In addition to these 5 free plays, I released 4 CFB plays to my premium members and also gave them a few ML sprinkles. Last week, my premium CFB plays went 4-1 and netted +5.35u. To become a premium member for just $50/month, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Boise State -26(-110) vs UTEP–Fri 8:30 PM CT
Boise State is coming off a disappointing Week 1 loss at UCF in which the offense completely melted down in the second half. Now, the Broncos return back home and get an absolute dream matchup. UTEP might be 2-0, but their wins have come against New Mexico State(widely regarded as the worst team in the FBS) and Bethune-Cookman(which was a mere 10 point victory). The Miners haven’t shown any signs of life in recent years against the Boise State’s of the world, so I see tonight as a perfect opportunity for the Broncos to find their rhythm and take out their frustrations on a clearly inferior opponent.
*CFB(1.5u): App State/Miami OVER 54(-110)–Saturday 6 PM CT
This is one of the more intriguing Week 2 matchups, and a single-digit line reflects that. However, rather than looking at a side in this one, I’m going to take a look towards this Over. While App State QB Chase Brice had his struggles at Duke last season, this new opportunity provides him a fresh start; last week, the super senior completed 20 of 27 passes and tossed for 2 TD’s in a win against East Carolina. He is afforded the luxury of having 2 great options at RB, each of whom rushed for 100 yards in last week’s game, as well as multiple dynamic receivers. There’s a notion that Miami HC Manny Diaz is some great defensive mind, but I refuse to believe it(as a Texas fan, ask me how I know). Even with 3 NFL-caliber DE’s on last year’s team, the defense had multiple blow-up performances(41 points allowed @ NC State, 62 points vs UNC). While it’s hard to knock them for losing to Alabama last week, the defense looked totally outmatched. I believe App State’s balance between the run and pass gives them an advantage entering this matchup. That being said, Miami’s offense should get back on track this week after facing possibly the best Alabama defense in the Saban era last week. While the ‘Canes couldn’t put together many chunk plays, D’Eriq King was still efficient, and Miami has a sizable athletic advantage matching up with App State’s defense. While I wouldn’t say I expect a shootout in Hard Rock Stadium, this total is simply too low given what each of these offenses can do.
*CFB(1u): Washington/Michigan UNDER 48.5(-110)–Saturday 7 PM CT
Washington might be out on the west coast, but they play much more of a “Big10” style of football than the novice fan would guess. While they aren’t expected to light up the scoreboard, there is no excuse for scoring 7 points against Montana, and they earned every bit of that loss last week. They had double the amount of first downs as Montana did in that game, but 3 turnovers from QB Dylan Morris put the nail in the coffin. I expect improvement this week, but this is Morris’s first true road test(there were no fans in Pac 12 games last season). I think Washington would be lucky to get to 21 in this game, but luckily for them, they’ve got a really stout defense to rely on. HC Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded HC that can rely on one of the stoutest front 7’s in the country; while there are some questions in the secondary, it helps that Michigan’s top WR Ronnie Bell was lost for the season last week. Michigan OC Josh Gattis deployed a very run-heavy attack in their opener; that simply won’t work against this Huskies front 7. Cade McNamara is a better QB than given credit for, but the loss of his top WR and a suspect OC could hold him back in this one. I don’t think either team eclipses the 24 point mark, and each defense should step up to keep this one under the total.
*CFB(1u): Utah/BYU UNDER 48.5(-110)–Sat 9:15 PM CT
The “Holy War” is one of the most intense and underrated rivalries in all of CFB. These two programs really don’t like each other, and when you combine that with the way these teams match up, I think we’re in for a rock fight in the late slate of action on Saturday. BYU was unimpressive in their 8 point win over lowly Arizona last week, and it’s clear that this offense doesn’t have what it takes to replace the explosivity last year’s team provided. Utah’s defense is consistently one of the best defenses in the Pac12, and because they specialize in the second level, I think they’ll force BYU QB Jaren Hall(making his first road start) into some uncomfortable situations. Utah looks much better on paper than BYU, but I’m not high on senior QB Charlie Brewer(I’ll die on the hill that the 2019 Baylor team was nothing more than a 7 win team that ran into a string of luck). A series of injuries have severely limited Brewer’s upside, and he is never going to lead an explosive offense. BYU was one of the best defenses in the country last year, and given that Utah looked sluggish against Weber State last week, I trust their defense to get stops and keep them in this game. This just missed being on my premium card, but it’s safe to say I really like this Under.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Virginia, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh(+147)–must be placed by Sat 10 AM CT
Virginia hosts Illinois very early on Saturday morning, and it’s clear they have the athletic advantage in this matchup. The Cavs looked solid in their opener last week, and I expect the versatility of QB Brennan Armstrong to be too much for the Illini to match. Illinois came back down to earth with a loss against UTSA last week, and their Week 0 win against Nebraska was due much more to the Cornhuskers’ inadequacies. Oklahoma State hosts in-state Tulsa in a rematch from one of the uglier games of the 2020 season. Tulsa had a solid 2020 season, but with LB Zaven Collins on to the NFL, I don’t know if there defense can be thought of in the same regard. In any case, their offense is pretty horrid, which was showcased last week in a 19-17 loss to UC Davis. Even with a talented QB in Zach Smith last season, the Golden Hurricanes left a lot to be desired on that side of the ball, so they don’t figure to match up well with a good Oklahoma State defense. While the Pokes squeaked by with only a 7 point win against Missouri State in the opener, much of that can be attributed to the late scratch of starting QB Spencer Sanders. Sanders is expected back for this game and provides a major upgrade from Shane Illingworth, so I think the Cowboys will display a much better product this week. Lastly, I’m very bullish on Pitt winning on the road at Tennessee. The Panthers are historically very bad in the red zone and struggle to establish the run, but Tennessee’s LB situation is pretty bleak at the moment. Kenny Pickett is as experienced as they come at the QB position, and Pat Narduzzi is accustomed to beating undisciplined teams like Tennessee. The Vols will run their offense with a lot more pace this season, but as far as I see it, that just gives Joe Milton more chances to screw up against what’s a stingy Pitt defense. Tennessee would be the sexy pick, but Pitt is the smart pick.
