WM Phoenix Open – Preview & Picks

Through the past two weeks, we have had a combined ZERO Sunday finishes on the PGA Tour! While last week’s event, the Farmers Insurance Open, had a planned Saturday finish, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am did not. The delayed finish on Monday caused several players to withdraw before the final round either heading to Scottsdale or to the Monday Qualifier to have a chance of playing the WM Phoenix Open. Another issue with the delayed finish was the fact that the PGA Tour changed the cutline from top-65 to top-60. I understand that things can change but, that seriously impacts the betting market along with placement bets.

We came close to another outright at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with Brendon Todd finishing T2. Keith Mitchell was also close finishing T4 but struggled in the final round on the greens.

The WM Pheonix Open will be one of the new ‘elevated’ or ‘designated’ events. This means that the prize pool will increase significantly in order to attract some of the game’s brightest stars. As you can see by the current field, it worked with 8 of the top 10 players in the world competing at TPC Scottsdale.

In addition to the WM Phoenix Open, the Super Bowl will also take place in Scottsdale this week. I wouldn’t be shocked if the attendance record set in 2016 was broken this week due to the influx of people. As always, the 16th will be the main attraction and will undoubtedly bring us some incredible highlights.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 9th, 2023 – February 12th, 2023
• Location: Scottsdale, Arizona, United States
• Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
• Course Type: Desert
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,261 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa trivialis / perennial rye overseed .100’
• Fairways: Perennial ryegrass / fine fescue overseed .400’
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass / fine fescue overseed 2”
• Bunkers: 67
• Water Hazards: 3 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000/ $3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 136 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -2
  • 2021: -3
  • 2020: -1
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 70.29 (-0.71), Rank 26 of 50
  • 2021: 69.46 (-1.54), Rank 42 of 51
  • 2020: 70.32 (-0.64), Rank 18 of 41

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, February 9th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, February 10th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, February 11th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, February 12th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 59 F, 10 mp/h NE, 24% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Sunny 63 F, 11 mp/h E, 13% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 64 F, 10 mp/h SE, 14% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 57 F, 9 mp/h S, 28% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Phoenix Open originated in 1932 under the name of the Arizona Open. It was then switched to the Phoenix Open in 1934 but after the 1935 edition, the tournament was discontinued. In 1939, the Phoenix Open returned with Byron Nelson winning by twelve strokes.

In 1987 the event moved to TPC Scottsdale where it is currently held. Before TPC Scottsdale, the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club and Arizona Country Club. Waste Management took over the naming rights in 2010 and has retained the rights ever since.

This tournament is the best-attended event in golf, with a four-day attendance of roughly half a million people. In 2016, the PGA Tour record single-day attendance record was broken with 618,365 fans entering the grounds. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is one big party centered around the Par 3 16th. It’s referred to as “The Coliseum” and is essentially a free for all where spectators are encouraged to make noise.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 256, Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2013)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 60, Grant Waite (Round 4, 1996), Mark Calcavecchia (Round 2, 2001), Phil Mickelson (Round 2, 2005; Round 1, 2013)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Scottsdale was originally designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris and underwent renovations in 2014. It’s a Par 71 that’s listed at 7,216 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. TPC Scottsdale is a classic desert layout with firm fairways allowing for some of the shorter players off the tee to find success here. The elevation also plays a factor that provides additional support in terms of length. Accuracy off the tee is key this week with TPC Scottsdale having some of the narrowest fairways on Tour. However, the rough isn’t all that penal as it’s only listed at 2″ compared to the Farmer’s which was listed at 3″ plus.

The four Par 3’s range between 183 yards and 215 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 175-200 yards.

No. 16, is the signature hole on the course and what most spectators come to the event for. It’s truly an atmosphere, unlike any other hole on the PGA Tour. The hole itself isn’t overly difficult as it played -0.073 strokes under par last year. Several bunkers surround the green which is the only threat players will face.

The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 490 with the longest being No. 17, playing 332 yards.

No. 11, is the most difficult hole on the course playing 0.239 strokes over par last year. This Par 4 is demanding requiring a long and accurate shot off the tee. Water protects the entire left side of the hole with the ideal landing spot being on the right side of the fairway. The green is on the larger side but is protected by a bunker behind it. Par is a great score here with over 23 double bogeys being recorded on this hole last year, the most by a large margin.

