2021 NFL Record: 8-6, +2.35u
*NFL(1u): Colts TT UNDER 20.5(-115) @ Dolphins–Noon CT
Colts HC Frank Reich is a very crafty play-caller who I’ve been able to trust in years past, but this current Colts offense has proven to be incapable so far. Through 3 games, they’ve averaged less than 19 PPG, which includes a mere 16 point output against a vulnerable Tennessee defense last week. Miami has looked rattled in their past 2 games; they were completely manhandled by the Bills in Week 2 and let last week’s game in Las Vegas slip away. Brian Flores has had success in Miami by slowing the game down and relying on his defense. QB Jacoby Brissett looked a lot better in Week 3 than he did coming in relief for Tua in Week 2, so I’d expect the Dolphins offense to be pretty efficient back at home this week. This would limit the Colts’ possessions, and with the mistake-prone Carson Wentz leading the offense, I don’t think Indy will find their answers on offense this week. Maybe the Colts find an offensive identity at some point this season, but this matchup doesn’t set up well for them to do so.
*NFL 2 Team Teaser(1u): Cardinals/Rams OVER 48.5 AND Buccaneers -1 @ Patriots(-110)–3:05 PM CT
I wouldn’t talk you out of playing the Cards/Rams OVER at the posted number, but by teasing it down 6 points, we’re getting much better value(obviously). The Rams have looked about as sharp as any offense in the league through 3 weeks, and I don’t expect the Cardinals defense to provide much resistance. The Arizona D has shown to be spotty in the past, and Sean McVay has tons of weapons at his disposal. That said, Kyler Murray is as dynamic a QB as you’ll find, and the Rams defense hasn’t been tasked with facing a dual-threat QB yet this season. Not only is Kyler Murray great with his legs, but he is an exceptional passer. I expect these teams to trade points at a high rate for 60 minutes and for this game to sail into the 52-55 range(at least). As for the Bucs portion of this teaser, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game to a clearly inferior Patriots team. Bill Belichick knows Tom Brady as well as anybody, but he’s still in the “growing pains” stage with rookie QB Mac Jones. Even if the Patriots defense brings their A effort, I don’t see the Pats offense being able to move the ball very well, especially considering the Bucs’ success at stopping the run. This could be closer than the -7 line indicates, but Brady will get the best of his former team tonight in Foxborough.
