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2021 CFB: 106-88-1, +27.35u
2022 CFB: 9-11, -0.99u
*CFB(1.5u): Penn State/Auburn UNDER 47.5(-110)–Sat 9/17; 2:30 PM CT
Auburn presents virtually no threat in the vertical passing game, as last week’s 24 point performance against San Jose State showed. QB TJ Finley might have a “big arm”, but Brian Harsin has no trust in his QB to make plays down the field given Finley’s career inconsistency(57% completion, 6.9 Y/A, 11 TD vs 9 INT) and the overall weakness that is the Auburn WR unit. As such, Harsin figures to put the games on the legs of his bellcow RB Tank Bigsby. The perception of Bigsby is that he is one of the best backs in the SEC, but the production doesn’t follow(likely due to the lack of a passing game). We saw Bigsby get bottled up for just 51 yards on 13 carries last week, and I think Penn State’s Front 7 will be up to the test. Penn State’s best asset defensively is their secondary; that was my read coming into the year, and it was confirmed in their performance vs a very pass-heavy attack in Purdue. I think Brian Harsin will be content keeping things vanilla, avoiding disaster through the air, and putting this game in the hands of his defense.
I am not a Sean Clifford guy; he is the epitome of “experience” not always equating to production. Clifford has thrown for less than 8 Y/A in each of the past 3 seasons, and he lost his clear #1 WR from a year ago in Jahan Dotson. If you’ll remember, Dotson’s performance was a big reason for Penn State’s success against Auburn last year. However, Sean Clifford is an adequate enough QB to produce when he has pieces around him. Unfortunately for him, I think Penn State is going to have a tough time establishing the run. Much of the experience in the RB room is not game-changing talent, and while freshman Nick Singleton had a breakout game vs Ohio last week, I think the major step up in opponent makes a repeat performance unlikely. Penn State’s OL was a major liability for the Nittany Lions a year ago; if their 3 YPC average vs Purdue was any indicator, they still have a long way to go. Auburn has a physical front 7 that I believe will both stop the run and pressure Clifford. Their secondary lost some key pieces from a year ago, but so did Penn State’s WR corps.
I expect this game to come down to the wire, and the most likely way I see that happening is via an ugly, low-scoring affair. It can’t be stated enough that the environment at Jordan-Hare stadium will likely be the toughest most of these Penn State players have ever played in. Under is the play.
*CFB(1.5u): Michigan State +3.5(-110) @ Washington–Sat 9/17; 6:30 PM CT
I circled this game preseason knowing Washington would be overvalued after a few easy wins vs clearly inferior competition. Washington was arguably the most disappointing team in the country a year ago, which is why Kalen Debour was brought in to take things over. Debour is much less of a “sure thing” as a HC than many would be willing to admit. While he does have familiarity with QB Michael Penix from their time together at Indiana, the simple reality is that Penix is not a very good QB(60% completion, 7.6 Y/A throughout his career). Washington’s run game might’ve improved slightly from a year ago, but I don’t think they carry over their early success into this matchup. The Huskies’ OL was perhaps the biggest disappointment by a single unit in the country a year ago; the level of production has not even eclipsed what the expectations are.
A lot of people think Michigan State was a “one-hit wonder” after last year’s New Years 6 run, but I’m not so sure. I like QB Payton Thorne(8.5 Y/A each of the past two seasons), and he has a game-changing receiver on the outside in the form of Jayden Reed. Losing RB Kenneth Walker was a hit, but I like the acquisitions Mel Tucker made in the transfer portal this offseason; both Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard were above 5 YPC at the P5 level coming into this season. The Spartans are also stout up front on both sides of the ball. They are experienced along their OL and were a productive unit a year ago, and their defense has managed 12 sacks already through just 2 games. The clear weakness for Michigan State a year ago was their pass defense, but I think the market is grossly overestimating Penix’s ability to take advantage of that (supposed) weakness. I have concerns about this Washington defense, specifically in their secondary. They have also failed to create much pressure on the QB even against inferior opponents and have a totally reshuffled interior DL.
