Time for a free WNBA pick! We’re 1-2 here at The OddsBreakers after I faded my hometown team – the Chicago Sky – and they ended up covering against the Storm. Lesson learned not to bet against your favorite team, right? Wrong! We’re doing it again today.
Aces +3, 1 unit*
The Las Vegas Ace and Chicago Sky meet in the Windy City tonight for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship. For those of you that might not be familiar with the Commissioner’s Cup, it’s essentially the WNBA’s in-season tournament. Select games throughout the first half of the season are considered “Cup games” and the two teams from each conference with the best record in said games play for the championship. Each player on the winning team gets $30k while each player on the losing team gets $10k. An additional $5k is given to the MVP of the game. Needless to say, there is a lot at stake in tonight’s game.
While the prize money undoubtedly adds another layer of competitiveness, this game would have been competitive nonetheless. The Sky owns the league’s best record at 21-7 and the Aces are right behind them at 20-8. The season series between these teams is tied 1-1 with both teams winning on the road.
When I feel like a game is going to come down to the final few possessions, I always like to have the points in my back pocket. However, while I see that being the case in this game, I also think the Aces not only have what it takes to cover but could even win outright. Vegas’ offensive firepower is hard to match. They have two of the top-5 scorers in the WNBA right now in Kelsey Plum and A’ja Wilson. The Aces also own the best 3-point percentage in the league and Plum is the leader in 3-pointers made.
This is also a great revenge spot for the Aces after suffering a terrible loss to Chicago the last time they met. In that meeting, Vegas got off to an early 28-point lead before Chicago stormed back to complete the largest comeback in WNBA history. The Aces had a complete meltdown in the second half and the Sky went on to win 104-95. If there’s ever a perfect revenge spot, this is it.
Now, there’s definitely an argument to be made that Chicago is the better defensive team and a much deeper team. Both those things are true. But they’re coming off of a tough travel spot, having played a back-to-back with the second leg in New York and travel difficulties getting there. I could see them coming into this game a bit fatigued and not able to match Vegas’ offensive production for the full 40 minutes.
Take the points with the Aces and maybe even sprinkle a little on that ML.
Another free play coming for Thursday’s games, so stay tuned for more. In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
