The Sun gave us a big offensive performance last night to hit their team total over 83.5. We’re now 4-1 in our last five WNBA picks, +2.9 units!
Mercury 1H +2.5, 1 unit*
The Mercury and Lynx meet for the fourth and final time this season. Minnesota has won each of the previous three games, so Phoenix will be looking to avoid a season series sweep tonight. While the Mercury have home court advantage, where they’re 10-5 this season, they’ll be without their star player Diana Taurasi who is sidelined for the remainder of the regular season with a quad injury. While not having Taurasi is definitely a blow offensively, Phoenix is a much better team defensively without her on the floor. They only allow 92.0 points per 100 possessions with her off the floor compared to 106.0 with her on the floor. I also think the team plays harder and with more urgency when she’s not in the lineup. And I know she’s missed the last two games and they’ve only gone 1-1, but this is the first game since it was announced that she’ll be out for the remainder of the regular season.
This game also matters a ton in terms of the playoff race. Phoenix currently owns the 7th seed with three games remaining, including tonight. Their next two games are against the Dallas Wings and Chicago Sky, meaning tonight’s game is probably their best chance at a win between the three. The same thing goes for Minnesota. They’re currently sitting outside the playoff picture, but only by half a game. They too have a tough schedule to finish out the season with games against Seattle and Connecticut.
With so much riding on this game, I think we see two teams that come out motivated tonight. I’m not sure I trust the Mercury for a full 40 minutes, but I see no reason to think they won’t keep this one close in the first half. They’ve covered the first half spread in two of their three meetings with Minnesota and in each of their last five home games. Let’s make it six tonight!
Liberty 1H +2.5, 1 unit*
I also like this same play for the Liberty. And for many of the same reasons. They need every win they can get if they want a chance at making the playoffs. If they lose tonight, it’s going to be really tough for them to climb up the standings even with two games against the Dream to finish off the regular season.
New York lost to Dallas 86-77 on Monday after a terrible first quarter in which they trailed the Wings 24-13 heading into the second quarter and by six at the half. They can’t make that same mistake again if they want to win this one. Just like Phoenix, I think we get a motivated New York team right out of the gate. I lean to the Liberty +5 for the full game too but my only official play in this game will be New York 1H +2.5.
More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
