We bring in a record of 5-6, -0.82u into Week 2. Last year, I hit at a 55% clip in CFB and netted +27.35u.
I’m shooting to have the rest of my card out tomorrow, but there are a few spots I might wait to play closer to Saturday. To be sure, join my Telegram to receive a text when I release/add any plays.
*CFB(1.5u): Baylor/BYU UNDER 53.5–Sat 9/10; 9:15 PM CT
Some of you may have PTSD from BYU burning us on the Under from this past week. BYU was able to jump out to a 28-0 lead in the first 10 minutes of the game off of a slew of flukes(Pick 6, jet sweep for a 75 yard TD). South Florida was clearly overmatched, something that I don’t think holds true in this matchup. Both pace(or lack thereof) and good defensive matchups will be on our side.
I am high on this BYU passing game, as those of you who tailed the OVER 8 wins preseason bet know. However, this is an extremely tough matchup for a multitude of reasons. Baylor had a Top 10 defense in the country a year ago and returned their entire two-deep on the Front 4 for this season. While BYU’s OL figures to be a strength, this is going to be a heavy-weight level matchup in the trenches. Cal RB transfer Chris Brooks had a good BYU debut against South Florida, but I still think he’s a downgrade from what BYU had a year ago in RB Ty Allgeir. Baylor has a stick in MLB Dillon Doyle, and in general, it’s going to be extremely tough to establish any sort of run game on this Baylor front 7. While Baylor’s secondary took a hit over the offseason, they still return their top cover corner. BYU’s WR’s are not at full strength; Gunner Romney did not play in the Opener and is questionable for Saturday, as is fellow starter Puka Nacua after he injured his foot in Saturday’s win. When you consider that BYU ranked 100th in pace last year, I think there are enough road blocks in the way that prevent an explosive night for the Cougars offense.
Baylor QB Blake Shapen won the starting job this spring, but this is his first career road start. Shapen has looked very efficient early in his career, but he threw for less than 7 Y/A last season. One of the big question marks around this Baylor offense is at the WR position; when you factor in BYU’s reliability in their secondary, I have a hard time seeing Baylor create many explosive plays through the air. The Bears also lost their best player from last year’s team in RB Abram Smith(over 6 YPC in ‘21); nobody seems to have stepped up at that position, and BYU’s biggest strength defensively is stopping the run. BYU does struggle to pressure the QB, but they can absolutely hold up on the interior DL. Baylor ranked 91st in pace a year ago and have to replace too many pieces in the skill positions for me to think they’ll make a splash in this spot.
*CFB(1u): Iowa -3.5 vs Iowa State–Sat 9/10; 3 PM CT
*CFB(1u): Iowa State/Iowa UNDER 40.5–Sat 9/10; 3 PM CT
I’d like to personally thank everybody who dragged Iowa through the mud on social media after Iowa’s ugly 7-3 win this past Saturday. That has totally flipped the perception of this game and is partly to thank for this short line.
Kirk Ferentz has always had a bland and boring offense, but there’s a reason he’s the longest-tenured HC in college football; his system simply works. Iowa wins games with elite defense and special teams, and I think they’re as equipped to win that way now as they’ve ever been. Iowa had a top 5 defense in America a year ago, and I think they could be even better this year. Specifically, the Hawkeyes might have the best run defense in the country. Iowa State loses RB Breece Hall off of last year’s team, and if Hall couldn’t figure out this front 7, I have little-to-no faith Jihlel Brock(career 4.7 YPC) is up to the challenge. This is also the first big start of ISU QB Hunter Dekkers’ career. I don’t think he’s much of a downgrade from Brock Purdy, but this is still a tough spot for an inexperienced QB nonetheless. The Cyclones have a veteran-laden OL, but sometimes experience doesn’t directly correlate to production. Iowa managed to record 4 sacks in last week’s win, and I think they’ll be able to win up front in this matchup. That’s going to make life tough on a really young QB; I have a hard time seeing ISU being able to create any sort of explosive plays down the field.
Iowa is virtually no threat in the vertical passing game, and that could be even more true in this one. While I do expect Iowa to be able to win up front in the run game, their pass blocking can be suspect; this sets up poorly facing a really good Iowa State pass rushing unit. I think Ferentz will be content pounding the ground game considering Iowa State’s youth across their interior DL as well as some of their LB losses off of last year’s team. Iowa’s run game improved throughout the course of last season, and they will likely welcome back their RB1 Gavin Williams after he missed the season opener. Over time, I think Iowa State’s front 7 wears down and the Hawkeyes are able to start pulling off some big runs.
If the low total wasn’t a hint, this is going to be an extremely low-scoring game. Personally, I think anything over 38 is probably worth a look towards the Under. Each of these teams ranked in the bottom 30 in pace last year, and neither team’s path to victory is going to include much explosivity offensively. Ultimately, Kirk Ferentz has had Matt Campbell’s number throughout the course of this rivalry. Campbell has youth at too many spots for me to think this is the year he breaks through. I see something to the tune of a 20-10 Iowa win and will make both Iowa -3.5 and the Under official 1u plays.
*CFB(1u): Georgia State +7.5 vs North Carolina–Sat 9/10; 11 AM CT
*CFB(0.5u): Georgia State ML(+230) vs North Carolina–Sat 9/10; 11 AM CT
It’s hard to be too negative when you score 63 points in a win, but this North Carolina team has some CLEAR holes. The Tar Heels allowed 61 points to App State last week(40 in the 4th Quarter), showed little to-no discipline when trying to close out that game, and now will have to play their 2nd straight road game(the UNC athletic director should be fired for making this schedule).
Georgia State is not as well-known as Appalachian State, but they are an incredibly feisty team. They were able to record 3 sacks against Spencer Rattler last week and held up well against the pass. However, their strength is in that LB corps playing against the run, as South Carolina RB’s were held to just 91 yards on 28 carries last week. North Carolina had one of the worst OL’s in America a year ago; even if they improved marginally, they still allowed 3 sacks in that App State game. The Tar Heels have still yet to sort out their RB rotation, and this will undeniably be their toughest test to date. Tip your cap to Drake Maye for playing as well as he has through his first two starts, but he’s going to have to carry the load more than he’s proven to be able to for this Tar Heel offense to produce.
Georgia State QB Darren Grainger played horribly in that South Carolina game. Just average QB play would’ve made the Panthers a real threat in Columbia. Still, Grainger has shown enough throughout his career to where I think he will bounce back. A 4:1 TD/INT ratio in 2021 was impressive, and he’s also a massive threat as a runner(almost 1,000 yards in his career). Georgia State’s top 2 RB’s combined for 133 yards on just 18 carries against a pretty good South Carolina defense, so why wouldn’t I trust them against UNC? The Tar Heels allowed a staggering 6.7 YPC to App State’s top 2 RB’s a week ago, and I had concerns about this run defense coming into the season. UNC was very leaky against the pass a year ago, and not much was shown down the stretch of last week’s game to make me think that’s all that improved. I’m expecting a bounce back game from Grainger, something that’s not so wild when you consider the threat he is with his legs.
