2024 WM Phoenix Open – Preview & Picks

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was cut short due to inclement weather conditions on Sunday. Wyndham Clark shot a 60 on Saturday giving him a one-shot lead over the field. It’s certainly disappointing that we didn’t get a final round at Pebble Beach. This has now become a theme at Pebble Beach as we haven’t had a Sunday finish in the past two years.

LIV Mayakoba was the only game in town on Sunday for golf fans. Joaquin Niemann defeated Sergio Garcia in a four-hole playoff to capture his first victory on the LIV Tour. Although he currently lacks sufficient OWGR points to secure entry into any of the Majors, he’s certainly a contender worth keeping an eye on. Niemann’s extensive participation in DPWT events and notable performances suggest he’s poised to become a familiar presence on that tour as he strives for qualification.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Scottie Scheffler, the current favorite, will look to win his third consecutive WM Phoenix Open. If he’s able to do so, he’ll become the first player since Steve Sticker to do so (John Deere Classic from 2009-11). Scottie won his first PGA Tour event at TPC Scottsdale back in 2022. Since then, he has won five other events including the Masters.

Both Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland have pulled out of this event. Despite Hovland’s victory at the TOUR Championship last year, his performance has faltered this season, culminating in a T22 finish at The Sentry and a T58 finish at Pebble Beach last week. Meanwhile, Xander Schauffele, previously viewed as one of the top contenders for this week’s event due to his strong course history and recent form, encountered challenges at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, finishing T54.

Bud Cauley is set to debut on the TOUR for the first time since the 2020 Fortinet Championship. His return marks a significant milestone after spending much of the last five years on the sidelines due to injuries sustained in a 2018 car accident. Prior to his comeback, Cauley participated in consecutive events on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier this year, finishing T21-T35 as he worked to regain his competitive edge. With 27 starts remaining on his Major Medical Exemption, he aims to secure just over 391 points to maintain his tour card.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 8th, 2024 – February 11th 2024
• Location: Scottsdale, Arizona, United States
• Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
• Course Type: Desert
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,261 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa trivialis / perennial rye overseed .100’
• Fairways: Perennial ryegrass / fine fescue overseed .400’
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass / fine fescue overseed 2”
• Bunkers: 67
• Water Hazard(s): 3 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,800,000 /$1,584,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 70.98 (-0.02), Rank 17 of 49
  • 2022: 70.29 (-0.71), Rank 26 of 50
  • 2021: 69.46 (-1.54), Rank 42 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: E
  • 2022: -2
  • 2021: -3

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, February 8th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, February 9th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, February 10th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, February 11th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Showers 58 F, 11 mp/h S, 66% Humidity, 42% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Showers 57 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 65% Humidity, 56% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: AM Showers 56 F, 9 mp/h SW, 66% Humidity, 44% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Sunny 62 F, 5 mp/h ENE, 50% Humidity, 12% Chance of Rain

The weather is also projected to be a factor as it’s slated to rain Thursday through Saturday. Last year, we had weather issues at this event with the start of play being delayed due to frost. This caused issues with players finishing their rounds on both Thursday and Friday.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Phoenix Open originated in 1932 under the name of the Arizona Open. It was then switched to the Phoenix Open in 1934 but after the 1935 edition, the tournament was discontinued. In 1939, the Phoenix Open returned with Byron Nelson winning by twelve strokes.

In 1987 the event moved to TPC Scottsdale where it is currently held. Before TPC Scottsdale, the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club and Arizona Country Club. Waste Management took over the naming rights in 2010 and has retained the rights ever since.

TPC Scottsdale was built in 1986 and features two championship courses: the Stadium Course and the Champions Course. The Stadium Course, designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish. Over the years, TPC Scottsdale has undergone renovations and enhancements. In addition to the WM Phoenix Open, TPC Scottsdale has hosted various other professional tournaments, including events on the PGA Tour Champions and Korn Ferry Tour.

The WM Phoenix Open holds the record for the highest single-day attendance in PGA Tour history. The tournament routinely attracts massive crowds, particularly during the raucous Saturday round, known as “The People’s Open.” The tournament is famous for its rowdy atmosphere, particularly at the par-3 16th hole, where fans create a stadium-like environment. Players are often greeted with cheers or jeers, depending on their performance.

