In addition to these 6 free plays, I have 6 premium plays for this Week 7 card that I sent to my members yesterday. Overall, I’m 45-31-1, +21.86u in CFB this season; my premium plays are hitting at a 66% rate and have netted my members +25.21u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): Oregon, Florida, Western Kentucky, Oklahoma(+103)–Fri. 9:30 PM CT
Oregon has had nearly 2 weeks to think about their road loss at Stanford. The Ducks will unfortunately be without their lead RB CJ Verdell, but luckily, Travis Dye has proven himself throughout his time in Eugene and should be able to slide into that role nicely. Cal is 1-4 and scored just 6 points against Washington State their last time out. I’m not crazy about laying big numbers with Oregon, but they’re in no real danger of losing this game tonight. Florida will travel to Baton Rouge as 11 point favorites over LSU. The Tigers are toast; they’ve lost each of their starting CB’s and showed little life in a blowout against Kentucky last week. This could very well be Ed Orgeron’s last game as LSU’s head coach, and the fans know this. Tiger Stadium won’t provide the same type of headache it usually does to opposing teams, so I think Florida will take care of business in Death Valley. Western Kentucky might be 1-4, but that doesn’t tell the full story of their season. The Hilltoppers have scored over 40 PPG this season but have simply run into a very tough schedule, losing competitive games to Army, Michigan State, Indiana, and UTSA. Old Dominion is nowhere near the level of any of those aforementioned teams, so I expect the Hilltoppers to start winning some games in convincing fashion given their offensive explosiveness. Oklahoma hosts TCU in primetime on Saturday night and expects to run out freshman Caleb Williams as their starting QB. I know there’s been a lot of drama surrounding the Rattler-Williams battle this week, but I don’t think that drama will have an impact on the Sooners’ play tomorrow given they will have the right QB on the field. While Texas exposed the OU secondary last season, TCU QB Max Duggan doesn’t possess the ability to beat teams deep consistently enough to where I’m worried about OU being in danger tomorrow night.
*CFB(1u): Duke/Virginia OVER 69.5(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
I narrowly lost my play on the Duke/Georgia Tech Over last week, but I’m going right back to it this week. I think the Blue Devils’ offense is a lot better than given credit for; RB Mateo Durant is averaging 131 yards/game on the ground this season, and Gunnar Holmberg is completing an uber-efficient 72.5% of his passes. Given that Duke runs their offense at the 8th highest pace in the country and is squaring off against what I would consider a weak Virginia defense, I like Duke’s chances of success offensively. All that being said, Duke is also very weak defensively, and Virginia’s offense has shown lots of life under QB Brennan Armstrong this season. Armstrong is completing 65% of his passes and averaging over 400 yards/game through the air, so the Cavs should have ample opportunity at reaching the end zone back at home. It shouldn’t take anything out of the ordinary for this game to get into the 70’s, so I’ll play the Over.
*CFB(1u): Georgia -21.5(-110) vs Kentucky–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
It’s getting close to the point where Georgia is becoming an “auto-bet” team. The Bulldogs have won each of their 4 conference games by no less than 24 points and are undoubtedly the best team in the country at this point. The offense has stayed afloat even without QB JT Daniels in the mix, but the defense has been insanely dominant, allowing less than 6 PPG this season. Kentucky has found ways to win, but they are in no way a prototypical 6-0 football team. The Wildcats rely heavily on RB Chris Rodriguez, but I have low hopes about Kentucky’s run game facing the best defense in the country. That means the game will fall on the shoulders of QB Will Levis; Levis had a fast start to the season but has thrown for less than 200 yards/game this season and has had some really ugly performances. JT Daniels could be back for this game, but does it really matter? Georgia’s defense is so suffocating that their offense is going to find themselves in favorable positions all game long. I have no issue laying this big of a number with the #1 team in the country.
*CFB(1u): Texas Tech 1H -9.5(-110) @ Kansas–Sat. 3 PM CT
Texas Tech has had an up-and-down season, picking up nice wins against Houston and West Virginia but also getting blown out by Texas and TCU. The Red Raiders are still without starting QB Tyler Shough, but backup Henry Colombi has proven to be serviceable(64.6% completion, 235 YPG). The Red Raiders like to run the ball with power back Sarodorick Thompson(5.0 career YPC) and open up the deep passing game from there. Considering Kansas is allowing over 50 PPG this season against FBS competition, Tech should be able to get whatever they want offensively. Kansas isn’t horrible offensively, but they are still aren’t very good. Whatever success they’ve had has come when QB Jason Bean uses his legs, but Tech utilizes a pair of really good LB’s that should be able to take that out of the Jayhawks’ arsenal and make Bean(56% completion) beat them through the air. I think Tech comes out and lays the hammer down in the 1st Half.
*CFB(1u): Mississippi State 1H TT UNDER 9.5(-120) vs Alabama–Sat. 6:00 PM CT
Alabama’s defense seemed to match up perfectly with a Texas A&M offense that struggled mightily under QB Zach Calzada. As we all know, the Tide defense was unexpectedly burned for 41 points in a loss at Aggieland. I was high on this Alabama defense before, so I’m not going to panic too much after just 1 game. Mississippi State runs a classic air raid offense that should be much easier for Pete Golding and that defense to prepare for. While MSST QB Will Rogers has good-looking stats, the Bulldogs are averaging just 27.8 PPG this season, and that number has been boosted by some 4th quarter heroics. The flaw of the Air Raid is that it’s very hard to drive the field by throwing short 6-8 yard passes nearly every play. If Alabama can hold Ole Miss scoreless through a half of play, I think they’re plenty capable of showing out strongly against an overrated Mississippi State offense.
*CFB(1u): UCLA/Washington UNDER 55(-110)–Sat. 7:30 PM CT
Washington has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country up to this point. The Huskies were expected to contend with Oregon in the Pac12 North, but those dreams look dire after a 2-3 start. However, coming off a BYE week, I expect Jimmy Lake to have his team ready to roll for this crucial bout with UCLA. UCLA’s offense relies heavily on the run, but the Washington defense is well-coached and should be able to limit the Bruins’ 1-2 punch from running wild. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been inconsistent through the air this season, and I don’t trust him in passing downs in a tough road environment. Washington QB Dylan Morris has been equally unreliable to start this season, but I think the Huskies’ coaching staff will aid him by running some clock and putting more responsibilities on the RB’s. UCLA’s defense has only been burned by dynamic offenses that have the ability to create chunk plays, though, and I don’t think Washington possesses either of those abilities. Considering the dynamics of this game, 55 seems like too high of a total. I’ll play Under.
