What do we have in common with the Las Vegas Aces? We both took home the cash last night! They won the Commissioner’s Cup – and some nice prize money – and we won our Aces +3 bet. Hope you put a little on that ML too. We’re 2-2 with two more picks coming today.
Mercury -3.5, 1 unit*
All teams, outside of the Ace and Sky, had a nice three-day break because of the Commissioner’s Cup, so all teams should come into Thursday’s matchups rested. However, the last few days for the Sparks have been filled with a bit more drama than I’m sure they’d like. Liz Cambage and the Sparks agreed to a contract divorce (is that a real term?) and so she’s no longer with the organization. While Cambage wasn’t having a particularly great season anyway, her absence inside is something that LA is going to need to adjust to.
Meanwhile, the Mercury comes into Thursday’s game with momentum after a win over the Seattle Storm on Sunday. That was a big game because it was likely the last time we’ll see Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird on the court together unless they meet in the playoffs. Phoenix has a habit of getting up for big games and Thursday’s matchup with the Sparks is another big one. The Mercury are a half-game behind the Sparks in the standings and currently sit one spot out of the playoff picture. LA has won two out of the three meetings between these two teams thus far, so another win by LA would mean they own the tiebreaker should the two teams finish with the same record.
Phoenix’s first loss to the Sparks was early in the season when the Mercury were struggling to find themselves in a new system and new head coach. The Sparks shot 72.7% from deep and Phoenix still only lost by five. That type of shooting isn’t going to happen again. Their second loss also came on the road and by a narrow margin. With the Mercury back at home for this game and with something to play for, I’ll gladly lay the points against an LA team that is experiencing quite a bit of turmoil at the moment.
Wings/Mystics Under 160.5, 1 unit*
The other day I tweeted that Washington is the most profitable under team in the WNBA this season, hitting the under 67.9% of the time. (Yes, that was a shameless plug to follow me on Twitter @KateConstable) The total has closed at 160 or above in only 11 of their games. Of those 11 games, eight of them have gone under. Knowing that, whenever I see one of their games at 160 or higher, my first instinct is to bet the under. Now, I don’t like to go solely off trends when capping games as there are a lot of other things to consider, but in this case, I think it’s the right play.
The Wings play at the 9th slowest pace in the league, while the Mystics are dead last in pace. Washington also ranks in the top five in opponent FG%, 3PT% and FT%. Not to mention they’re ranked first in offensive rebounds allowed which is important because much of Dallas’ offense comes from second-chance points. Let’s not overthink this one. Take the under.
More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
