Seamus Power took home the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He struggled a bit on Sunday but was able to close it out. We just missed on our outright sections with Kevin Yu (80-1) and Patrick Rodgers (30-1) finished two off the lead.
The PGA Tour travels to Playa Carmen, Mexico this week. This event has been held here since 2007 so we do have some course history. However, we do not have any ShotLink data. It’s a decent field with Scheffler, Hovland, and Morikawa all making the trip so it should be an exciting event.
- Dates: November 3rd, 2022- November 6th, 2022
- Location: Playa Carmen, Mexico
- Course: El Camaleon GC at the Mayakoba Resort
- Course Type: Coastal
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,017 yards
- Format: 72-hole stroke play
- Greens: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
- Fairways: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
- Rough: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum 2″
- Bunkers: A lot
- Water Hazards: A lot (canals run through the course, holes border the ocean)
- Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
- Stimpmeter: 11 ft.
- Purse/ Winner: $8,200,000/$1,476,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2021: 69.10 (-1.90), Rank 40 of 50
- 2020: 69.77 (-1.23), Rank 39 of 51
- 2019: 70.09 (-0.91), Rank 21 of 41
- Historic Cut Line:
- 2021: -4
- 2020: -1
- 2019: -1
Course Architect:
- Course Architect: Greg Norman (2006)
- Renovations: N/A
Comparable Courses & Greens:
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Greens (Sea Isle 1 Paspalum):
- Grand Reserve Golf Club – Sea Dwarf Paspalum – Puerto Rico Open
- Corales Golf Course – Supreme paspalum .100” – Corales Puntacana Championship
- Vidanta Vallarta – Paspalum – Mexico Open at Vidanta
- Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):
- Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – Cadence Bank Houston Open
- PGA National Resort – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic
- Vidanta Vallarta – 7,000 sq. ft. – Mexico Open at Vidanta
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, November 3rd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
- Round 2: Friday, November 4th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
- Round 3: Saturday, November 5th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
- Round 4: Sunday, November 6th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM
- Thursday: Thunderstorms 80 F, 11 mp/h E, 86% Humidity, 90% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Scattered Thunderstorms 81 F, 11 mp/h E, 77% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 79 F, 9 mp/h E, 73% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Mostly Sunny 79 F, 7 mp/h ENE, 68% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
In 2007, El Camaleon became the home of the Mayakoba Golf Classic, the first PGA Tour event to ever be held outside the US and Canada. The first six editions of this event were played in February however, in 2013, the event moved to November where it has remained.
This WWT Championship at Mayakoba was originally an alternate event being held the same week as the WGC Match Play event. However, when it was moved to November this tournament also became a primary event with the full FedEx Cup points offered.
Last year, World Wide Technology became the sponsor and will retain rights until 2027. The purse has also increased a million dollars from last year.
72-Hole Record: 261, Viktor Hovland (2021)
18-Hole Record: 61, Roland Thatcher (3rd round, 2008)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
El Camaleon is another coastal course that is relatively short but, will punish players off the tee if they miss the fairway. The course is lined with thick woods throughout the course so accuracy off the tee will be placed at a premium this week. In addition to the woods/ jungle surrounding most holes, the course also features a lot of water. The water hazards do not necessarily come into play every hole but, a miss right or left can mean trouble. Most holes also have bunkers surrounding the greens which again will mean approach shots need to be on. The wind we saw last week in Bermuda won’t be as bad but, it will need to be considered on holes that border the ocean. Given the previous winner’s scores, players will need to take advantage of every birdie opportunity. The three Par 5’s on the course are relatively short so players should have a few eagle looks deepening on their approach shot.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
- Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
- Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
- Scrambling
- Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+900), is coming off a T45 at the CJ in South Carolina. He’s played here twice before finishing T18 in 2020 and 4th in 2021.
- Viktor Hovland (+1100), has won the last two editions of the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. He’s been playing some great golf as of late with a T21 finish at the CJ Cup and a T5 finish at the ZOZO Championship.
- Billy Horschel (+1800), enters this event off a T7 finish at the CJ Cup. He’s played at Mayakoba seven times before finishing inside the top 10 in two of his last three appearances here.
- Collin Morikawa (+1800), will make his debut this week at Mayakoba. He’s been trending in the right direction finishing T45 at the ZOZO Championship and following that up with a T29 finish at the CJ Cup.
