We’re 0-1 to start our free picks here at the OddsBreakers and that loss was especially brutal. The Sun were up 20ish nearly all game before giving up 35 points in the 4th quarter and 8 points in the final:45 seconds to lose by the hook. Not fun, but we move on!
Lynx -3.5, 1 unit*
The Lynx are coming off a disappointing 92-87 loss to the Dallas Wings last night and they now hit the road for a matchup with the Fever tonight in Indianapolis. Not only does that make this a back-to-back for Minnesota, but it’s also a 3-in-4 with the first of those three games having gone into double OT against the Mercury on Tuesday. In most situations, I’d look to fade a team in this type of schedule spot, but I’m going to lay the points with the Lynx tonight.
Minnesota has turned a major corner in the last three weeks, winning six of their last nine games by an average of 16.3 PPG. Their only losses in that timeframe have come against the Ace and Sky, two of the top teams in the league, and the Wings last night. They’re also 7-2 ATS.
One of the biggest reasons for their recent resurgence is the return of Sylvia Fowles from her knee injury. Fowles is one of the game’s greats, so it makes sense that she would have a positive impact on her team. Having her back has brought a new mentality to the floor for Minnesota. Aerial Powers is also another big reason. After a rough start to the season, Powers has finally found her grove, averaging 21 points over the last five games, and is playing at a much higher level than we saw early on. The Lynx have been waiting for her to take on the lead guard role and her ability to do that as of late has been a huge difference maker for this team.
Indiana won the previous two meetings with Minnesota by a combined 10 points. However, the first win came early in the season when the Lynx looked like a completely different team than they do now. The second win came in June when Minnesota was without Fowles, and Powers had yet to turn up her game. I don’t see the Lynx getting swept by the worst team in the league.
Minnesota is also eyeing a playoff spot, something that didn’t look possible with the way they started the season. They sit just a game and a half outside of the 8th spot, which means every win matters from here on out. The same can’t be said for Indiana. With only five wins on the season, the Fever’s playoff hopes are pretty much dead. And they know that too. The focus for Indiana for the rest of the season is to develop their young players, get them good minutes, and elevate their experience.
The Fever looked lifeless for all but the fourth quarter of their last game against the Sun, and I think we see a similar team tonight. Minnesota is going to come into this game with revenge on their mind. Plus, I’d much prefer to back a team that has something to play for, even if they are a bit short on rest. It’s all Lynx for me tonight!
More free plays to come next week. In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
