Wyndham Championship – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Lee Hodges backers last week at the 3M Open. He entered the final round with a massive lead and never faltered going on to win the event by 7 strokes!

We head to the final event of the FedEx Cup regular season, the Wyndham Championship.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Tom Kim became the first player born in the 2000s to win a PGA TOUR event last year at the Wyndham Championship. In addition to that, he’s also the youngest player to have ever won this event. Kim started off the tournament with a quadruple bogey and rallied to win, also the first player in PGA Tour history to have accomplished that feat. He enters this event in great form having finished inside the top 10 in each of his past two starts.

The Wyndham Champion concludes the FedEx Cup Regular season. Next week, the three-event FedEx Cup Playoffs will begin at TPC Southwind. The top 70 players advance to next week’s event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Last year, the top 75 advanced so it will be a critical week for some of those players on the cut line.

A few of those players just outside the top 70 include Ben Griffin (No. 71), Cam Davis (No. 72), K.H. Lee (No. 73), S.H. Kim (No. 74), and Justin Thomas (No. 79).

⛳ Here is what every golfer has to do this week at the Wyndham to qualify for next week's playoffs. pic.twitter.com/MGUm5xpUne

— Len Hochberg ⛳ (@LenHochberg) August 1, 2023

Ryder Cup captains Luke Donald and Zach Johnson, are also in the field this week.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: August 3rd, 2023 – August 6th, 2023
• Location: Greensboro, North Carolina, United States
• Course: Sedgefield Country Club
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,131 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Champion bermudagrass .120”
• Fairways: Bermudagrass .400”
• Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5”
• Bunkers: 52
• Water Hazard(s): 5 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5+ ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $7,600,000/ $1,368,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 69.26 (-0.74), Rank 27 of 50
  • 2021: 68.88 (-1.12), Rank 34 of 51
  • 2020: 68.78 (-1.22), Rank 29 of 41
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -1
  • 2021: -3
  • 2020: -3

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, August 3rd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, August 4th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, August 5th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, August 6th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Rain 77 F, 10 mp/h SSW, 76% Humidity, 62% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Isolated Thunderstorms 83 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 76% Humidity, 47% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Scattered Thunderstorms 87 F, 8 mp/h SW, 73% Humidity, 36% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: PM Thunderstorms 89 F, 9 mp/h SW, 70% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Wyndham Championship was founded in 1938 as the Greater Greensboro Open. It is the seventh oldest tournament on the PGA Tour excluding Major Championships. In 2007 the title sponsor changed, and the event was renamed to what it’s currently called. Along with the name change, the tournament was also moved from autumn to mid-August.

This tournament has been held in the greater Greensboro area throughout its entire history. In the first four years of the event, it was played at both Sedgefield Country Club and Starmount Forest Country Club. From 1977 – 2007, the tournament was held at Forest Oaks. However, since then, the Wyndham Champion has taken place at Sedgefield Country Club.

In 2018, Brandt Snedeker posted a 59 in the first round. This was just the tenth sub-60 round in the history of the PGA Tour.

In 2021, Kevin Kisner won the six-man playoff which tied the PGA Tour record for the largest number of participants in a sudden-death playoff.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 8, Sam Snead – 1938, 1946, 1949, 1950, 1955, 1956, 1960, 1965
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 258, Henrik Stenson (2017), J.T. Poston (2019)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 59, Brandt Snedeker (1st round, 2018)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Sedgefield Country Club is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average. Based on that, we should see another winner around -20 this week. Driving accuracy will be placed at a premium this week given the fact that the bermuda rough can force players to lay up based on their lie.

Sedgefield Country Club is on the shorter side measuring 7,131 yards. It ranks 20th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 9th of 46, with the average fairway width being 28.9 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 52 bunkers which ranks as the 7th fewest out of the 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s at Sedgefield range from 174 to 235 yards. Last year, holes No. 3., No. 7, and No. 16 had a scoring average under par. The lone other par 3s, No. 12 had a scoring average of 0.135 above par.

No. 3, 174 yards, Par 3: “This mid-length par three hole is generally played into the prevailing wind and contains three of the deepest bunkers on the course, short and right. The large, somewhat subtle green narrows the deeper into the green one plays. Long and left is a very difficult up and down, with the green sloping away from the player.”

