In addition to these 5 free plays, I also have 7 CFB plays posted for my premium members. I’m 51-39-1(57%), +17.96u in CFB this season. My premium plays have hit at a 64% clip and netted my members +27.07u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Kansas State PK(-110) @ Texas Tech–Sat. 11 AM CT
Kansas State might be off to an 0-3 start in conference play, but they’ve played arguably the 3 best teams in the Big12(OU, ISU, OKST). I still like how the Wildcats are set up on both sides of the ball. QB Skylar Thompson is a 4-year starter who excels in his role as a “game manager”, and that’s all he really needs to do considering he shares the backfield with an elite RB in Deuce Vaughn. This Texas Tech defense has proven the can be vulnerable to dynamic offenses; they gave up 70 points to Texas as well as 52 to TCU. The combination of experience and talent in that K-State backfield should lead to a good day from their offense. Texas Tech is still without Tyler Shough at QB, meaning it will once again be backup Henry Colombi behind center for the Red Raiders. Colombi is serviceable, and he is helped out by the fact they have started to commit to the running game, but I don’t like how Tech matches up with Kansas State’s defense. The Wildcats have one of the best CB units in the conference, meaning that it won’t be easy for Colombi to strike in the vertical passing game. I can’t trust Colombi and this Tech offense to sustain drives and move the chains consistently. Kansas State should start to add some wins with some easier conference games on deck, and that starts on Saturday.
*CFB(1u): Oregon/UCLA 1H UNDER 28(+100)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The Oddsbreakers Podcast”, which was released on Thursday morning. Hear us break this down from 16:53 to 22:10 using the podcast link below.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oddsbreakers/id1252520163?i=1000539266714
*CFB(1u): Oregon +1 @ UCLA–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I didn’t give this out on the podcast, but since we recorded, I’ve decided to go ahead and back Oregon in this matchup. Sorry Kiev, but we’re going head-to-head on this one.
*CFB(1u): Maryland/Minnesota UNDER 55–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Minnesota is about as vanilla of an offense as you’re going to find in College Football. QB Tanner Morgan is attempting less than 20 passes/game because the Gophers are so thin at WR, and the Gophers are now down to their 3rd string RB with Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts out for the season. To add insult to injury, Minnesota runs just 65 plays/game(110th in CFB). Maryland was burned for 66 points in their last game against Ohio State, but against weaker offenses such as West Virginia and Illinois, the Terps have actually proven to be a pretty tough out. Even though they gave up 51 points to Iowa, much of that was due to their offense turning the ball over a whopping 7 times. This won’t be an easy matchup for Taulia Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense by any means; Minnesota is allowing just over 15 PPG since their opening week loss to Ohio State. You would think Tagovailoa should come out with a good performance after a BYE week and a few rough games under his belt, but I simply can’t trust that given his past turnovers issues. Minnesota has a solid front 4 to go along with a good secondary. Minnesota is the home team and should be able to dictate the pace of this game, making this total of 55 clearly too high.
*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Ole Miss -2.5 vs LSU AND Notre Dame -1 vs LSU(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Ole Miss enters this game coming off an emotional and physically demanding win at Tennessee last week. QB Matt Corral is not 100%, but I fully expect to see him behind center. This could be considered a let-down spot if we were to completely ignore who the opponent is, but the reality is that, despite LSU’s well-documented issues this season, they are still a brand-name program that is going to get each team’s best effort. I’d worry more about how this Ole Miss offense will stack up if they weren’t so efficient running the football, but because the Rebels deploy a 3-headed attack at RB, Corral won’t be forced to make every play to keep the offense moving. LSU is without their top 2 CB’s and have shown they can be beaten up front; while they did pull off the upset against Florida last week, they still gave up 42 points. LSU QB Max Johnson is without his top WR(Boutte), and while the Tigers have seemed to figure out the running game after a historically bad start to the season, I’m willing to bet they come back down to earth a little bit here. LSU is still a “play against” team in my mind given both their injury and HC situation, so I feel comfortable teasing Ole Miss down to -2.5.
Much like LSU, this USC team is in complete shambles right now. In their 3 losses to Stanford, Oregon State, and Utah, the Trojans have lost by an average of 16 points/game. Even though they are coming off a BYE week, this Trojans team has shown a lack of pride this season and will fold at the first sign of adversity. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has scratched and clawed all year. Brian Kelly has done a fantastic coaching job to get a limited Fighting Irish team as far as he has, and I’m willing to bet we see the offense humming coming off a BYE week. This is expected to be a cold weather game, which obviously favors the Irish over the team from SoCal that is already soft to begin with. It’s very hard for me to envision Notre Dame not pulling this one out.
