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Denver at Miami -6.5 O/U 48, 1:00pm ET
Sean Peyton and the Broncos hit the road east and head to South Beach for a week 3 clash with Tua, Tyreek and the Fish. This is Denver’s first road game of the season, getting games 1 and 2 of their schedule at home. While Miami started their season with away games in L.A and New England, making Sunday their home opener. Now these were two squads with tons of hype entering the 2023 season, also two teams heading in vastly different directions. Miami has lived up to the hype, currently 2-0 and clicking on many levels. Whereas Denver is still winless and are facing plenty of problems on both sides of the ball.
This is an awful spot for Denver. Why do you ask? Well, you always have the altitude factor playing at Mile High giving the Broncos players an edge in every home game. They were unable to come away with wins in either home game, and now head to Miami to play in the heat. For those not from Florida, truly have no idea the humidity factor playing in Florida in September. Like the Broncos getting that home edge, this situation greatly favors the Dolphin roster. Playing, practicing, and living in this heat is no picnic, but their bodies are surely more acclimated than any of the northern teams.
Now let’s talk X’s and O’s. This is set up to be a long day for Russell and company. Vic Fangio’s defense was able to get to Justin Herbert 3 times in week 1 and got to Mac Jones 4 times in week 2. Yes, I understand the Patriots were without two offensive linemen, but regardless getting to the QB has been no problem for his D. Now he gets to square off with a Denver O-line who has given up 9 sacks in just two weeks. Again, I understand 7 of the 9 came from the Commanders ferocious pass rush, but don’t think for a second Miami is that far behind them. Expect to see Fangio bring pressure on Wilson all game, causing chaos and hopefully a defensive TD or at the very least, short fields for Tua. Also don’t forget this is Fangio’s old team where he was the previous head coach, so I expect him to call an aggressive game with the revenge factor partially being in play.
How will Denver stop the Dolphins offense? Simply put, they won’t. Miami has too much speed on outside for Denver to contain. The second Mike McDaniel senses them consistently dropping back into coverage, he will unleash Mostert who ran for 121 yards in New England last week. Raiders WR Jakobi Myers had a field day week 1 versus Denver, with all their focus on Davante Adams. I expect a similar game Sunday with Denver focusing on stopping Tyreek Hill. Leaving an empty canvas for Waddle to, waddle into the endzone.
Let’s take the fish in week 3, with a strong unit upgrade. We will also throw in a few Waddle receiving props as well. Let’s go Dolphins!
Dolphins -6.5 (BetMGM -110) risk 2.2u to win 2u
Waddle over ___ receiving yards risk ___ to win 0.5u
Waddle *anytime* TD +115 (DraftKings) risk 0.25u to win 0.29u
Correlated Parlay: Dolphins -6.5/over 48. risk 0.2u to win 0.53u
Good luck if tailing any of these bets, as always bet what you can afford to lose, stay disciplined and BREATHE…
