I released my Week 2 Best Bets yesterday but have added 2 more plays since. I wouldn’t be surprised if I add a play or two more closer to Saturday, so be sure to join my Telegram group to receive a text when I release any and all plays!
2021 CFB: 106-88-1, +27.35u
2022 CFB: 5-6, -0.82u
*CFB(1u): Wisconsin 1H -9.5 vs Washington State–Sat 9/10; 2:30 PM CT
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma State -11 vs Arizona State–Sat 9/10; 6:30 PM CT
Mike Gundy has had every style of offense under the sun during his time at Oklahoma State. While many link him to more of an aggressive, pass-first style of attack(think of 2011 Brandon Weedon and/or 2017 Mason Rudolph), he opted for a run-heavy attack last year due to how elite his defense was. If Game 1 was any indication, Gundy is back to his more aggressive ways with a 4th year starting QB in Spencer Sanders. I know Sanders has had his ups-and-downs in Stillwater, but I believe he is poised for a breakout year. In the opener, he threw the ball 41 times for 406 yards, 4 TD’s, and 0 picks. Sanders is also a massive threat as a runner, and he ran for 57 yards and 2 scores in the Opener. This Arizona State defense is vulnerable given that they lack much of a pass rush and can be had in their depleted secondary. I expect Oklahoma State to win up front and give Sanders time to do his thing. We’ve seen plenty of QB’s like Sanders who played mediocre for most of their career and then finally put it together in their senior year; Kenny Pickett from just last year fit that same bill.
Arizona State is, quite frankly, a dead beat program. This is a team that lost 17 players to the portal this offseason and had 6 coaches resign after the NCAA announced it would crack down on the program for recruiting violations. Herm Edwards added Florida’s Emory Jones to run the offense; in and of itself, I don’t think that’s a bad move. However, much like last year, Jones has little to work with at the WR position. Jones is another dual-threat guy, but it’s hard to see him fixing his turnover issues with his stable of WR’s and a spotty OL. Arizona State does have a pretty good run game, but I think that plays into Oklahoma State’s strength which is undoubtedly the Front 7. I was encouraged at how they stopped the run vs CMU after losing a lot at that position off last year’s team. A lot was made of Oklahoma State allowing 44 points in Week 1, but half of those points came in the 4Q with Oklahoma State playing 2nd-3rd team DB’s. Oklahoma State is going to be able to hold up against the run, get pressure on Jones and force him into mistakes.
My read on Arizona State coming into the year is that they wouldn’t step up in competition particularly well. With the hits they took this offseason, I have a hard time seeing them hang with superior teams for 4 quarters. Ultimately, Mike Gundy’s shift back to an aggressive offense and Oklahoma State’s edge in the trenches will get me on them officially.
