Coming off a 6-5, -0.73u Week 4, I hold a mediocre season record of 19-20, -2.87u in CFB. I hit at a 55% clip and netted +27.35u in CFB last year, and I’m confident a breakout week is ahead. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
A FEW NOTES
- Team Totals don’t become widely available until Saturday, but I will be on quite a few this week. I will have write-ups for those out on Saturday morning when I lock them in, but to give you an idea:
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- Iowa State TT OVER has the chance to be my heaviest wager of the week. If we get that at 31 or lower, it will be 2u play. At anything above 31, it will be a 1.5u play.
- Texas Tech TT UNDER will be a 1u play anything at or above 24.
- Texas A&M TT UNDER is likely to be a play. Would love to get at 21 or higher.
- Oregon TT OVER or Oregon 1H TT OVER is under heavy consideration as well.
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- Many games in the southeast region have major question marks around them given the Hurricane. Weather could be a major factor in a lot of these games, maybe none moreso than NC State vs Clemson(projected winds of 25+ mph at the moment). Rather than guess multiple days in advance what the weather will look like, I’ll wait closer to Saturday to play any of these games.
*CFB(1u): UTSA -4 @ Middle Tennessee–Fri 9/30; 6:30 PM CT
I gave this out on Wednesday night, but I would still encourage a play on UTSA despite this moving to -4.5/5.
We’ve seen the market react greatly to Middle Tennessee State’s upset win over Miami last week; give the Blue Raiders credit for consistently exposing Miami’s poor defensive game plan(Chase Cunningham was over 25 yards/completion). However, I still think MTSU’s offense ranks in the bottom 30 of College Football. UTSA is not going to be as arrogant as Miami was last week in their secondary, meaning the likelihood of a repeat performance for Chase Cunningham is unlikely. For MTSU to move the ball efficiently, they’re going to need to establish the run. I don’t see them being able to do so given RB1 Frank Peasant holds a career 4.2 YPC and has only had success this year vs Tennessee State. UTSA’s defensive numbers are skewed given the level of competition they’ve played(Houston, @ Army, @ Texas); I think they’ll be able to win up front vs this vulnerable UTSA O-Line and stimmy the Blue Raiders from an effective night.
I love this UTSA offense, specifically their passing offense. QB Frank Harris holds a 5:1 TD/INT ratio over the last 2 seasons and is moving the offense at an efficient clip(8.5 Y/A). Unlike Miami, UTSA is very solidified at the WR position. While UTSA’s run game has declined since losing Sincere McCormick, this is an offense that’s looked good despite it. MTSU has a pretty solid front 4, but I have a hard time seeing them get home on a mobile Harris given this UTSA system is predicated on getting the ball out quick. The mismatch on the outside is stark; much like James Madison did earlier this season in a 44-7 win over MTSU, I think an experienced Roadrunners attack will be able to take advantage of this edge consistently.
*CFB(1u): Washington/UCLA OVER 64.5–Fri 9/30; 9:30 PM CT
I leaned towards the Over when this opened at 66.5, so getting 2 more points of cushion was enough for me to fire on this as an official play.
Washington HC Kalen DeBour has completely changed the dynamics around this Huskies offense in quick fashion. He had worked with QB Michael Penix back in 2019 when they were at Indiana(Penix had a career best season), and up to this point, they have moved the ball at will vs both Michigan State and Stanford. This should be another matchup where they can take advantage. UCLA has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, yet they still rank 67th in my defensive efficiency power ratings. This is a secondary that got exposed routinely in their tougher matchups last year, and even against inferior competition, teams have found a way to consistently establish the run on this Bruins defense. Washington’s OL is finally starting to live up to the massive expectations we had for them a year ago, not having allowed a sack in either of their last 2 games.
I love this UCLA offense. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a 5th year starter at this point that has shown consistent progression throughout his college career. He’s completing 75% of his passes this year and is also a MAJOR threat with his legs. Washington’s secondary has proven to be pretty attackable this season; they allowed Michigan State’s Payton Thorne to storm a major comeback a few weeks ago and yielded 11 Y/A to Stanford’s Tanner McKee last week. While the Huskies have been stout against the run for most of this season, this is by far the toughest test their Front 7 will face this year. Aside from the threat of DTR in the run game, the Bruins have a true bruiser in the form of RB Zach Charbonnet(5.6 YPC and 1137 yards in 2021, 6.8 YPC in 2022).
When you factor in that both of these teams like to run fast(UCLA in particular is running at a manically fast tempo this year), I don’t understand why this isn’t in the High 60’s. Given the experience/effectiveness of both QB’s and the acumen of both HC’s, I felt this was worth a play.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/TCU OVER 69–Sat 10/1; 11 AM CT
We cashed a best bet on the TCU Over last week; for many of the same reasons, I’m running it back this week.
