It’s been a little while since I’ve given out a free pick here, but I’m back! I took a little time away for a family vacation and have since been out of commission with COVID, but we’re feeling better and ready to give out some winners.
Sky vs. Sun O160.5, 1 unit*
The Chicago Sky and Connecticut Sun meet on Tuesday for Game 4 of the WNBA semifinals. Chicago leads the series 2-1, so this game is a must-win for Connecticut if they want to keep their season alive. The total for this game sits at 160.5 and I like the over. The over has yet to hit in this series, but really, it should have in 2 of the 3 games thus far.
A lot of times the narrative in the playoffs is that the game slows down and teams pick up the defensive intensity. That was certainly the case in Game 1 of this series, but the under hit in Game 3 by 14 points because of poor offensive execution. Connecticut went 8-26 in the paint in the first half and finished the game just 18-48 in the paint. That’s 27.5%! Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas, and DeWanna Bonner combined to go 10-36 overall. Even just a bit of positive regression for the Sun on offense on Tuesday has the ability to push this game over.
It was much of the same on Chicago’s side. Allie Quigley went 1-11 from the field. That isn’t going to happen again. Candace Parker led the Sky in scoring but still only shot 5-14 from the field and 1-6 from three. As a team, they shot just 37%. Not to mention both teams went on a four-minute scoring drought in the fourth quarter.
These two teams played four times during the regular season and averaged a total of 177 in those games. I don’t think we’ll see a number quite that high in Game 4, but with a little offensive regression and the Sun with their backs against the wall, we’re going to get two teams that a focused and ready to knock down shots on Tuesday.
More free plays to come, so stay tuned! In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
