Here we go with the final leg of the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. The race has been moved to the “Spa” Saratoga raceway with Belmont still being under construction. This has changed the race to now being run at 1 1/4 miles versus the usual 1 1/2 mile affair. TV will be aired all day on FS1 and Fox which means we should get to see our buddy Chris “The Bear” Fallica on the broadcast. It looks like the weather should hold up tomorrow as rain chances are down to 25%, and hopefully they can keep this track in good condition if a storm does pop up during the afternoon.
Let’s take a look at the field.
1 Seize The Grey – D Wayne Lukas look to capture a third straight win with Preakness and Pat Day mile winner Seize the Grey. This horse got a nice trip in the Preakness out in front without much of a challenge from the other speed in the race. Got the drop on everyone and Mystik Dan couldn’t quite reel him in on that wet track. I don’t think the other speed in the Belmont is going to let him go solo to the lead in this contest, and I am concerned with the extra burst he’ll need to stay near the lead that he won’t hold up this time. If you watch the end of the Preakness he was certainly tiring as he drifted to the outside.
2 Resilience – This horse won his final Derby prep at the Wood Memorial where he added blinkers and put up a solid victory from just off the pace. In the Derby he made a strong move out wide from mid pack to get just off the lead coming around the turn before fading in the stretch. Bill Mott knows if this horse can get a clear inside run with a little less traffic this horse is good enough to make a move near the stretch. My only concern here is the distance after watching the fade in the Derby.
3 Mystik Dan – The Kentucky Derby winner has the most consistent record of high end speed ratings in the three year old season alongside the favorite Sierra Leone. For some reason he just couldn’t get the kick needed to track down Seize The Grey. The fact that this horse is running in this race after losing the Preakness tells me he’s in good form right now and ready to go as usually Derby winners and Preakness losers skip the Belmont. I believe he’ll be game in this race tucked in just behind the leaders and next to the 2 Resilience second off the rail. No reason to think he won’t be around the front coming toward the end.
4 The Wine Steward – This horse didn’t run any races in 2024 until the G3 Lexington in April where he put up a very fast rating losing to Encino by a length. He was one of three horses in the Belmont that ran in the G3 Peter Pan Stakes on May 11th and finished second fading in the stretch run. This will be the first time he stretches out to 10 Furlongs however and has won 3 races at 6F while coming in second in everything he has run over a mile so I don’t think this distance with the speed that will be out front sets up well for him.
5 Antiquarian – This is the horse that beat The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan. While showing well in that race he was no match in the stretch at the Louisiana Derby against some Kentucky Derby runners. That being said he had some issues in the gate at the LA Derby and maybe that cost him some during the race. I think the distance sets up much better for him than The Wine Steward and maybe if he can stay away from a really wide final turn he’ll have something left in the stretch run.
6 Dornoch – After beating Sierra Leone in December and a stellar start to his Derby prep season winning the Fountain of Youth, this horse has taken a step backwards in his last two contests. He is going to have two friends keeping him company at the front out the gate and Dornoch hasn’t won a race where he hasn’t been on the lead after the first 1/4 mile. I think the extra speed up front is going to cause an issue for him again unless he can get completely clear.
7 Protective – This horse has hit the board in his last two showings finishing third in the Peter Pan losing to Antiquarian, and third in the Wood Memorial losing to Resilience. In the Peter Pan he couldn’t get clear in the stretch or I think he could have won that race. He would need to take a step forward here to earn a victory, but I think the added distance could actually help him. At current prices I may mix him in on some exotics.
8 Honor Marie – Having not won since the two year old season Honor Marie will get a new jockey in Florent Geroux looking to improve on a disappointing Derby run. He got bumped hard coming out of the gate there and then couldn’t really get going until near the mid backstretch. Once able to run he had a nice showing, but certainly couldn’t recover. My major issue is I don’t think I this horse has improved much over the last five races and will certainly need to if he wants to win the Belmont.
9 Sierra Leone – The favorite for a reason. The winner of the Risen Star and The Bluegrass has only been beaten twice by a nose and both those horses are in this field. He couldn’t quite track down Mystik Dan in the Derby, but should have less issue with traffic here. Chad Brown is trying a new bit in this race to see if he can straighten him out in the stretch run as well.
10 Mindframe – This horse made me some money on Derby weekend and certainly has the talent to compete here. He has only run twice so far and both came against weak fields, but he didn’t mess around in either race winning them by over a combined 20 lengths. This will be his first time stretching out to this distance and first time facing real competition and early pace along side him.
The Race – Look for three horses to break early. The 1 Seize The Grey, 6 Dornoch, and 10 Mindframe should all be breaking for the lead. Mindframe should have plenty of time to get there from the outside with the whole front stretch before the first turn and that should help him, but he will likely be three wide hitting the first turn. I don’t think the 2 Resilience and 3 Mystik Dan will pull back too far and they should setup in the stalking group on the inside with the 4 The Wine Steward and the 5 Antiquarian. The wild card for me will be the 7 Protective who while sitting in stalking/closing position in most races has yet to win. I am curious if they’ll try and keep him tight to the 2 and 3 here instead of falling in behind that group. He closed 4 lengths on Resilience in the Wood Memorial in the final 1/4 mile so it’s possible he’ll challenge more early knowing there are stronger closers behind him in the 8 Honor Marie and 9 Sierra Leone. If the pace comes off as hot as advertised I think it spells trouble for all three horses at the front. With less traffic to worry about than the Kentucky Derby the strong horses sitting just off the pace should have the advantage as they get into the far turn and should reel them in, and I expect Mystik Dan and Resilience to pull up to them before they hit the stretch. It’s possible one of the leaders will have enough left to hang on getting onto the stretch, but I am not betting it that way. I think we’ll see 5 or 6 horses wide as they turn for home with Sierra Leone and Honor Marie either cutting through or making a wide bid for the lead. I think this race sets up better for the closers and stalkers and Honor Marie isn’t any match for Sierra Leone as a closer. Look for Sierra Leone to get the Triple Crown victory in this one.
Expected Finish Order – 9,2,3,10,7,5,8,4,1,6
My Bets
To Win – 9 Sierra Leone
Exacta – 9 Sierra Leone / 2 Resilience, 3 Mystik Dan, 10 Mindframe
Favorite Horse of the Weekend – Race 6 Suburban Stakes – 8 Bendoog – Something happened with the horse the last two races, if he improves again he’ll blow away this field, but he doesn’t need to improve to win. Single him up in some doubles and Pick 3s and try and make some money to invest in the Belmont.