No. 7, 223 yards, Par 3: “On this long par three, the green is guarded on three sides by a deep creek and features a soft punch bowl green with very difficult hole locations in the corners. Par is a great score on this demanding hole.”

No. 12, 235 yards, Par 3: “The longest par three on the course will require a very precise approach into a dramatic two-tier green cut into the face of a hill. Anything short will roll well back from the green and require a difficult up and down. Dead center of this green is the preferred line and will give the player the best chance of escaping with a par or occasional birdie.”

No. 16, 175 yards, Par 3: “This short par three will provide the player an opportunity to be aggressive. However, the horseshoe-shaped green will wreak havoc on misplayed tee shots and chips from around the green. Two four-foot-deep pot bunkers guarding the green require a demanding short iron approach.”

There are twelve Par 4’s at Sedgefield with the majority (eight) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. The two toughest holes are No. 14 and No. 18, which both play over 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the two toughest Par 4’s last year were No. 11 (+0.235) and No. 14 (+0.258).

No. 2, 442 yards, Par 4: “One of the best holes ever designed by Donald Ross. The tee shot will require a slight fade over the middle of three diagonal cross bunkers to set up the shortest and best line into a green that’s well-protected on the right by a creek. Approach shots should favor the left side of the green, which leans hard right toward the creek.”

No. 11, 486 yards, Par 4: “The proper line for this tee shot is the bunker seen in the distance short and right of the green. The severely canted fairway will kick a right-to-left tee shot into the left-hand rough. The approach shot into this green is deceptive and can be bounced in by landing a long to middle iron just over the approach bunker 25 yards short and right of the green.”

No. 14, 505 yards, Par 4: “This very difficult and demanding long par four requires a right-to-left tee shot over the fairway bunker at 275 yards. Two center-line bunkers create a deceptive approach into this “skyline” green. The green is the largest on the course and probably one of the most difficult to putt due to its severe slope from back right to front left.”

No. 17, 406 yards, Par 4: “One of the most beautiful holes in North Carolina. This deep, saddled fairway meanders up an old creek bed filled in by Ross. A short iron approach into the smallest green on the course is compounded by the difficulty of finding a level lie in the fairway. A natural amphitheater surrounds the green, making it
a great place to view an exciting finish.”

The two Par 5’s on the course, No. 5 and No. 15, are where players need to take advantage of scoring opportunities. These holes both played under par last year with just seventeen bogeys being made on No. 5 throughout the entire tournament.

No. 5, 529 yards, Par 5: “The first par five of the course is easily reachable in two shots. However, a deep hollow running diagonally across the putting surface will make getting up and down for birdie a challenge. The key to this hole is finding a level lie in the well-undulating fairway. Any shot hit short of this green will roll well back down the fairway.”

No. 15, 545 yards, Par 5: “The ideal tee shot to this reachable par five is directly at the fairway bunker. The downhill tee shot must avoid the “sheeps” fescue grass to the right and just over the bunker. Deep bunkers surround this undulating green. The far back right corner pin is the most difficult location, especially if going for the green in two.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 2, 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• 3-Putt Avoidance
• Birdies or Better
• Driving Accuracy
• Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 (x8)
• Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 (x23)
• Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Wyndham Championship. The Wyndham Championship has eight sponsor exemptions, and the top four finishers in the qualifying tournament. Only four of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Sungjae Im (+1600), enters the week off a top-20 finish at the Open Championship. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season but has won on the Korean Tour at the Woori Financial Group Championship. Im has some strong course history at Sedgefield Country Club finishing T2, T24, T9, and T6 in his four appearances here.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800), has three top 10 finishes in his last five starts. He hasn’t played all that much on the PGA Tour this season due to an injury. In terms of course history, Hideki has missed the cut in his last two starts at the Wyndham Championship. His best finish at Sedgefield Country Club was T3 back in 2016.

Sam Burns (+2000), lone win on the PGA Tour was at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play when he defeated Cameron Young. However, he hasn’t been playing great as of late missing the cut in two of his last four starts. Burns has only played in this tournament once before finishing T13 in 2020.