I expect Michigan State to have every chance to win this game in the 4Q. If you’re going to give me 3-and-a-hook, I’ll make this a multiunit play.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/Nebraska UNDER 67.5(-110)–Sat 9/17; 11 AM CT
Saturday figures to be a windy one in Lincoln, with steady 17-20 mph gusts expected throughout this game. While that’s not the only part of this handicap, a wind this strong will certainly thwart each QB’s chances to consistently deliver in the vertical passing game.
Oklahoma’s offense figures to be strong once again after adding former UCF QB Dillon Gabriel from the transfer portal. Gabriel is right at 9 Y/A throughout his career and is familiar with OC Jeff Lebby’s system. However, I have my doubts about Oklahoma’s ground game. Eric Gray is much more of a change-of-pace, pass-catching back than he is a bellcow; this will be his first real test in this new role. Additionally, the Sooners are very mediocre along their OL, allowing 5 sacks through 2 weeks and having been a liability at times over the past few years.
Obviously, Nebraska’s defense hasn’t done much right this year(as last week’s loss to Georgia Southern showed). It’s strange because this was a top 15 defense in America a year ago, and they brought back a lot of key pieces. Time will tell how the Huskers will respond to the firing of Scott Frost, but I’m expecting a MAJOR step-up performance from the Huskers defense. We saw it from TCU and Washington State last year in the first game following the dismissal of their HC(s), and I think we’ll see it here. Nebraska must be better against the run, but I still believe the strength of their defense is at the second level with their LB’s.
With the hire of Brent Venables, Oklahoma is shifting its identity from that of an offensive-first team to a defensive-first team. We’ve seen them be able to create pressure early this season, and I think that translates against a Nebraska OL that is still not solidified. Nebraska QB Casey Thompson’s main weakness is his arm strength, meaning I think these conditions will especially impact him on any throws down the field. Nebraska has run the ball to varying degrees of success this year, but I still don’t view that unit as particularly explosive.
Like I said, I think we’ll get an admirable effort from Nebraska, and the path from them to keep this game close is via a step-up performance from their defense. The fact that each of these OC’s like to run with tempo is going to keep this a 1u play, but a lot still has to go right for a game to eclipse this high of a total. Winds this heavy will have enough of an impact to where I feel comfortable playing this one Under the total.
*CFB(1u): NC State -10(-110) vs Texas Tech–Sat 9/17; 6 PM CT
Texas Tech managed an OT victory against a flawed Houston team a week ago, but now this first year coaching staff will face their first road test against a team with little-to-no flaws. North Carolina State has the potential to finish with a top 5 defense in the country this year; they can get after the QB and are solid in their secondary, but their clear strength is at that LB core. Texas Tech OC Zack Kittley is notorious for his aggressive, pass-first offense and had a lot of success with HIS GUYS at Western Kentucky last year, but I don’t believe he has a QB fit to run this offense on campus. Week 1 starter Tyler Shough is still on the shelf, and Donovan Smith(6.1 Y/A, 3 INT’s last week) is much more fit for a balanced system. In addition, Texas Tech’s OL allowed 5 sacks a week ago and figure to be at a disadvantage in the trenches once again.
Devin Leary is the best QB in the ACC by my estimation, bringing in a 7:1 TD/INT ratio from a season ago. Leary has a slew of difference-making WR’s on the outside and plays behind an OL that has yet to allow a sack here in 2022. I had my doubts about the Wolfpack run game coming into the year, but they have over delivered as far as I am concerned. Texas Tech HC Joey Maguire inherits a defense that had some low lows a year ago, and I’m not sold that they’ve improved all that much. Houston is an incredibly unbalanced offense, and the disparity between Clayton Tune and Devin Leary is far wider than many would be willing to admit. Particularly, Tech’s back 7 figures to be extremely attackable for this NC State passing game.
I think Texas Tech is clearly overvalued after last week’s win. I am astronomically high on NC State and played on them to win the ACC this year. This line should be closer to 2 TD’s.