Oklahoma has a Top 5 offense in CFB, plain and simple. Jeff Lebby’s veer-and-shoot system is somewhat of a cheat code. I felt like the Sooners left a lot of plays on the field last week vs a Top 10 defense in Kansas State, yet they still put up 34 points and 550 yards of offense. TCU’s front 4 will not provide the same level of resistance that the Wildcats did, and to a much greater degree, TCU’s secondary is far more attackable than Kansas State’s. Dillon Gabriel(67%, 9.3 Y/A, 11 TD vs 0 INT) is a perfect fit for this offense, and the plethora of playmakers he has on the outside will provide a pretty clear mismatch in this matchup.
For as low as I am on TCU’s defense, I really do like their offense. QB Max Duggan is a 4th year starter that has developed into a good college QB(over 9 Y/A each of the past 2 seasons). Moreover, TCU has proven that they can create explosive plays in multiple ways. RB Kendre Miller has run for over 7 YPC in his career, and the Frogs are loaded at both the WR and TE position. I liked how Oklahoma’s front 7 looked in their easier matchups, but as last week vs Kansas State showed, this is not a very good unit when stepping up in competition. Brent Venables will change that over time, but the jimmies-and-joes on this defense just aren’t there. While Adrian Martinez had quite a bit of success against the Sooners last week, I still don’t think this secondary(which I was low on coming into the season) has been tested the way they’ll be in this matchup.
With totals, pace is a critical component of the handicap. Oklahoma runs at an extremely fast pace, and Sonny Dykes will not be afraid to turn this into a track meet to keep up with this explosive OU attack. The Big12 has morphed into a better defensive league than people think, but you won’t think that after watching these two teams match up.
*CFB(1u): Memphis -19 vs Temple–Sat 10/1; 11 AM CT
Temple is truly one of the worst teams in the FBS and an absolute fade for me, especially on the road. We saw them lose by 30 at Duke in their only other road game this year, and this one could be just as ugly.
Memphis is clearly not where they were at the end of the Mike Norvell era, but there is a lot to like about this Tigers squad. QB Seth Henigan has made strides from his freshman season, bringing a 67% completion, 8.9 Y/A, and 8:1 TD/INT ratio into this matchup. I also think there is plenty of talent at both RB and WR to be able to put up a crooked number here. The one thing that has plagued Memphis at times this year is their O-Line. Thankfully, Temple’s pass rush is non-existent, and in general, their Front 7 looked overmatched in both of their Power 5 matchups. Temple had a good secondary a year ago, but as that Duke game proved, if you can’t make an impact up front, even mediocre passing offenses will pick you apart. I think Henigan is much better than “mediocre”.
Temple’s offense is clearly the worst unit on the field in this matchup. Their numbers vs Lafayette and UMASS are meaningless to me; they were shut out at Duke and put up just 264 yards vs Rutgers. In particular, Temple has shown no semblance of a run game against any team with a pulse this year. Freshman QB EJ Warner will be making his first ever road start, and aside from his performance vs Lafayette, he too has looked terrible. I don’t worry about Memphis winning up front in this caliber of matchup. The Tigers will force Temple into obvious passing downs which, as shown throughout the year, is not a recipe for success for the Owls. I know Memphis’s D didn’t loom great vs either Arkansas State or North Texas, but this is a considerably easier matchup facing what could be a bottom 5 offense in the country.
When you throw in the major revenge angle after Memphis laid an egg against Temple last year, I think the Tigers can name their score here.
*CFB(1u): Auburn +8.5 vs LSU–Sat 10/1: 6 PM CT
This line is giving LSU’s offense far too much credit. QB Jayden Daniels’ mobility has been able to hide this somewhat, but LSU’s offensive line is TERRIBLE. Even with his mobility, Daniels has still been sacked 12 times this season, including 4 times last week vs New Mexico. I haven’t given up on Auburn’s defense yet; while they didn’t make as big of an impact vs above average OL’s like Penn State and Missouri, I see this as a matchup where they can dominate LSU’s OL. Daniels has been efficient through the air this year but hasn’t been allowed the time to strike consistently in the vertical passing game. LSU’s run game had a strong 4th quarter vs Mississippi State but have otherwise looked average vs Power 5 competition. Are we just going to forget how LSU looked against a similar level of defense in Florida State earlier this year?
It looks like QB Robby Ashford will run the show for Auburn once again this week, and quite honestly, I think he gives Auburn a better chance than TJ Finley. Ashford is a much bigger threat in the QB run game and has actually looked better as a passer than people would give him credit for(7.9 Y/A). Auburn has a solid set of RB’s led by a bruiser in Tank Bigsby that will be utilized greatly in this matchup. LSU’s defense has looked better than I thought it would, and clearly they have a physical front 4. However, I do think LSU’s back 7 is attackable. Auburn will be playing more of a “ball control” or “keep away” type of game, but given what I think they’ll get from their defense, I think that will prove to be effective.
LSU has glaring holes that I believe will be exposed throughout the rest of the season. In addition, Brian Kelly is dealing with many of the same issues from a team building standpoint that many 1st year HC’s deal with. To assume LSU can roll the ball out and win on the road, at Jordan-Hare, at night by double-digits is insane to me. Auburn clearly should’ve lost to Missouri last week and were gifted that game. However, with new life, this is a major step-up spot for Auburn, and I think they will respond accordingly.