The WM Phoenix Open has a significant charitable component, with proceeds from the event benefiting various organizations in the Phoenix area. It’s one of the most philanthropic events on the PGA Tour.

 

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 3, Phil Mickelson (2013, 2005, 1996), Gene Littler (1969, 1959, 1955)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 256, Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2013)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 60, Grant Waite (Final round, 1996), Mark Calcavecchia (Round 2, 2001), Phil Mickelson (Round 2, 2005; Round 1, 2013)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Scottsdale was originally designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris and underwent renovations in 2014. It’s a Par 71 that’s listed at 7,216 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. TPC Scottsdale is a classic desert layout with firm fairways allowing for some of the shorter players off the tee to find success here. The elevation also plays a factor that provides additional support in terms of length. Accuracy off the tee is key this week with TPC Scottsdale having some of the narrowest fairways on Tour.

The four Par 3’s range from 163 to 215 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 16, 163 yards, Par 3: This is the signature hole on the course and what most spectators come to the event for. It’s truly an atmosphere, unlike any other hole on the PGA Tour. Several bunkers surround the green which is the only threat players will face.

There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 11.

No. 14, 490 Yards, Par 4: This is another challenging hole that also played over par last year. Off the tee, players will have an uphill shot that’s fairly straightforward. The difficulty comes into play on their approach shot with an elevated green that’s protected by bunkers. If players do miss left of the putting surface it’ll make an up-and-down significantly more difficult.

No. 17, 332 yards, Par 4: This is a drivable short par 4 that players will need to compose themselves for after playing the 16th. Water does come into play along the left side so any miss should be right.

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 3, No. 13, and No. 15. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. Hole No. 13 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.56 below par.

No. 3, 558 yards, Par 5: This is the first Par 5 that players will face on the course. Off the tee, players will try to avoid fairway bunkers along the left side allowing them to go for the green in two. They’ll face a two-tiered green on their approach shot which can lead to some difficult putts depending on the pin location.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	TPC Scottsdale
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.62	268.21
Driving Accuracy	62%	72%
GIR Percentage	66%	64%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.08	26.67
Scrambling Percentage	58%	57%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.50

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past eight editions of the WM Phoenix Open, six of the winners have ranked 4th or higher in Strokes Gained: Approach among the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +49.82, Per Round: +1.38)
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +43.57, Per Round: +1.21)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +33.94, Per Round: +0.94)
    • Gary Woodland (Total: +28.64, Per Round: +0.80)
    • Eric Cole (Total: +26.48, Per Round: +0.74)

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
  • The green complexes at TPC Scottsdale are Poa trivialis / perennial rye overseed .100′.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Denny McCarthy (Total: +42.31, Per Round: +1.18)
    • Maverick McNealy (Total: +29.93, Per Round: +0.83)
    • Peter Malnati (Total: +28.76, Per Round: +0.80)
    • Max Homa (Total: +27.70, Per Round: +0.77)
    • Wyndham Clark (Total: +24.73, Per Round: +0.69)

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Scottsdale range between 175-200 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole (Total: +10.65, Per Round: +0.30)
    • Max Homa (Total: +9.50, Per Round: +0.26)
    • Daniel Berger (Total: +8.63, Per Round: +0.24)
    • Brandon Wu (Total: +8.62, Per Round: +0.24)
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Total: +7.95, Per Round: +0.22)

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-500 Yards (x5 400-450 Yards, x5 450-500 Yards)
  • There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale. Ten of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards.
  • Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Min Woo Lee (Total: +21.61, Per Round: +0.60)
    • Byeong Hun An (Total: +19.65, Per Round: +0.55)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +19.55, Per Round: +0.54)
    • Adam Scott (Total: +18.90, Per Round: +0.52)
    • Beau Hossler (Total: +18.76, Per Round: +0.52)

• • Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole (Total: +18.43, Per Round: +0.51)
    • Ryan Fox (Total: +17.67, Per Round: +0.49)
    • Beau Hossler (Total: +15.98, Per Round: +0.44)
    • Denny McCarthy (Total: +15.51, Per Round: +0.43)
    • Wyndham Clark (Total: +15.20, Per Round: +0.42)

