The Astros scuffled down the stretch in Game 1 of the World Series(thanks, Verlander), and I didn’t hand out a play in Game 2. It’s been a profitable year for us in MLB, and I’m back tonight with a play in Game 3 of the World Series. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5(-135) vs Astros–7:03 PM CT
Is -135 a little more juice than I usually like laying? Sure. However, we should not be getting a 1.5 here, plain and simple.
The Phillies handled righties in their home ballpark better than any team in baseball over the final 2 months of the season(136 wRC+), and that has carried over into the postseason. The Phillies have crushed the likes of Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove at Citizens Bank Park here in the month of October. Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr does have postseason pedigree, but a large chunk of that dates back to the 2017 ALCS. I’m not afraid to bet against McCullers because he has walked over 4.5 batters/9 on the road each of the past 2 seasons and looked shaky against the Yankees in his last start. McCullers is no more equipped to hold down this Phillies lineup than any of the other 4 aforementioned arms; I think Philadelphia puts up at least 2 in the F5.
I would lean towards the Phillies F5 ML as well given the Astros held below average numbers vs righties on the road over the final half of the regular season. Two factors are holding me off, however. The Astros did fare well against Gerrit Cole in Yankee Stadium the last time we saw them in this role and are in general a lineup I’m not comfortable going against in the postseason. And, do I really wanting to be trusting Noah Syndergaard in the World Series? He is not a main contributor to this club, and I wasn’t impressed with how he fared down the stretch after getting dealt over from the Angels. Of course, I could never play on the Phillies over the full game given they hold a massive bullpen disadvantage in the later innings.
Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5 is the play… best of luck to all who partake!
