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Milwaukee at Chicago +8 (O/U 229)
A screwed up Bulls squad heads home to face Milwaukee on a back-to-back. Losers of 5 straight, they have had a hard time scoring points averaging only 97 in their last 5, shooting 44% from the field and 25% from three. Now have to face a Milwaukee defense, who is 4th in assists, 2nd in field goal % and plays a stingy defense.
While the over might be 2-0 this season(1 via OT), the previous 7 match-ups between these two teams unders are 6-1. The Bulls last 9 games, the under is 7-2 against the closing line, as well as their last 6 at home the under is 5-1. Chicago’s last 5 back-to-backs, the under is 4-1, which tells me they have no problem playing defense on no rest.
The Bucks exited a 3 game western road trip, and had a bit of a let down vs Boston’s B team. Previous to this game, 5/6 had been under, as well as their last 11 away games they are 9-2 to the under.
I don’t see this being a high scoring affair, with Chicago’s inability to shoot at a high % and the Bulls keeping Milwaukee off the offensive boards.
Under 229 (FanDuel -110) 1.25 units
LA Clippers at Phoenix PK (O/U 221.5)
The Clippers head to Phoenix before the All Star break searching for another road to win to add to their resume. They are only 1 of 2 teams with a positive road record in the West, also winners of 7 of 9 road games, with losses at Milwaukee and Cleveland. When they lost to Phoenix back in December, they played with a, quoting Field Media “skeleton Clipper crew.” I was impressed with the Clippers win vs Golden State two nights ago, down 4 at the break, they battled back with 73 2nd half points to pull away late.
The Suns winners of 4 out of 5, have been better recently with Booker and Ayton being healthy. Of those 4 wins, I don’t consider any of them defensive clubs. Now they face the Clippers who give up only 109.2 points per game on 1 day rest. The Suns will have to vastly improve to beat LA tonight. The addition of Durant will be huge for them going forward, but they had to pay the piper losing a lot of their role players in the process. I believe this doesn’t bode well for them tonight, facing a Clipper team with a deep bench. Yes Powell is out for rest, but that bench gets deeper and will be the difference maker tonight.
The Clippers will attack Phoenix tonight at the free throw line and from behind the arc. The Suns rank in the bottom 5 defensively in free throw attempts and free throws made, and have been prone to giving up a high % from three at times this year. The Clips have shot 40% from three in their last 5, and will strike tonight in key moments. This will be a strong unit upgrade for me!
Clippers ML -107 (Barstool) 1.75 units