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
  • All of the three Par 5’s at TPC Scottsdale range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Jordan Spieth (Total: +16.71, Per Round: +0.46)
    • Aaron Rai (Total: +16.20, Per Round: +0.45)
    • Rickie Fowler (Total: +14.42, Per Round: +0.40)
    • Max Homa (Total: +14.15, Per Round: +0.39)
    • Wyndham Clark (Total: +13.36, Per Round: +0.37)

• Proximity Gained: 150-200 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 150-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 150-175 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +417.04, Per Round: +11.58)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +395.37, Per Round: +10.98)
    • Brandon Wu (Total: +363.80, Per Round: +10.11)
    • Akshay Bhatia (Total: +347.48, Per Round: +9.65)
    • Nicolas Echavarria (Total: +345.82, Per Round: +9.61)

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 175-200 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Gary Woodland (Total: +574.93, Per Round: +15.97)
    • Eric Cole (Total: +487.11, Per Round: +13.53)
    • Justin Lower (Total: +441.74, Per Round: +12.27)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +426.13, Per Round: +11.84)
    • Chez Reavie (Total: +404.60, Per Round: +11.24)

• Birdies or Better Gained
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole (Total: +48.69, Per Round: +1.35)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +33.99, Per Round: +0.94)
    • J.T. Poston (Total: +33.69, Per Round: +0.94)
    • Adam Scott (Total: +31.99, Per Round: +0.89)
    • Byeong Hun An (Total: +26.43, Per Round: +0.73)

• Scrambling Gained
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Brendon Todd (Total: +17.90, Per Round: +0.50)
    • Aaron Baddeley (Total: +17.36, Per Round: +0.48)
    • Brian Harman (Total: +16.79, Per Round: +0.47)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +16.30, Per Round: +0.45)
    • Denny McCarthy (Total: +15.69, Per Round: +0.44)

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at TPC Scottsdale. Each of the past eight winners have played in this tournament before winning and has registered a top-10 finish or better.

• •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Scottie Scheffler (4 Events – 67.36 Scoring Average)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (6 Events – 68.14 Scoring Average)
    • Justin Thomas (9 Events – 68.38 Scoring Average)
    • Sungjae Im (4 Events – 68.38 Scoring Average)
    • Byeong-Hun An (5 Events – 68.80 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 132 players competing in this year’s tournament. Nine of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Scottie Scheffler (+450) has secured consecutive victories at the WM Phoenix Open. His track record at TPC Scottsdale includes a T7 finish in 2021 and a missed cut in the preceding year. Although he hasn’t clinched a win yet in the 2024 Season, his performance has been consistent with finishes at T6 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), T17 (The American Express), and T5 (The Sentry) in his initial three starts.”

Justin Thomas (+1000) faced challenges last season but appears to have made a comeback. Starting the 2024 season, he secured a T3 finish at The American Express and followed up with a strong T6 performance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Moreover, his remarkable track record at the WM Phoenix Open includes top-20 finishes in each of his last six appearances, showcasing his prowess on the course.

Max Homa (+1400) is set to participate in his sixth WM Phoenix Open. While he’s never missed a cut in this tournament, he’s only managed to break into the top 20 twice. His most notable performance was in 2020, where he secured a T6 finish. Last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am saw Homa facing difficulties, finishing T66 out of a field of 80. However, in his two other starts this year, he achieved solid finishes, securing T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T14 at The Sentry.

Jordan Spieth (+1800) boasts a noteworthy track record at TPC Scottsdale, with top-10 finishes in four out of his seven appearances at this event. However, in last week’s competition, Spieth concluded with a T39 finish, experiencing difficulties on the greens. In his sole other start this year, he impressed with a 3rd place finish at The Sentry.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Scottie Scheffler (’23, ’22), Rickie Fowler (’19), Gary Woodland (’18), Hideki Matsuyama (’17, ’16)
• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Andrew Novak, Ben Kohles, Benjamin Griffin, Benjamin Taylor, Carl Yuan, Carson Young, Chan Kim, Christopher Gotterup, Dylan Wu, Eric Cole, Harry Hall, Jake Knapp, Jorge Campillo, Justin Suh, Kevin Yu, Matthias Schmid, Min Woo Lee, Nicolas Echavarria, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Samuel Stevens, Seonghyeon Kim, Thomas Detry, Tyson Alexander, Victor Perez, Vincent Norrman

