I’ve been mediocre out of the gates in CFB(13-15, -2.14u), but if history is correct(55%, +27.35u in CFB last year), we’ll be just alright.
I want to give you 4 plays out of the gate for Week 4 but will follow up this evening with some additional 1u plays. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1.5u): Clemson -7 @ Wake Forest–Sat 9/24; 11 AM CT
Fun Fact: Over the last 5 seasons, Clemson has beaten Wake Forest by an average of 34 PPG. I won’t hold my breath expecting this one to play out any differently.
I have been the first guy to admit that Clemson needs to make a change at QB away from DJ Uiagalelei, and I still believe that move will be made this season. However, this is not a matchup where I expect that to be necessary. Clemson is going to be able to establish their run game behind RB Will Shipley(career 5.7 YPC) against this porous Wake Forest run defense that has been a liability for years. Vanderbilt and Liberty had no trouble doing so; in fact, Liberty out-gained Wake Forest by almost 100 yards last week and should’ve walked out of Winston-Salem with a win. From there, I think the opportunities for Uiagalelei will open up similar to how it did last year when Clemson eviscerated Wake Forest for 48 points.
Wake Forest has an incredibly unbalanced and predictable offense given they have shown no ability to establish any sort of run game; against Liberty, their RB’s combined for just 12 yards on 14 carries. How do you think that translates against a Top 5 defense in America with one of the best front 4’s in College Football? QB Sam Hartman is a pretty experienced player at this point, but he is far less efficient than people think(58%, 8 Y/A over his career). Clemson might be content with playing a “bend don’t break” style in their secondary, but ultimately, Hartman cannot carry this offense single-handedly over a 60 minute game. He threw 14 INT’s a year ago, and I’d bet you we see multiple in this one. Clemson is likely to welcome back Bryan Breese and/or Xavier Thomas this week, making a great front 4 even more of a strength against this vulnerable Wake Forest OL.
*CFB(1.5u): TCU/SMU OVER 70.5–Sat 9/24; 11 AM CT
Both of these squads have major holes defensively that I believe haven’t been fully exploited yet. TCU has been fortunate to draw Colorado and Tarleton State, but they rank 80th by my defensive efficiency metrics coming into this matchup. I expect their Front 4 to get swallowed up by a strong SMU OL and think that, outside of their first-team All Big12 CB, they are very attackable in their Back 7. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is an incredibly experienced player that is fit to run Garrett Riley’s fast-paced system. The passing game gets a lot of love(rightfully so), but SMU has multiple RB’s that are 5+ YPC caliber.
It is uncertain whether TCU QB Chandler Morris will be healthy enough to go, but Max Duggan might be the better option regardless given his ability as a dual-threat. Duggan threw for 9 Y/A last year and is in his 4th year as a starter; either option is perfectly adequate to put up points in this matchup. The Frogs have tons of deep play potential on the outside led by WR Quentin Johnson and have allowed just 1 sack this season. SMU was shredded against the run vs Maryland last week and rank just 68th by my defensive efficiency metrics. TCU RB Kendre Miller has run for 7.2 YPC over the course of his career, meaning TCU can create explosive plays in a variety of ways.
In summary, there is lots of experience at key positions offensively(QB, OL) and 2 offensive-first coaching staffs. This should be a high-possession game that, when combined with the expected efficiency, should lead to a classic shootout.
*CFB(1.5u): Minnesota/Michigan State OVER 51–Sat 9/24; 2:30 PM CT
Minnesota bringing back OC Kirk Ciarrocca completely changes the dynamics of this offense. Under him, the Gophers were a Top 10 offense in America back in 2019, and I think this 2022 version could display an even greater deal of efficiency. QB Tanner Morgan is now a 5th year starter that had a career year in this system back in 2019(10.3 Y/A, 28 TD vs 6 INT). This year, his Y/A has climbed all the way up to 11.7. Michigan State had one of the worst pass defenses in America a year ago, and the fact they just got shredded for 391 yards by Michael Penix last week inspires no confidence that Mel Tucker has fixed those issues. However, I believe Minnesota’s RB corps is really what takes them to the next level. Mohamed Ibrahim(career 5.5 YPC) is back healthy and has already run for 464 yards this year; he is joined by a slew of other quality backs that form what could be the deepest RB room in all of CFB. I believe this offense can impose their will in the run game on virtually anybody.
Michigan State failed to establish any sort of run game against Washington last week, but I thought QB Payton Thorne responded to that disadvantage quite well. The Spartans are expected to welcome back their Top WR Jayden Reed this week, but even if he doesn’t play, I like Sparty’s chances of moving the ball in this one. By nature of playing 3 nobodies, we have yet to see Minnesota’s defense get tested this year. I liked their D last year, but they lost a lot of production at some key spots(specifically at DL and secondary). Michigan State has starting experience across the board along their OL and think they can beat Minnesota up front. While the RB’s struggled last week, both Broussard and Berger are above 5 YPC throughout their career. Thorne is an 8.5 Y/A guy that I believe is fully capable of taking advantage of a Minnesota defense that is still being priced according to what they were last season.
Ultimately, Minnesota’s massive increase in pace is enough to make this a multi-unit play.
*CFB(1u): Notre Dame +2 @ North Carolina–Sat 9/24: 2:30 PM CT
Many would lead you to believe that this is an offensive mismatch, but the far bigger mismatch falls on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame has a borderline Top 10 defensive in America that held Ohio State to just 21 points, while North Carolina ranks 112th by my defensive efficiency metrics coming into this spot.
North Carolina’s biggest weakness offensively(BY FAR) is in pass protection. It is why they went 6-7 last year even with a QB as dynamic as Sam Howell, and it has remained a problem here in 2022. Coincidentally, Notre Dame’s strength defensively is in their pass rush, making this a total and utter mismatch up front. UNC QB Drake Maye has looked the part through 3 games, but it’s also worth noting that he’s drawn an incredible amount of praise for lighting up G5 teams like App State and Georgia State. This is by far the best secondary he’s gone up against and just an overall major step up in competition. I can’t emphasize enough how poor I expect UNC’s offensive line to be in this matchup.
I’m not here to defend Notre Dame’s offense(I’ve been critical of it since July), but this is easily their most manageable matchup of the season. They’ve had to go up against Top 35 defenses in Ohio State and Cal; shoot, even Marshall has an above average defense. North Carolina allowed 61 points to App State and were lucky to escape Atlanta with only 28 points allowed against Georgia State. The Irish are solid along their OL and will match up with a Tar Heel DL that has struggled to create any sort of pass rush in 2022. Teams have also had their way establishing the run on UNC, and their young secondary has shown to be very vulnerable early in the season.
I had the same reaction to this line upon first glance that I’m betting many of you did. However, upon handicapping this game, I would go as far as to say the wrong team is favored. 1 more point: You could argue that Mack Brown is the far better coach than Marcus Freeman, and historically you’d obviously be correct. But, are we sure that 2022 Mack Brown should be thought of in the same light as 2005 Mack Brown? Either way, I like Notre Dame to win this game outright but will take any points the oddsmakers give me.