- Tony Finau (+1800), has three top-20 finishes at Mayakoba in his six appearances. He’ll be making his first start of the 2022-23 season this week.
Previous Winners in the field: Viktor Hovland (’21, ’20), Brendon Todd (’19), Matt Kuchar (’18), Patton Kizzire (’17), Charley Hoffman (’14), Harris English (’13), John Huh (’12)
Notable Withdraws: Webb Simpson, Taylor Moore, Denny McCarthy, Nicholas Lindheim, Vince Whaley, Kelly Kraft
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
- Viktor Hovland: MC/ MC/ 1/ 1
- Adam Long: T2/ T3/ T22
- Scottie Scheffler: T18/ 4
- Matt Kuchar: T18/ T3/ T68/ 1/ T14/ T22
- Maverick McNealy: T26/ T12/ T11
- Brendon Todd: MC/ T49/ MC/ 1/ T8/ T11
- Billy Horschel: T13/ T30/ MC/ T21/ T8/ T5/ T33
- Aaron Wise: T55/ MC/ T10/ MC/ 2/ T15
- Danny Lee: WD/ MC/ T3/ WD/ 2T5/ 2/ T26/ T7
- Emiliano Grillo: T10/ T9/ 15/ T41/ T8/ MC
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
- Michael Gligic: MC/ MC
- Sebastian Vazquez: MC/ MC/ MC
- Joseph Bramlett: T65/ MC/ MC
- An Byeong-Hun: MC/ MC
- Juan Sebastian Munoz: T64/ MC/ MC
- Michael Kim: T51/ MC/ MC/ MC
- David Lingmerth: MC/ MC/ WD
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23)
- Price: 18-1
- 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
- Price: 22-1
- 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
- Price: 110-1
- 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
- Price: 60-1
- 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
- Price: 70-1
Picks (Outrights):
My apologies for no writeups this week, my laptop crashed halfway through the article and I lost all progress.
- Collin Morikawa (+1800) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
- Tom Hoge (+3000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
- Taylor Montgomery (+4000) – Caesars
- Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
- Nick Hardy (+8000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outright Placements: 1.02 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Emiliano Grillo (+125) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Grillo has been trending upwards as of late finishing inside the top 45 in four of his last five starts. During that span, he finished T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 4th at the ZOZO Championship. He has solid course history here finishing inside the top 10 three times in his six appearances. Grillo has also played well at a course comp this week, the Puerto Rico Open.
He’s not long off the tee but given the short course and tight fairways, accuracy is more important. He currently ranks 53rd in Driving Accuracy, 17th in GIR %, and 73rd in SG: Approach. Grillo’s also gained strokes on this course five of six times with last year being the only outlier. This course fits him well and if he can gain strokes on approach, he should fair well here.
- Brendon Todd (+170) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Todd’s been in great form as of late with two top-10 finishes in his last four starts on Tour. He has some impressive course history here as well winning in 2019 and finishing 8th and 11th in the following years. In each of his last three starts at El Camaleon GC, he’s gained over 1.75 total strokes total.
He ranks 44th in Driving Accuracy which is important this week given the tight fairways. His approach game has also been trending upwards ranking 32nd in strokes gained. A few weeks ago at the CJ Cup, he nearly gained two strokes on approach. His putting has also been good gaining strokes in each of his last four starts. Given his recent play and course history, I like him to finish inside the top 20 for a fourth consecutive year.
Just Missed: Matt Kuchar, Adam Long
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Harris English (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Harris English has been in good form finishing inside the top 40 in three of his last four starts. His best finish during that span was at Silverado Resort and Spa where he finished T9. In terms of course history, he’s had success here finishing T5 in back-to-back appearances and winning this event in 2013.
He ranks well in most of the key categories this week with his tee game being the only area of concern. He’s not long off the tee by any means and as we saw at the CJ Cup, he wasn’t accurate at all. Despite all of that, he still managed to finish T40.
- Joel Dahmen (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Joel Dahmen has finished inside the top 40 in each of his last three starts on Tour. At El Camaleon GC he’s finished no higher than T45 in his six appearances. He ranks well in each of the key categories this week outside of putting. He’s lost strokes on the green in each of his three starts but has still placed well. This is the lone outlier this week as it is a bit of an unknown for him. However, if he can putt well this week, I like him even more. Dahmen also won the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021 which has a similar green complex.
Just Missed: Justin Lower, Nick Taylor
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the WWT Championship at Mayakoba: 5.02 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