No. 14, is another challenging hole that also played over par last year. Off the tee, players will have an uphill shot that’s fairly straightforward. The difficulty comes into play on their approach shot with an elevated green that’s protected by bunkers. If players do miss left of the putting surface it’ll make an up-and-down significantly more difficult.

No. 17, is a drivable short par 4 that players will need to compose themselves for after playing the 16th. Water does come into play along the left side so any miss should be right.

The two Par 5’s are No. 3 and No. 13. They’re both listed at 558 yards, so the key stat for Par scoring this week would be ‘Par 5 Efficiency: 500-600 Yards.’

No. 3, is the first Par 5 that players will face on the course. Off the tee, players will try to avoid fairway bunkers along the left side allowing them to go for the green in two. They’ll face a two-tiered green on their approach shot which can lead to some difficult putts depending on the pin location.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x6)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
• Proximity: 150-175 Yards
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 136 players in the field at this year’s WM Pheonix Open which is an increase from last year where there were 132 participants. 33 of the world’s top 40 players will be in the field. Collin Morikawa and Shane Lowry return to Scottsdale after not playing in this event the previous two years. Hideki Matsuyama will look to join Phil Mickelson, Mark Calcavecchia, Gene Littler, and Arnold Palmer as the only golfers to have won this event three times. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:

• Jon Rahm (+850), has already won two events this year in just five starts. In the other events, he has yet to finish outside the top 10. This will be his eighth time competing at TPC Scottsdale, finishing inside the top 20 in each of his prior seven appearances. Rahm also has some ties to Arizona as he went to school at Arizona State.
• Rory McIlroy (+900), will make his second start of the season after winning the CJ Cup back in South Carolina. Most recently, he competed in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour which he won. McIlroy has only played in this event one time before which was back in 2021 when he finished T13.
• Xander Schauffele (+1400), has never finished worse than T17 in his five previous appearances at this event. His best finish during that span was T2 back in 2021. So far he’s finished inside the top 15 in four of his five starts on Tour this year after withdrawing at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
• Scottie Scheffler (+1400), is the defending champion after he defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff for his first PGA TOUR title. He’s made six starts this season finishing inside the top 15 in five of those events.
• Justin Thomas (+2000), has five consecutive top-20 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open. His best finishes during that span were in 2019 and 2020 when he finished 3rd. In his four starts on Tour this season he’s finished T40/ 5/ T25/ T25.

 

Previous Winners in the field: Scottie Scheffler (’22), Webb Simpson (’20), Rickie Fowler (’19), Gary Woodland (’18), Hideki Matsuyama (’17,’16)

Notable Withdraws: John Huh, Lanto Griffin

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Xander Schauffele: T17/ T10/ T16/ T2/ T3
• Scottie Scheffler: MC/ T7/ 1
• Jon Rahm: T5/ T16/ T11/ T10/ T9/ T13/ T10
• J.T. Poston: T26/ T37/ T11/ T23
• Max Homa: T26/ T6/ T42/ T14
• Justin Thomas: T17/ MC/ MC/ T17/ 3/ T3/ T13/ T8
• Hideki Matsuyama: T4/ T2/ 1/ 1/ WD/ T15/ T16/ T42/ T8

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Tyler Duncan: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Kelly Kraft: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Mackenzie Hughes: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Joel Dahmen: MC/ WD/ MC/ T62
• Robert Streb: T10/ T37/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Sam Burns: MC/ MC/ T22/ MC
• Adam Schenk: T55/ MC/ MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) – Playoff w/ Patrick Cantlay
  • Price: 25-1
• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
  • Price: 50-1
• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17) – Playoff w/ Tony Finau
  • Price: 14-1
• 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
  • Price: 22-1
• 2018: Gary Woodland (-18) – Playoff w/ Chez Reavie
  • Price: 50-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Xander Schauffele (+1600) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

Xander has been in excellent form this year with finishes of T9/ 4/ T3/ T13. He also has some incredible course history to match. He’s finished inside the top 20 in his five previous appearances at TPC Scottsdale. His approach and putting game have been trending in the right direction in his last two starts. We saw him struggle on these greens last year but he’s gained strokes on Poa Annua greens at both the Farmers and Amex. Ever since he picked up those back-to-back wins last year, he’s been playing with much more confidence. He’s been trending toward a win this season and I think we could see him get it done here this week.

