel better about this Iowa offense than I did a few weeks ago. QB Spencer Petras doesn’t have great overall numbers and hasn’t been well protected this season, but after suffering an injury, he came back into the Nebraska game last week and led the Hawkeyes to a comeback victory. I think we’ll see one of Petras’s better performances this season, particularly because I think Iowa will be at least serviceable in the run game. RB Tyler Goodson got off to a slow start to the season, but over the past month, he has eclipsed the 100 yard mark 3 separate times, including against respectable defenses like Illinois and Nebraska. If there’s an area of Michigan’s defense you can pick on, it’s their LB unit. They were absolutely torched by Kenneth Walker of Michigan State(albeit in a different type of matchup) and have proven to be vulnerable at times. Iowa might not light up the scoreboard in this one(in fact, I can almost guarantee they won’t), but at the very least I expect them to be able to play some ball control. I’ll take the 6.5 points with Iowa in the 1H as I fully expect them to be competitive early on.
*CFB(1u): Wake Forest/Pittsburgh OVER 71(-110)–Sat. 7 PM CT
Wake Forest started out the season 8-0 because they played an incredibly weak schedule, but after playing better competition in the month of November, the Demon Deacons revealed their true colors. While they went 2-2 down the stretch of the season, the defense allowed an average of 49 PPG against North Carolina, NC State, and Clemson. Last week, they absolutely drubbed Boston College by a score of 41-10. However, when you look deeper, BC QB Phil Jurkovec went 3/11 for 19 yards through the air because he was playing at less than 50%. When Wake Forest has played the better offenses in the ACC, they’ve been completely exposed. Pitt falls right in line as one of the top offenses in the country, averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. QB Kenny Pickett has had a Heisman-caliber season, throwing for 40 TD’s while completing 68% of his passes. With a Y/A at 8.8, Pickett has proven his ability to pick apart defenses. As Pickett has continued to torch defenses, the Panther running game has really opened up, improving drastically throughout the stretch of the season. Wake struggles most with the run, and I feel very confident that they won’t handle Pickett well either. Despite all of this, Wake Forest has put themselves in this position because they too have a prolific offense; like Pitt, they’re averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. QB Sam Hartman holds a Y/A mark at a good 8.8 and has thrown for 34 TD’s this season. While the senior QB is completing just 60% of his passes on the season and has also thrown 10 INT’s, Hartman has proven the ability to put the team on his back game-after-game. Pittsburgh has sputtered somewhat in these kind of matches this season, allowing 38 to Virginia and Miami late in the season. Each of these teams rank in the Top 5 in the country in plays/game, so plenty of opportunities will be available. This total doesn’t do justice to what each of these offenses can do; I’ll play the Over.
