In addition to these 6 free plays, I’ve got 6 CFB plays posted for my premium members. A win on ECU -10 last night pushed my 2021 CFB record to 61-42-1(59%), +26.36u. My premium plays are currently hitting at a 67% clip(46-22-1) and have netted my members +36.6u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Michigan State +4(-110) vs Michigan–Sat. 11 AM CT
This line implies that Michigan is nearly a full touchdown better than Michigan State on a neutral field, and I just blatantly disagree with that. Michigan State’s offense features not only a Heisman-caliber RB in Kenneth Walker III, but also an explosive passing game; they have 2 WR’s who have eclipsed the 500 yard mark already, and each has caught 5 or more TD’s. Michigan’s defense presents a tough matchup to the Spartans, including an NFL caliber threat off the edge and a veteran-laden secondary. However, I trust QB Payton Thorne to do just enough through the air to make Michigan respect the pass, which should open up some running room for Walker. I’m really not a fan of Michigan’s offense because they have shown little trust in QB Cade McNamara’s abilities to win the game through the air. The Michigan State run defense has been solid all season, so I doubt the Wolverines are going to be able to feature a one-dimensional running attack like they have against weaker competition for much of this season. However, because Michigan has had trouble replacing the absence of WR Ronnie Bell, I’m not no sure they would even have success in the downfield passing game and be able to exploit Michigan State’s supposed weakness in the secondary. I’m willing to bet this ends in a field goal game in either direction, so I’ll take the 4 points with the home team who has a good chance of winning this outright.
*CFB(1u): Washington State/Arizona State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2 PM CT
Arizona State HC Herm Edwards operates his Sun Devils team like an NFL organization; that is shown in how he has crafted his coaching staff but more importantly the style in which the Sun Devils play. Arizona State runs just 64.3 plays/game(117th in CFB) and is in no rush to go up-tempo. The Sun Devils can create explosive plays through play action after they’ve established the run, but they won’t have an easy time doing so against what is a sneakily good Washington State defense. The Cougars yielded just 21 points to BYU last week and are led by a LB group that should be able to hold the Sun Devils’ run game in check. That being said, I’m a big fan of what Arizona State does defensively; they’re led by former NFL LB and Super Bowl champion Antonio Pierce, who has this group allowing less than 20 PPG this season. Washington State is now in Week 2 without HC Nick Rolovich, who brought over his vaunted offensive system from Hawaii. The Cougars put up just 19 points against BYU last week, and I expect them to have a tough time matching that number tomorrow. 53 is a tick too high for my liking, so in a game where possessions should be limited on both sides, I’ll take a crack at the Under.
*CFB(1u): Louisiana Monroe +27.5(-115) @ App State–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
What am I missing here? While Louisiana Monroe had low expectations entering the season, they now sit at 4-3 after back-to-back outright wins against Liberty and South Alabama. Sure, each of those games was played at home, but you’re going to have a tough time convincing me that this line has appropriately adjusted for the Warhawks’ recent success. Ever since ULM switched to Chandler Rogers as its primary QB, things have turned around in a major way. Appalachian State is a good team, but given their style of play, they shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody. QB Chase Brice has a history of turnover issues, and the Mountaineers use much more of a ground-first attack rather than throwing the ball all over the yard. I think the market has failed to adjust to the Warhawks’ turnaround, so let’s make ‘em pay for it.
*CFB(1u): North Carolina/Notre Dame UNDER 62.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
North Carolina came into the season with sky-high expectations, particularly for QB Sam Howell and the offense. Because of poor OL play, those expectations have been anything but met. Howell has been sacked a whopping 27 times this season(almost 4 sacks/game), which has thrown off Howell’s rhythm as a passer(61% completion this season vs 69% completion in 2020). RB Ty Chandler has also been held in check against UNC’s tougher competition; combined with their other struggles, this is an untrustable offense. UNC is somewhat hit-or-miss on defense, but I think they’ll buck up in this crucial game in South Bend. Notre Dame has seemingly turned a corner offensively, but they have had a tough time getting RB Kyren Williams consistent running room. QB Jack Coan is a solid QB, but he’s much more of a game manager than he is a guy that’s going to chuck it all over the yard. This total would be appropriate if UNC had met their preseason expectations offensively, but that simply hasn’t been the case. Even when UNC was effective offensively last season, they only managed to put up 17 on this Notre Dame defense. I’ll play Under in this matchup.
*CFB(1u): BYU TT UNDER 33(-120) vs Virginia–Sat. 9:15 PM CT
Virginia’s defense doesn’t present an overly difficult matchup, but BYU’s offense is getting far too much love with this posted total. The Cougars are scoring just 26 PPG this year and have relied much more on their defense to get to 6-2 through 8 games. They have only eclipsed this 33 point barrier twice this season; once against lowly South Florida(35 points), and another time against Utah State(34 points). While the Cavs defense tends to struggle against dynamic offenses, they have performed quite nicely against more stagnant, pro style offenses such as Illinois and Duke. BYU QB Jaren Hall is still a first-year starter, and his RB’s are not home-run threats. The Cougars also run just 65.4 plays/game(107th in CFB). 33 is far too many points to expect from BYU in this late-night matchup.
*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Iowa +9.5 @ Wisconsin AND Boston College +12.5 @ Syracuse(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Iowa vs Wisconsin features a clash of 2 stagnant offenses but also 2 great defenses. Iowa’s bread-and-butter all season has been forcing turnovers, which just happens to be Wisconsin’s achilles heal. Accordingly, Wisconsin has thrown the ball just 23 times over the past 2 games to avoid turnovers from QB Graham Mertz. Iowa is as stout of a defense as you’re going to find, so I expect them to hold strong against the run-heavy Badgers attack. The Iowa offense looked pitiful in a 7 point effort against Purdue, but with 2 weeks to prepare for this game, I expect some adjustments. Hawkeye QB Stephan Petras isn’t all that reliable, but he’s still far more trustworthy than Mertz. This should be a one-possession, low-scoring game that could go in either direction, so teasing Iowa up to a 2-possession dog seems like a safe bet.
Boston College let us down last week, but I’m going right back to the well with them in this teaser. It’s shocking to see Syracuse laying 6.5 to anybody in a conference game, but I’ll concede that the Orangemen have found success with the combo of QB Garret Shraeder and RB Sean Tucker in the running game. Even so, I trust BC HC Jeff Hafley to have the Golden Eagles ready to play. Boston College has to find a way to move on and recover from the absence of QB Phil Jurkovec; Dennis Grosel has been far too inconsistent since being forced into a starting role. However, Syracuse’s defense is beatable, and I just trust Hafley to have his guys in position to possibly win this game late.
