I locked in 4 plays for this Week 8 slate earlier today and have since added 2 more. I am likely not finished, so if you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Indiana/Rutgers UNDER 48–Saturday 11 AM CT
Rutgers HC Greg Schiano is not afraid to make games ugly, and the makeup of his team sets up perfectly to be able to do so. While Rutgers might have a bottom 10 offense in all of the country, their defense is quite impressive at all 3 levels. Indiana’s offense has somehow been worse than Rutgers’, racking up just 4 yards/play this season; for reference, that’s less than teams like Iowa, Colorado, and Temple. QB Connor Bazelak has nowhere near the amount of weapons he did at Missouri, and it shows in his regression this season(55%, 5.6 Y/A). The Hoosiers have a very mediocre run game and are not good along their OL, something that bodes horribly facing a physical and effective Rutgers front 4.
I’m a bit higher on this Indiana defense than most and think they’ve fallen victim to a tough early season schedule, already having had to face off against Cincinnati, Michigan and Maryland. To say this is a step down in competition would be the understatement of the century. We aren’t exactly sure who will be leading this Rutgers offense coming out of the BYE Week, and I don’t particularly think it matters given what we’ve seen from each of the 3 options. Expect little threat in the vertical passing game and a commitment to the ground game from Schiano. Rutgers’ OL is still a work in progress and, as such, the results will continue to be underwhelming playing in this conference.
Whatever Indiana gains by running a lot of plays, they give right back with their inability to create explosive plays. I expect Rutgers’ defense to set the tone, for Greg Schiano to slow this game down considerably, and for this game to stay Under the total.
*CFB(1u): Oregon State -23.5 vs Colorado–Saturday 7 PM CT
Colorado finally got off the schneid with an upset win over Cal last week. The Buffs are back, right!? Wrong. Colorado is a terrible, terrible football team that has little to do hang their hat on. Prior to last week, they had lost their previous 5 games by an average of 30 PPG. We constantly see teams “get up” for their new interim HC only to regress back to who they actually are the following week.
Playing in Corvallis, Oregon at night against this Beavers squad is no easy test. The Beavers are a physical team that is notorious for their ground game, and both QB’s(Chance Nolan and Ben Gulbranson) have proven plenty capable to strike in the play-action game after the run is established. The Buffs defense was bailed out by Cal inexplicably electing to throw the ball 52 times last week, but run-first teams(Air Force and Minnesota specifically) have crushed the Buffs defense this year.
Colorado’s RB1 was carted off the field with an injury last week and is unlikely to return just a week later. Their new starting QB, Owen McCown, is also not 100% entering this matchup. McCown is still only throwing for 6 Y/A, but if he is unable to go, that leaves the offense in the hands of JT Shrout(sub-50% completion throughout his career). Oregon State’s defense allowed just 10 points to Washington State last week and are certainly physical enough at the point of the attack to mop the floor with this Colorado OL. Their back 7 isn’t flawless, but they’ve stepped up quite well against inferior competition this year(and even against a lethal offense like USC).
Oregon State can really name their number here. If anything, Colorado’s fluky win last week is getting us a more favorable number. I like the Beavers to win this by 4+ TD’s.