• Players with Scottsdale, Arizona ties in the Field:
  • Aaron Baddeley, Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Martin Laird, Nate Lashley, J.J. Spaun, Ryan Moore, Chez Reavie, Kevin Yu, Kevin Streelman, Joel Dahmen
• Notable Withdraws:
  • Viktor Hovland -> IN: Victor Perez
  • Xander Schauffele -> IN: Alexander Björk
  • Davis Riley -> IN: Ryan Fox
  • Patrick Rodgers -> IN: Sami Valimaki
  • Kevin Streelman -> IN: Robert MacIntyre

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 266.5 (-17.5) – SportsBook
• 72 Hole Winning Score – 265.5 (-18.5) – FanDuel

 

Dating back to 2010, the winning score of the WM Phoenix Open has been -18 or lower just five times (36%). However, in a more recent analysis, the winning score reached -19 in two of the past three years.

Regarding the caliber of the field, this year’s event features the lowest field rating we’ve seen in the past three years. In the previous year, the tournament boasted 33 of the top 40 players in the world, headlined by Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler. There has been a noticeable decline in the field rating for this event. In 2022, the field rating stood at 512.00, dropping to 379.52 last year, and further decreasing to 341.65 this year.

 

To place a bet on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

To place a bet at FanDuel on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Facts & Figures:

Recent Form:

• In one of their five previous starts before this event, each of the last 10 winners had a T10 finish or better
• In one of their five previous starts before this event, each of the last 7 winners attained a finish of T7 or better.

Event Specific:

• Before winning, each of the last 8 champions secured a finish of T8 or higher at this event.
• Before clinching victory, 7 out of the last 8 champions achieved a finish of T5 or better at this event.

 

Horses for Courses:

			WM Phoenix Open	WM Phoenix Open	Waste Management Phoenix Open	Waste Management Phoenix Open	Waste Management Phoenix Open
			TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale
	Events Played	Scoring Average (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Scottie Scheffler	4	67.36	1	1	T7	MC	–
Justin Thomas	9	68.38	4	T8	T13	T3	3
Sungjae Im	4	68.38	T6	–	T17	T34	T7
Hideki Matsuyama	10	68.14	T29	T8	T42	T16	T15
Matthew Fitzpatrick	2	68.88	T29	T10	–	–	–

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			WM Phoenix Open	WM Phoenix Open	Waste Management Phoenix Open	Waste Management Phoenix Open	Waste Management Phoenix Open
			TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale	TPC Scottsdale
	Events Played	Scoring Average (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Ryan Moore	18	70.05	MC	T49	MC	MC	MC
Kevin Stadler	8	70.40	–	–	MC	MC	–
Chez Reavie	15	70.5	MC	MC	MC	MC	T4
Denny McCarthy	5	70.79	MC	MC	MC	T59	T33
Tyler Duncan	6	72.17	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
Matt Wallace	2	72.75	MC	MC	–	–	–
Cameron Champ	3	72.63	MC	–	MC	–	T67
Adam Schenk	5	71.50	T23	MC	MC	MC	T55
Troy Merritt	9	70.88	MC	T38	MC	MC	–
Luke Donald	9	70.42	–	MC	MC	MC	–

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
  • Price: 16-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler	18	1	1	19	13

 

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) – Playoff w/ Patrick Cantlay
  • Price: 25-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler	4	13	55	8	2

 

• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
  • Price: 50-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Brooks Koepka	11	2	2	32	18

 

• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17) – Playoff w/ Tony Finau
  • Price: 14-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Webb Simpson	19	2	1	11	12

 

• 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
  • Price: 22-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Rickie Fowler	3	19	17	68	1

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler
  • T11 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T9 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
  • T3 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler
  • T20 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T25 – The American Express (PGA)
  • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T57 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T2 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)

• 2021: Brooks Koepka
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • MC – The American Express (PGA)
  • MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T7 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T5 – Vivint Houston Open (PGA)

• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • 3 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • T10 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • 2 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T7 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
  • T16 – TOUR Championship (PGA)

• 2019: Rickie Fowler
  • T66 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T5 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T16 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T4 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
  • T7 – TOUR Championship (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Scottie Scheffler

	2022	2021	2020
Scottie Scheffler	WON	T7	MC

 

2022: Scottie Scheffler

	2021	2020
Scottie Scheffler	T7	MC

 