Adam Scott (+2200), has played in this event five times before with his best finish coming in 2021 (T2). Outside of that, he hasn’t finished inside the top 60. In his most recent start, he finished T33 at the Open Championship. He currently ranks 80th in the FedEx Cup so he’ll need to have a solid week if he hopes to play in the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Shane Lowry (+2200), struggled at the Open Championship missing the cut. However, before that, he had three consecutive top-20 finishes. Lowry will make his sixth appearance at the Wyndham Championship with his best finish coming in 2017 (T7).

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Jim Herman (’20), JT Poston (’19), Si Woo Kim (’16), Davis Love III (’15), Webb Simpson (’11), and Ryan Moore (’09)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Taylor Montgomery, Luke List, Lee Hodges, Davis Love III, Keith Mitchell

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

	Field Rating: 236	Field Rating: 260	Field Rating: 325	Field Rating: 243	Field Rating: 170
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Sungjae Im	T2	T24	T9	T6
Cameron Davis			T15	T22
Webb Simpson	WD	T7	T3	2	T2
Russell Henley	T5	T7	T9	T31	MC
Denny McCarthy	MC	T15	T9	T22	T36
Billy Horschel	T27		2	T6	T11
Alex Smalley	T13	T29
Si Woo Kim	WD	T2	T3	5	MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	Field Rating: 236	Field Rating: 260	Field Rating: 325	Field Rating: 243	Field Rating: 170
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
J.J. Spaun	MC	MC	MC	T69
Hank Lebioda	MC	MC	T42	MDF
Michael Gligic	T61	T65	T59
Ben Martin	MC	T70	T59
Nick Watney	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
Kramer Hickok	T71	MC	T51	MC
Beau Hossler		T65	MC	MC
Luke Donald	T54	MC	MC	MC	MC
Charley Hoffman	T68		MC	MC
Austin Cook	MC	MC	T74	T72
Adam Schenk	MC	MC	T51	MC	MC
Aaron Baddeley	MC	MC	MC		T24
Michael Kim		T65	MC	MC
Martin Trainer	T68	MC	MC	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Tom Kim (-20)
  • Price: 40-1
• 2021: Kevin Kisner (-15)
  Price: 55-1
• 2020: Jim Herman (-21)
  Price: 600-1
• 2019: J.T. Poston (-22)
  Price: 100-1
• 2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21)
  Price: 28-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Tom Kim
  • 7 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
  • T26 – 3M Open (PGA)
  • T47 – The Open Championship (PGA)
  • 3 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
  • 23 – U.S. Open (MAJ)

• 2021: Kevin Kisner
  • 63 – WGC-FedEx. St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
  • 73 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T8 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
  • T5 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
  • T55 – U.S. Open (MAJ)

• 2020: Jim Herman
  • T77 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
  • MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • MC – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
  • T33 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)

• 2019: J.T. Poston
  • T29 – Barbasol Championship (PGA)
  • MC – John Deere Classic (PGA)
  • T11 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
  • MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
  • T52 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)

• 2018: Brandt Snedeker
  • T42 – PGA Championship (PGA)
  • T8 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
  • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T3 – A Military Tribute (PGA)
  • MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last Starts at Event):

• 2022: Tom Kim
  • First Time at Event

• 2021: Kevin Kisner
  • 2020 – T3
  • 2017 – T42
  • 2016 – T10
  • 2014 – T8
  • 2012 – T46
  • 2011 – T59
• 2020: Jim Herman
  • 2015 – T18
  • 2014 – MC
  • 2013 – T11
  • 2011 – T59
• 2019: J.T. Poston
  • 2018 – MC
  • 2017 – T50
• 2018: Brandt Snedeker
  • 2016 – T3
  • 2015 – T43
  • 2014 – T5
  • 2013 – MC
  • 2012 – T28
  • 2011 – MC
  • 2010 – T8
  • 2009 – T5
  • 2008 – T69
  • 2007 – 1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Sam Burns (+2800) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units

• Shane Lowry (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Alex Smalley (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

• Cameron Davis (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

• Chris Kirk (+5000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.06 Units 

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Denny McCarthy (+110) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

• J.T. Poston (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Ben Griffin (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Adam Schenk (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Wyndham Championship: 5.06 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.