We’re 7-2 (+5 units) in our last nine WNBA picks and now it’s playoff time baby!! I really enjoy capping the postseason because you know that motivation is going to be at an all-time high for all teams each and every night. Games begin again tomorrow with the Liberty vs. Sky and Mercury vs. Aces. Let’s see where we can find some value…
ALSO, a little shameless plug… I am launching a new podcast called All Bets Are On with Kate Constable. The first episode will debut tomorrow, so be on the lookout for that on Twitter. I’ll go over each first-round series in more depth and hopefully provide some helpful info, entertainment and maybe a free pick or two! I would love it if you would check it out and welcome any feedback.
Aces TT O91, 1 unit*
(so far I’ve seen this number at BetUS, but I expect to see this same number once it becomes available at all other books. I would play it up to 92.)
The Mercury earned their way into the 8th seed in the playoffs with help from the Liberty beating the Dream and the Lynx losing their final two games to the Storm and Sun. Unfortunately for Phoenix, they now must face the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces. And let me tell you, the Mercury aren’t going to be much of a problem for Becky Hammon’s squad. Vegas swept Phoenix 3-0 during the regular season, and I expect another sweep from the Aces and a swift exit for the Mercury.
This game opened at Aces -12.5 and has jumped up to -14, so I’m not sure there’s much value left in that number. Plus, that’s a pretty hefty spread. While Vegas has covered that number in two of their three meetings with Phoenix this year, I feel more comfortable taking a different angle, which is why we’re going to play Vegas’ team total over 91.
The final scores in those three contests were: 106-88, 86-74, 100-80. All Vegas starters scored in double-digits in two of the three matchups, with A’ja Wilson being the only starter not to reach that mark in their final meeting of the regular season. I think it’s safe to expect a big game out of the MVP frontrunner on Wednesday. The Aces’ offense has also been very effective in those games, shooting 58%, 46% and 47% respectively against Phoenix.
The Aces have also been very efficient on offense as of late, averaging 96 points over their last four games, all of which were wins. Those games were also against the Storm (twice), Sky and Dream, all of which are top-5 teams in defensive rating this season. The Mercury will be without Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith on Wednesday and while Phoenix actually plays better defensively without Taurasi, I still don’t think they’re going to be much of a match for the Aces’ high-powered offense.
Plus, without Taurasi and Diggins-Smith leading the Mercury’s offense, I think Vegas will be able to disrupt their flow and gameplan on that end of the floor and will be able to force turnovers that lead to fast break opportunities. Not to mention Vegas owns the overall turnover battle in their previous three meetings with Phoenix. This one has Vegas written all over it. It’s going to be a tough, quick series for the Mercury.
More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