 

• Tony Finau (+2000) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

Tony Finau started the season missing the cut at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba and promptly followed that up with a win at the Houston Open. Since that victory, he’s finished 7/ T7/ T16/ T9. Last year he struggled at TPC Scottsdale missing the cut but wasn’t in great form heading into the event. He’s shown he can have success at this course finishing 2^nd in 2020 losing to Webb Simpson in a playoff. Finau has been great in all of the key categories this week ranking 13^th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 9^th in SG: Approach, and 8^th in SG: Putting. He did struggle on the greens at the Farmers but has gained strokes in each of his three previous starts before that. If he can have success with the flat stick this week, I believe we should see him in contention come Sunday.

 

• Collin Morikawa (+2500) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

Morikawa has been trending toward a win in his last three starts on Tour finishing 6th. 2nd, and 3rd. He’ll make his return to TPC Scottsdale after a two-year absence. Back in 2020, he finished T25 losing 1.17 strokes on the green. In terms of comp courses, he finished 2nd at the CJ Cup in 2021 which was hosted at Summit. Collin’s issues have always stemmed from his putting but in his last two starts, he’s gained strokes. He’s always been an elite ball striker and it was on full display at the Farmers gaining 2.22 strokes on approach. Last season, Morikawa ranked 36th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 152nd in SG: Around-the-Green and has improved this season ranking 11th and 91st in those categories. He’s not a long hitter but the firm fairways provide him an advantage along with ranking 1st in Driving Accuracy.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.22 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Patrick Cantlay (+100) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Patrick Cantlay will make his fourth start on Tour this season. In his last start, he finished T26 losing 1.48 strokes putting. Before that start, he finished T16 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T2 at the Shriners Children’s Open, which is a comp course. Speaking of TPC Summerlin, Cantlay has thrived out there finishing 1/2/2/T8 in his four other appearances at that event. He made his debut at the WM Phoenix Open last year finishing 2^nd where he gained strokes in every category besides one (Around-the-Green). Cantlay has been in great form this year outside of his approach game where he currently ranks 132^nd in strokes gained. However, he’s gained strokes in two of his last three starts and has never lost strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin or TPC Scottsdale. His tee game should allow him to find success this week and given the way he’s been trending in key categories; he should do well.

 

• Sungjae Im (+110) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

Sungjae Im will make his first start at the WM Phoenix Open since 2021 when he finished T17. In his two other appearances at TPC Scottsdale, he finished T34 (2020) and T7 (2019). Im’s also had success at comparable courses winning the Shriners Children’s Open in 2022 and finishing 7th this year. Sungjae has struggled with his irons in the past but at the Farmer’s he was lights out gaining 2.35 strokes on approach. Off the tee, he’s not particularly long but makes up for it with his accuracy which is more important this week. In terms of putting, he gained strokes at The American Express which featured a similar green complex that players will face this week.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Rickie Fowler (-120) – Bet365
  • Risk: 1.20 to win 1.00 Units

*Que Kygo* The rebirth of Rickie Fowler is happening and people need to acknowledge it. He’s made six starts on Tour this season, making the cut in five of those events. His best finish during that span was T2 at the ZOZO Championship where he gained 2.89 strokes over the field. In his most recent start, he finished T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open gaining strokes in every category besides around the green. Luckily enough, that’s not a key category this week so we ignore it. Fowler’s approach play has been phenomenal this ranking 17th on Tour compared to 150th last season. The major concern this week for Rickie is his putting. If we look at his most recent performance at the Farmer’s he gained 1.42 strokes on a similar green complex as TPC Scottsdale. He won the 2019 WM Phoenix Open and has had success here outside that lone victory.

 

• J.T. Poston (+100) – Bet365
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

J.T. Poston has been in great form following his win at the John Deere Classic last year. In his last four starts on Tour, he’s finished T21/ T21/ T21/ T6. Despite ranking 72nd on Tour in SG: Approach, he’s been trending in the right direction gaining strokes in that category in each of his last four starts. His putting has also been better as of late, highlighted by his performance at the Amex gaining 1.23 strokes on the green. In his last two appearances at the WM Phoenix Open, he’s finished T11 and T23. At the Shriner’s Open this season, he played well finishing T20. When you combine his recent play and course history, J.T. Poston should have success this week.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.20 Units

 

Total Risk on the WM Pheonix Open:  5.42 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.