Starting off hot in any given sport is tough to do with early-season variance but you won’t see any complaints from this guy. A 19-7 and nearly +14 unit start is what dreams are made of. We’ll only settle in and get better as the season progresses so this is a great sign.
Some obvious plays today but not a ton of value overall. Proceeding with caution but pulling the trigger on two wagers:
Grizzlies/Kings over 236 (-110), to win 1 unit
The only thing that makes this result in an under is pure human variance, and that’s why data-dorks won’t ever win consistently long term in NBA betting. Predicting the human element is what we do best and it’s what models and other data points can’t account for. Rant over. Anyway, neither of these teams are playing any defense thus far, Memphis is actually last place in DEF EFF, and a lot of that is because Jaren Jackson Jr. will be OUT until Nov/Dec. He was a force in the paint and Memphis will miss him, but that only opens things for a Kings’ squad that’s already running at the 4th fastest pace in the association. Oh yea, and they’re also bottom third in DEF EFF. This sets up as another game where neither team will care to play defense– Memphis is too physical for the Kings and this isn’t an important spot for the Grizz. We’ll take the over for a light 1 unit.
Warriors 1H TT over 59.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
All the Warriors do is boat-race teams in the first two quarters and I think they’ll come out on fire against Miami at home. The Heat just played in a tough, physical game last night against Portland and this is another rough road spot. The Warriors are coming off a fiery loss against the Suns and they’ll look to reorient tonight in a comfortable spot. The Heat’s defense may step up eventually but I love the Warriors to come out on fire and to score over 60 points in the first half. They’re averaging 67 ppg thru the first 24 minutes.
