Week 6 NFL Slate with JKSportsBets

Last week was actually a pretty good week, despite our results. I had a lot of plays in mind and the ones I didn’t release but still wagered on hit, including some totals that I was pretty confident in. The plays I released, though, got a little rough. The Bears and the Browns both let us down, but we live, we learn, and we grow! This week, the slate is pretty tough. I’ve found two decent spots, though.

Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns – Sunday, 10/13, 10 AM Pacific

We’re going back to the Browns on this one. Seattle comes in at 4-1, trailing the Niners by half a game for the NFC West. (Side note: boy did we miss on the Niners last week). Seattle is actually a very good road team, having won ATS in five of their last six away from Seattle. Four of the last five have gone over. I think this is actually a sneaky shootout potential game. Look for Baker to get right here. Seattle has allowed the fifth most passing yards in the league and only three picks. The Browns have the fourth worst rushing defense, allowing an average of 150.8 rushing yards per game. Given that Seattle likes to run, and the Browns suck at stopping the run, I believe the Seahawks ride Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny to an early lead, causing Baker to have to throw repeatedly. Pete Carroll is not one to take his foot off the gas, so take Seattle and take the over.

SEA Seahawks -2.5, (-105), 2u

CLE Browns/SEA Seahawks OVER 46.5, (-110), 1u

SEA Seahawks TT OVER 24, (-110), 1u

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos – Sunday, 10/13, 1:25 PM Pacific

The Titans travel to Mile High to take on the Broncos in a defensive battle. Both defenses are good, tough, bruising D’s and both offenses are pretty horrid. The O/U at 40.5 makes sense here. It’s scary to take an under on a total that low, but that’s what I thought last week with the Bills/Titans O/U. I think the under hits for a couple reasons. First, both teams consistently go under. The Titans have gone under in four in a row, four of the first five games, with the total going no more than 36 in that span. The Broncos have indeed gone over in two of their last three, but the Packers game went over by 1.5, so it was pretty close. Additionally, before that the Broncos had ELEVEN regular season games in a row go under. Yep. From October 28, 2018 until September 22, 2019, all the Broncos games went under. The Broncos as an organization just tend to go under. The under is 20-9-1 in the last 30 Broncos’ regular season games. Take the under.

DEN Broncos/TEN Titans under 40.5, (-110), 2u

Fade of the week:

Dallas, -8 AND Minnesota, -3 – This is a two-for. The Cowboys are overrated, they’re playing on the road, and against a Jets team that just got back their starting QB. Not saying the ‘Boys lose but wouldn’t be surprised to see them fail to cover. Meanwhile, the Eagles have one of the most elite run defenses and the Vikings have trouble winning games they’re supposed to throw in.

Parlay of the week:

CAR/TB OVER 47.5, SEA ML, HOU ML, WAS ML, LAR ML, DEN ML, GB ML (+5959)

This Sunday I’ll be at the TV all day so follow on twitter (@jksportsbets) as in-game plays can, and will be, released!