Collin Morikawa made a late Sunday run at his home course to finish one behind Rory McIlroy who captures the title. We now head to Japan for the Zozo Championship in a weaker field that features a similar set up. This week also only has a field of 78 golfers and a no cut format. The 2020 Zozo Championship was played at Sherwood Country Club in Los Angeles last year due to COVID-19 protocols but, is now back in it’s inaugural spot at Narashino Country Club. We’ll scrap the 2020 data from the Zozo Championship, and look at the 2019 Zozo when it was last hosted at this course. One thing to keep in mind, Xander Schauffele recently won a gold for the US Olympic team in Japan a little over two months ago. Xander and Collin are the current favorites to win the tournament at the 6-7/1 range behind Hideki Matsuyama who is from Japan.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: October 21, 2021- October 24, 2021
- Location: Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
- Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
- Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,041 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 78 Players | No cut
- Greens: : Bentgrass
- Fairways: Zoysiagrass
- Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″
- Stimpmeter: 10.5 feet
- Purse: $9,950,000 / Winner $1.791 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Water Hazards: : 4
- Scoring Average:
- 2019: 69.53 (-0.48)
Course History:
The inaugural Zozo Championship was played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club back in 2019. However, due to COVID-19 travel protocols the tournament was played at Sherwood Country Club in 2020. Now with reduced travel protocols, the tournament resumes at its original location.
Course Guide:
Looking at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club its a short Par 70 course that features Zoysiagrass fairways and rough. This is a rarity on the PGA Tour that only a select few courses feature including TPC Southwind and East Lake. This course, also features the traditional Japanese set up of dual greens. Narashino Country Club has four Par 3’s, all under 200 yards, with the longest playing 183 (Hole #16). We also only have three Par 5’s this week, all which are relatively long, but should present much needed birdie opportunities as we saw in 2019. The ten Par 4’s are all long, and should be a challenge for most players. They all have tree lined fairways, and reward long hitters off the tee. Even though this course is short, it is a tough course and was one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour in 2019. We may not see another -19 as we did when Tiger won it back then, however, off the tee stokes will still play a huge role in this weeks tournament.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Kinya Fujita (1976)
- Renovations: PGA Renovations (2016-2019)
- Comparable Courses:
- Kasumigaseki CC
- Sheshan International GC
- Nine Bridges
- Round 1: Thursday, October 21, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 11:30 PM – 2:30 AM ET
- Round 2: Friday, October 22, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 11:30 PM – 2:30 AM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, October 23, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 11:30 PM – 2:45 AM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, October 23, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 11:30 PM – 2:45 AM ET
- Thursday: Partly Cloudy 61 F, 9 mp/h W, 43% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 60 F, 10 mp/h WSW, 57% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 59 F, 10 mp/h SSW, 70% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 57 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 74% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gaines: Off the Tee
- Stokes Gaines: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Greens in Regulation Percentage
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2020 @ Sherwood Country Club: Patrick Cantlay (-23)
- Price: 28-1
- 2019 @ Narashino Country Club : Tiger Woods (-19)
- Price: 33-1
Picks (Outright):
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)- Draftkings
- Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Hideki Matsuyama heads back home to his native country, where he’s recently coming off a T4 finish in the Summer Olympics, which was in Japan. In the 2019 Zozo Championship, which was in Japan at this course, he finished 2nd to Tiger Woods. He’s in decent form as of late with his best finish coming back at the Fortinet Championship, T6, during the fall season. This pick, is mainly looking at his recent form in Japan, against a limited field. Yes, he did lose to Xander in the Olympics, but I can’t pick Xander this week at +700. Even though he thrives in these no cut events, I don’t see him repeating his performance from the Olympics. At 14-1, Hideki has some value here.
- Jhonattan Vegas (+3500)- Cesars/ Pointsbet
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
See below for reasoning.
- C.T Pan (+4100)- FanDuel
- Risk 0.20 to win 8.20 Units
C.T. Pan has actually been in great form as of recent. On top of that, he finished 3rd in the Olympics and clearly feels comfortable on this style of course. His most recent performance was at the Sanderson where he finished T11, and before that, he finished T6 at the Fortinet Championship. This season, he’s 6th in SG: Total, 11th in SG: Approach the Green, and 12th in SG: Putting. At 41-1, in form, and on a style of course he’s excelled at in the recent past, he’s worth a shot here.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.01 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Scott Vincent (+300)- FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.50 Units
Shoutout to @GolfKneeknocker on Twitter for this play. Scott Vincent finished T16 in the Olympics, and plays on the Japanese Golf Tour. In his last 8 tournaments on the Japanese Tour, he hasn’t finished worse than T17. During that run, he also won two tournaments including the ANA Open and the Sansan KBC Augusta. Obviously these events have weaken fields but, I’m relying on his familiarity with the Japanese style of courses for this pick.
Total Risk on Top 20: 0.50 Units
Total Risk on Zozo Championship: 1.51 Units
1 & Done Pool:
This is a relatively new venture that I’ve gotten myself into but, I couldn’t love it more. I know these survivor pools are big in the NFL, but in golf it’s completely different. In a upcoming blog, I’ll explain on how to approach the upcoming PGA season with the strategy I use and how to capitalize on certain events. Golf betting can be very profitable if you stick to a model and understand the players itself. It’s not something you can learn overnight but, is relatively easier to pick up on as courses have certain giveaways and, players have strengths.
PICK FOR ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: JHONATTAN VEGAS
Last weeks pick was Collin Morikawa who finished 2nd, and you may ask, “Hey why did you use such a big name early?” Well, to answer the question, it was his home course, and as I explain later, in loaded fields, you do have to use bigger names. Will I love Collin in a tournament during the spring season? Of course, he’s one of the best, if not the best golfer on the planet currently. However, to get a second place finish out of him, I cant complain.
Moving onto this week, we look at Jhonattan Vegas. We have a limited field, again like the CJ Cup, and I don’t want to use two major names back to back. Hideki is my best bet this week, but, I cant risk giving him up this early. Jhonattan Vegas represented Venezuela in the Summer Olympics earlier this year and finished T16 against a better field. In the recent tournaments, he has also played extremely well in the last few tournaments ranking Top 10 in key categories this week. He most recently finished T14 at the CJ Cup last week, in a limited field and no cut event, I like him to perform well again here. The one and done strategy is trying to give yourself the best chance, but also roster management and finding value in smaller events. The second option this week as C.T. Pan.
Used Golfers:
- CJ Cup:
- Collin Morikawa 2: $1,053,00
- Shriners Children Open:
- No Pick: Forgot
- Sanderson Farms:
- Denny McCarthy T17: $86, 683
- Fortinet Championship:
- No Pick
Current Position: 7th ($1,139,683), 1st place is at $1,655,669
To follow all my one and done results, check out @ThePluggedLie on Twitter for updates.
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