2021: Brooks Koepka

	2017	2016	2015
Brooks Koepka	T42	T41	WON

 

2020: Webb Simpson

	2019	2018	2017	2016	2014	2012	2011	2010	2009
Webb Simpson	T20	MC	2	T14	10	T8	T8	MC	65

 

2019: Rickie Fowler

	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Rickie Fowler	T11	T4	2	T46	MC	MC	T26	T13	2	T58

 

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Jordan Spieth (+1800) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

Jordan Spieth enters this event after a T39 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach, despite ranking 70th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. However, he demonstrated strong performances in other areas, finishing 24th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee among 80 competitors. In his only other start this season, he secured a 3rd place finish at The Sentry, gaining strokes across all categories, particularly in putting.

Spieth boasts an impressive course history at this event, with four top-10 finishes in seven appearances.

While there have been instances where players have delivered exceptional performances on the greens without prior indications, Spieth’s recent performance at Kapalua offers a glimmer of hope. If he can continue to strike the ball well and capitalize on opportunities on the green, he stands a chance of contending for the title come Sunday.

 

• Sam Burns (+2000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

Sam Burns arrives at this week’s tournament in excellent form. Over his last two starts, he secured a 10th-place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a T6 finish at The American Express. Notably, at the previous event, his iron play was commendable, ranking 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Although Burns encountered difficulties in his initial two appearances at TPC Scottsdale, missing the cut on both occasions, his recent visits have yielded better outcomes. Last year, he achieved a T6 finish, and in 2021, he finished T22.

His putting has shown marked improvement this season, alongside his ball striking, both of which are crucial factors for success this week. Moreover, Burns has demonstrated enhanced performance in Scrambling over the past 36 rounds, ranking 9th in the field. Combining his recent form with his positive course history, Burns is expected to be a significant contender this week.

 

• Byeong-Hun An (+2800) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.29 to win 8.12 Units

Byeong-Hun An has kicked off this season with an impressive start! In his three appearances, he secured a T31 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a remarkable T2 performance at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and a solid 4th place finish at The Sentry. He has exhibited excellence across all facets of his game, particularly excelling off the tee and on the greens. While facing challenges with his irons last week at Pebble Beach, he managed to gain strokes on approach in the two preceding events.

Additionally, An boasts a commendable course history at TPC Scottsdale, having made the cut in all five of his appearances. During this period, he has garnered four top-25 finishes, with his most notable performance occurring during his event debut back in 2017, where he secured a T6 finish.

Among the field, An ranks impressively in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Putting, and Birdies or Better Gained. With his trajectory pointing towards his first PGA Tour victory since the Genesis Scottish Open and considering his strong course history, this week presents a promising opportunity for him to finally break through.

 

• J.T. Poston (+3300) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

J.T. Poston has enjoyed a remarkable start to the 2024 PGA Tour season. He kicked off the year with a strong T5 finish at The Sentry, followed by a solid 6th place at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a commendable T11 at The American Express. Most recently, he concluded with a respectable T20 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week.

His overall performance has been impressive, particularly notable is his turnaround in play off the tee. In contrast to last year, where he consistently lost strokes off the tee in his last eight events, this season he has consistently gained strokes in that category across all four starts. While he may still lack distance, he has shown increased consistency in finding the fairway.

Although he missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open last year, he had solid performances in the preceding years, finishing T23 in 2022 and T11 in 2021 at the same event.

Despite being ranked 37th in the OWGR, Poston holds a notable 12th position according to Data Golf. Additionally, among the field, he ranks favorably in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling Gained, and Proximity 150-200 Yards. Considering these factors, he appears poised for a successful week in Scottsdale.

• Eric Cole (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

Eric Cole will be making his debut at the WM Phoenix Open this week. The last player to win in their inaugural appearance at TPC Scottsdale was Brooks Koepka back in 2015.

Cole concluded the Fall Swing impressively and carried that momentum into the 2024 season. At last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he secured a commendable T14 finish, ranking 4th amongst the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Before that, he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, a tournament where he has struggled in the past, also missing the cut in 2023. However, before this missed cut, he achieved solid results with a T21 finish at The American Express, T13 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and T14 at The Sentry.

