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*CFB(1u): Tennessee -3 @ LSU–Saturday 11 AM CT
I stood on an island last week when I faded LSU on the road against Auburn, and a lot of my reasoning was confirmed. LSU’s offensive line is not just subpar; that unit is a straight up liability. Their RB room is simply not very talented, and we saw their secondary get decimated in what should’ve been a pretty easy matchup. Now, you have to face one of the best offenses in the country that has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker is phenomenal in every sense of the word; in addition to throwing for over 10 Y/A on the young season and being a threat with his legs, Hooker has a beatiful 34:3 TD/INT ratio during his time as a Vol. Tennessee can create explosive plays in a multitude of ways, and I think over time, they’ll simply outmatch this LSU defense.
LSU QB Jayden Daniels has been able to mask a lot of the Tigers’ issues with his ability as a runner, but he showed major flaws last week as a passer. In fact, Daniels has thrown for less than 6 Y/A in his 3 games vs Power 5 competition this season. He does not enter this game at 100% health after having to leave last week’s game which could hurt his abilities as a runner. I don’t always love Tennessee’s manically fast tempo because I think it extends games unnecessarily, but I actually think that works in their favor. Ultimately, I like the Vols to pull away and win this game by at least 7.
*CFB(1u): Washington State +12.5 @ USC–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
All offseason, the only thing this USC team heard was that Utah was their only real threat in the Pac12 race. Not only is that not true(the Trojans might not even be the best team in their own city), but that has the potential to make this an extreme “look ahead” spot. USC is an overrated commodity that will eventually expose themselves as their season plays out, and this could very well be their first crack.
Washington State is no slouch, plain and simple. The Cougars already have an outright road win at Wisconsin this year and played a clearly superior Oregon team down to the wire. Coming off a dominant win against Cal, it is clear that Washington State’s defense is far superior to USC’s. Specifically, the Cougars have been quite stout in their Front 7. USC has dominated inferior defenses like Stanford and Arizona State, but in their one true test on the road against Oregon State(who’s still not great defensively), that offense sputtered. RB Travis Dye is going to get his, but Caleb Williams has proven to be quite inconsistent early in his college career.
What ultimately gets me on this play is my utter disgust of USC’s defense. They’ve forced turnovers at an elite rate this year, but that’s about all you can really compliment them on. While they can take advantage of poor OL units, their back 7 is extremely vulnerable. I worry less about USC’s pass rush having an impact on this game given Washington State sticks to Air Raid tendencies and likes to get the ball out quick. Wazzu QB Cameron Ward has translated well to the P5 level after dominating the FCS ranks, and this is a matchup I expect him to take advantage of USC’s lack of discipline defensively.
*CFB(1u): BYU/Notre Dame UNDER 51–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
*CFB(1u): BYU +3.5 vs Notre Dame–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
This is obviously a neutral-site game being played in Las Vegas. BYU played in LV last year and is one of the oldest teams in the country, while Notre Dame has to make the cross-country trip led by their unproven 1st year HC. While the matchup sets up well for BYU as well, this is an element to the handicap I think is worth putting stock into.
BYU QB Jaren Hall is clearly the superior QB in this matchup(8.5 Y/A over the last 2 seasons). Additionally, Hall has far more playmakers to work with on the outside than Drew Pyne. While we did see Notre Dame get their offense going in Chapel Hill a few weeks ago(I was on the Irish that game), I think that has far more to say about the Tar Heels’ defensive issues and ND’s massive advantage in the trenches in that particular matchup. This is still only Drew Pyne’s 3rd career start; outside of TE Michael Mayer, I think the weapons he has at his disposal are incredibly mediocre.
I respect Notre Dame’s acumen in the trenches on both sides of the ball and think it will keep this a neck-and-neck game. Ultimately, I think each team will struggle to establish much of a run game, but BYU is more seasoned as far as creating explosive plays through the air. If you’re going to give me 3.5 points with the Cougars in this spot, I’ll take it all day. Still, I think this game is played in the low-20’s.
*CFB(1u): Clemson/Boston College UNDER 48.5–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
On paper, this is not a good scheduling spot for Clemson. They just won a huge game against NC State but also have a tough road matchup in Tallahassee against the Noles next weekend. Not only that, but Boston College has hung neck-and-neck with Clemson each of the past 2 seasons, with the Golden Eagles holding Clemson to just 19 points in Death Valley last year. Ultimately, I expect this to be a very low-possession game. Boston College is well below average in the pace department despite playing from behind most of the season, and Clemson will be trying to get out of Chestnut Hill in quick order.
I know Boston College broke out of their funk with a win against Louisville last week, but they do not match up well with Clemson’s defense. Specifically, Boston College’s offensive line has been a train wreck this season; if you’re struggling to beat Rutgers and Virginia Tech up front, I have no confidence that they’ll step up against a borderline elite Clemson front 4. As a result of their issues up front, they’ve regressed in virtually every offensive department this year.
Call me crazy, but I think Boston College can get stops here. While they are unlikely to get much pressure on DJ Uiagalelei, I like BC at the second and third levels defensively. Clemson RB Will Shipley has run for less than 5 YPC against Power 5 competition, and even with Uiagaleilei’s improvements, he is still far from a world beater with his arm.
I envision a quick, 27-10 type of game that stays under the total.
