Coming off a 4-3-1, +1.25u Week 6, all eyes are ahead to Week 7!
I currently have 3 plays locked in for this Week 7 slate but will follow up with more plays in another post tomorrow. I’ll more than likely add more on Friday night/Saturday morning. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Baylor -3.5 @ West Virginia–Thursday 6 PM CT
I released this on Tuesday night and made a complementary video on YouTube for my analysis.
*CFB(1u): Memphis/East Carolina OVER 58–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
With the pace each of these teams run at, the defensive issues on each side, as well as the history of these QB’s, I have a hard time seeing this game stay Under the total.
Memphis had last week’s game against Houston all but wrapped up before yielding a late comeback to the Cougars. Even so, they put up 33 points in that spot and worked around a brutal matchup facing arguably the best pass rushing unit in the American Athletic. QB Sean Henigan is over 8 Y/A throughout his young career; while the consistency hasn’t been where you’d want it to be this year, he is more than capable of taking advantage of this ECU defense. The Pirates might’ve only allowed 24 points last week to Tulane, but Michael Pratt really picked on their secondary to the tune of 9.6 Y/A. Old Dominion QB Hayden Wolff put up a similar figure vs ECU earlier this season, and even Campbell’s QB threw for 7.9 Y/A. Memphis’s OL will have a much easier time protecting Henigan in this matchup which should allow the talented sophomore to shine.
East Carolina’s offense thrives off of balance. QB Holton Ahlers has already thrown for 16 TD’s on the young season, but it really starts with the ECU run game. Keaton Mitchell has had another phenomenal season, running for 7.6 YPC here in ‘22 after running for 6.5 YPC last season. Mitchell faced a tough matchup against Tulane last weekend(look at what the Green Wave did to Kansas State’s rushing attack), but this is the exact type of matchup where Mitchell makes his money. Memphis’s front 4 has been particularly concerning here in 2022; they’ve allowed offenses like Arkansas State and North Texas to have their way and get into the 30’s. Ahlers is a 5th year player that will thrive in this matchup once the run game is established.
*CFB(1u): Utah -3.5 vs USC–Saturday 7 PM CT
USC remains undefeated, but I still have some pretty big concerns about this team, mainly on the defensive side of the ball. Sentiment is low on Utah after they lost in the Rose Bowl last week, but that has not swayed how I view this matchup. Utah QB Cam Rising is a great fit for their system, holding a 4:1 TD/INT ratio during his time as a Ute. Still, Utah’s offense is predicated on establishing the ground game with Tavion Thomas. While the Utah rushing attack has taken a step back this year, I was encouraged to see Thomas stay above 5 YPC against UCLA last week. USC’s clear strength defensively is their pass rush, but I don’t think that will be showcased as well in this matchup as it would be facing an offense that features more slow developing plays. USC has routinely allowed inferior competition to establish the run, and I have little faith their secondary will consistently come out on top against an experienced Utah WR/TE core that has a lot of continuity within this offense.
There aren’t very many players in CFB with more upside than Caleb Williams. With that said, the sophomore is far from consistent. He played losing football in his only other true road test this season(44%, 5 Y/A at Oregon State) and didn’t play particularly well against a good Washington State defense last week(52%, 6.5 Y/A). This is clearly the toughest matchup of the season for him, and I think we see Williams make quite a few mistakes. USC RB Travis Dye is the best player week-in and week-out Lincoln Riley has right now, but ultimately, this game will fall on Williams’ arm. I know how much talent USC has out wide(although Jordan Addison is not 100% entering this matchup), but Utah’s strength of their defense is their secondary. This will also be the biggest test to date for USC’s OL.
Playing on the road in Salt Lake City is a challenge I believe a team of “ringers” like USC is not suited well for. This is truly a clash of styles matchup between a team built through the Transfer Portal and an experienced team that’s been developed in the same program for years. I’m not concerned as to how Utah’s 2 losses figure into this matchup; quite frankly, I think this is a game the Utes pull away in and win by 2 scores.