In the previous year, Cole grappled with accuracy off the tee, but this season, he appears to have rectified that issue. His approach play has remained consistently strong, which is crucial for success this week. Over the last 36 rounds, Cole ranks impressively in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Proximity Gained 150-200 Yards, Par 4 Scoring 400-500 Yards, Par 3 Scoring 175-200 Yards, and Birdies or Better Gained.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.57 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Mark Hubbard (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Mark Hubbard is coming off an impressive T4 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he showcased his putting skills by ranking 2nd in the field in SG: Putting. In his previous three starts this season, he secured finishes of T20 (Farmers Insurance Open), T47 (The American Express), and T57 (Sony Open in Hawaii).

This marks Hubbard’s sixth appearance at the WM Phoenix Open. His most notable performance at this event was in 2020 when he finished T9. However, last year, he missed the cut for the first time, struggling in every aspect of his game. Heading into the event last year, Hubbard was enduring a rough patch, having missed the cut in his previous five events.

However, Hubbard’s fortunes changed in the latter half of the 2023 season, and he has carried that momentum into the beginning of the 2024 season. His approach game has been much more consistent gaining strokes in each of his last four starts. Additionally, his tee game has also seen enhancement.

As putting is crucial for success at this tournament, it’s noteworthy that Hubbard has gained strokes on the green in three of his last four starts, indicating a promising trend in his performance.

 

• Tom Hoge (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

Tom Hoge has been displaying excellent form recently, particularly in his approach play and putting, both of which are crucial factors for success this week. At the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, he secured a T6 finish, ranking 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Before that, he finished T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T17 at The American Express. Notably, in each of his past five events, he has gained strokes on approach

This marks Hoge’s seventh appearance at the WM Phoenix Open. Last year, he missed the cut, struggling off the tee and on the greens. Specifically, in Round 2, he ranked 132nd in Strokes Gained: Putting among the field of 136. His best finish in seven outings here was in 2022, where he secured a T14 placement.

Hoge’s iron play has been notably improving, which bodes well for his performance at this event. Additionally, he ranks favorably in Proximity 150-200 yards, which is where the majority of approach shots are made. Moreover, Hoge ranks 18th in the field in terms of birdies or better, further highlighting his potential for success.

 

• Nick Taylor (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Nick Taylor found himself in contention to win this event last year, but a bogey on the 16th hole dashed his hopes. Despite making a birdie on the 17th, it wasn’t enough to catch up, and Scottie Scheffler ultimately claimed victory by two shots. This runner-up finish in 2023 marked Taylor’s best performance at the WM Phoenix Open to date.

Coming off a T71 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, where he struggled only around the greens, Taylor’s season has seen varied results. He missed the cut at The American Express, secured a T7 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and placed T52 at The Sentry. Notably, in each of these events, he gained strokes both on the greens and in approach play.

Taylor has demonstrated improved consistency in his iron play recently, a skill he’ll need to rely on this week. Additionally, he ranks favorably in Proximity 150-200 yards, an area crucial for approach shots. While not a long hitter off the tee, his accuracy can provide him with an advantage, as evidenced by his performance last year.

 

• Nate Lashley (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Nate Lashley, a resident of Scottsdale, showcased an impressive performance at the Farmers Insurance Open, securing a T3 finish. However, his season has seen mixed results, with missed cuts at The American Express and the Sony Open in Hawaii. Lashley’s performance on specific courses tends to be predictable; he has missed the cut at Pebble Beach for the past four years and at Waialae CC in three of his last four appearances. Thus, his prior finishes at the Amex and Sony Open, though concerning, are consistent with his past performances.

Last year at the WM Phoenix Open, Lashley finished T61, struggling particularly around the green. In 2022, he missed the cut, experiencing difficulties across various aspects of his game, albeit during a period of overall inconsistency where he missed the cut in six out of eight events. However, he has also found success at this event, finishing T17 in 2021 and T3 in 2020.

Lashley also holds favorable rankings in Par 3 Scoring from 175 to 200 Yards, Par 4 Scoring from 450 to 500 Yards, and Par 5 Scoring from 500 to 600 Yards.

Despite a variable performance history, Lashley has demonstrated a potential for high achievement. With a strong showing at the Farmers Insurance Open, if his approach game continues its positive trajectory, he stands a chance of success this week.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 4.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Total Risk on the WM Phoenix Open: 5.57 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.