I’ve locked in 4 plays for this Week 8 slate, including a play in tonight’s UVA/GT game. I’ll be back shortly with more plays; if you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Virginia/Georgia Tech 1H UNDER 23.5–Thursday 6:30 PM CT
Virginia’s passing game was a major strength for the Cavs last year, but even with a lot of experience at QB and WR, the new system Tony Elliott brought in has clearly not resonated well with these players. QB Brennan Armstrong is down to just 55% completion and 6.5 Y/A this year, and the Cavs running game has remained lifeless(they ran for just 6 yards in their last game against Louisville). This doesn’t appear to be a matchup where they get those woes fixed; Georgia Tech is coming off of 2 straight wins where they defense almost single-handedly carried the way. Specifically, the Yellow Jackets pass defense has been quite impressive, as they held Duke QB Riley Leonard(far more productive than Armstrong) to just 3.2 Y/A the last time we saw Georgia Tech. When you throw in Virginia’s major issues along their OL, I see no reason that tonight is the night we should expect different results.
Since Geoff Collins was fired, we’ve seen the Yellow Jackets shift their offensive identity a bit. QB Jeff Sims is a much bigger part of the run game than he was earlier in the season, and RB Hassan Hall has continued to receive a heavy workload. While I like this approach, it hasn’t been conducive to lighting up the scoreboard(24.5 PPG last 2 games). In addition, Virginia’s strength defensively is clearly going up against the run, and I think they’ll hold up fine in this matchup. Sims has shown me nowhere near enough this year(6 Y/A) to where I could trust him to consistently strike in the vertical passing game, and Georgia Tech’s OL has plenty of issues of their own.
I’ll play the 1H UNDER here because I don’t feel the full game total at 47 allows for much wiggle room for any late-game shenanigans. Virginia is a team that’s been pass-heavy in the past, so if GT were to take control of this game, we could see this game go haywire down the stretch. With both of these teams playing true to form early, however, I feel very comfortable fading each of these offenses.
*CFB(1u): Ole Miss +2.5 @ LSU–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
On the surface, I know I’m not breaking the space-time continuum by backing a Top 10 team as an underdog against an unranked opponent. Even so, I believe the narrative around this game is all wrong. LSU is nowhere near the team that people want them to be, and no amount of wishful thinking is going to change that. Additionally, Ole Miss has been knocked for playing a very favorable schedule through 7 games. With all that said, I believe the oddsmakers were right to open up Ole Miss as the short road favorite, and I’ll absolutely play on the Rebels as a ‘dog.
I think Ole Miss’ blueprint offensively is extremely repeatable game-over-game. Contrary to popular belief, this is a run-first team that is elite in that facet. Both RB’s are over 6 YPC, and QB Jaxson Dart has been a nice surprise in the run game as well(350 yards, 7 YPC). Speaking of Dart, a lot will get made about this being the young QB’s first true road test. That’s fair, but when it comes down to football, this is not the hardest matchup he could’ve ever drawn. LSU is still down 2 key starters in their secondary, and I have not seen what I’ve needed to from some of the reserves that have been forced in(go watch the Auburn game). I think LSU’s front 7 is solid, but this will easily be their toughest matchup of the season going up against a borderline elite Ole Miss OL that has allowed just 2 sacks all season.
LSU’s offense broke out against Florida last week, but I’m still not sold. As a general rule, you have to account for a few games where a team plays above their capabilities, and vice versa. The Tigers have struggled mightily along their OL against every formidable opponent until last week; perhaps that has more to say Florida’s defensive line than the LSU OL all of the sudden becoming a really good unit. In any case, this LSU offense has clear limitations. Their primary RB is a walk-on that struggles to consistently create chunk plays on the ground, and when LSU has stepped up in competition, QB Jayden Daniels has struggled in the vertical passing game. LSU’s WR’s have all the talent in the world, but they aren’t exactly the most consistent unit in the country. To be honest, it really all starts up front. When Daniels was protected last week, we saw what this offense could do. However, if you haven’t picked up on it, I think that performance was a fluke. I think Ole Miss’ defense is plenty capable of winning up front and stopping the run, which, in my opinion, will be enough for the Rebels to pull away with a statement win on the road.
*CFB(1u): Boston College +20.5 @ Wake Forest–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Sentiment is incredibly high on Wake Forest, and if you’re judging Boston College based only on what we’ve seen this year, you could make a case this line is right. Clearly, however, I think Boston College can put up a good fight in this game. Wake Forest played Clemson down to the wire to a 2OT loss, beat Florida State in Tallahassee, and beat the breaks off of Army; that’s great. But let’s not forget that this team also got outplayed by Liberty at home and were lucky to escape with a 1 point win.
Much of Boston College’s struggles offensively can be attributed to a young OL that came out of the gates real slow. I did, however, see progress from that unit in BC’s upset win over Louisville a few weeks ago. Of course this unit wasn’t going to step up well against an elite Clemson DL the next week, but they’re not being asked to do that here. Wake Forest’s defense has struggled to consistently get pressure on the QB, has been leaky against the run for years now, and features a young secondary that I still believe is vulnerable. Boston College still has lots of talent offensively; WR Zay Flowers is a potential 1st round pick, RB Phil Garwo has a 1,000 yard season under his belt, and while Phil Jurkovec has not lived up to the hype at BC, he’s proven plenty capable to run this offense. In what’s not an overly hard matchup for Boston College’s OL, I think this offense is able to move the ball pretty effectively.
Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has enjoyed a nice start to this season, and clearly Wake Forest’s passing game is pretty good. However, the Demon Deacons also have OL issues and have struggled to establish a consistent run game. Let’s not forget that, against Liberty, Wake ran for just 21 yards. Boston College’s defense has fallen victim at times to a gross lack of complementary football, but when you isolate this unit, I like what the Golden Eagles have defensively. Getting pressure on the QB is certainly not their calling card, but I believe their Back 7 is quite good.
I see this a 34-21 type of game here with the potential to be much tighter.
*CFB(1u): Pittsburgh +2.5 @ Louisville–Saturday 7 PM CT
The wrong team is favored here, even when you factor in home field advantage for Louisville.
Louisville HC Scott Satterfield is walking on egg shells in terms to his job security, and rightfully so. The Cardinals came out flat IN THE SEASON OPENER against Syracuse and were also upset at Boston College. In the absence of QB Malik Cunningham, they were able to prey on a deadbeat Virginia team, but I have little confidence we see an inspired effort even off the BYE Week. Cunningham is expected back for this game, and given his experience and dual-threat capabilities, that’s a huge addition. However, RB1 Tiyon Evans is still a major question mark for this game; the Cardinals have seen a huge dropoff in the run game in his absence. Cunningham had a plethora of WR’s to work with in past seasons, but that has not remained true here in 2022. As a result, Cunningham has regressed as a thrower(7.2 Y/A this year compared to 8.7 Y/A over the past 2 seasons). While Louisville’s OL hasn’t been a weakness, this will be a major test for that unit facing a Pitt Front 4 that is among the best in the country at creating pressure on the QB.
For as much as I talked down on Louisville’s offense, I might have greater concerns about their defense. Teams have been able to establish the run on Louisville’s defense all year, but in past weeks, this secondary has shown major cracks. They allowed 14.5 Y/A to Phil Jurkovec and 9.2 Y/A to Brennan Armstrong over their past 2 games. I’m not the biggest Kedon Slovis guy ever, but he is clearly capable of doing the same thing in what is a pretty favorable matchup. Pitt’s run game has surprised me in a good way this year and, behind a veteran-laden OL that has improved throughout the season, I think they’ll be quite multiple in this game.
