2024 Valero Texas Open Preview & Picks

Tournament Information:

• Dates: April 4th, 2024 – April 7th, 2024
• Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
• Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
• Course Type: Texas/Southwest
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,438 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Champion Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed .110”
• Fairways: Perennial rye / fescue .400”
• Rough: Perennial rye / fescue 2.25”
• Bunkers: 64
• Water Hazard(s): 3 (In-Play on 3 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $9,200,000 /$1,656,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 156 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden-Death (18 repeat)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 72.09 (+0.09), Rank 15 of 49
  • 2022: 71.76 (-0.24), Rank 18 of 50
  • 2021: 72.48 (+0.48), Rank 15 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: E
  • 2022: -1
  • 2021: +2

Comparable Courses & Greens:

Course/ Tournament History:

• Most Tournament Wins (Event):
  • 3, Arnold Palmer (1960, 1961, 1962) & Justin Leonard (2000, 2001, 2007)
• 72-Hole Record (Event):
  • 254, Tommy Armour III (2003 at La Cantera)
• 72-Hole Record (TPC San Antonio):
  • 268, Corey Conners (2019)
• 18-Hole Record (Event):
  • 60, Bart Bryant (Round 3, 2004 at La Cantera), Zach Johnson (Round 3, 2009 at La Cantera)
• 18-Hole Record (TPC San Antonio):
  • 62, Trey Mullinax (3rd round, 2018)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally crafted by Greg Norman in 2010, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio features a traditional Par 72 layout, comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.

TPC San Antonio is highly susceptible to winds, posing a significant challenge for approach shots.

The four Par 3’s range between 171 yards and 241 yards. In 2023, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par except for No. 16.

No. 3, 171 yards, Par 3: “Welcome to the first par 3 on The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio. This 213 yard beauty is one of only two holes on the course which require carry over water. This hole is not for the faint of heart. A confident swing is required with a medium or long iron to carry the water and reach the green. The only miss for the player on this hole is long. It is a must for players to land their tee shot on the appropriate level of the green. Players who find themselves on the opposite side of the pin, will have to summon their best touch to avoid a three putt. Once again, par is a good score here.”

No. 16, 183 yards, Par 3: “Arguably and soon to be known as one of the most unique par 3’s in golf, the short 16th hole features a creative green defined by beautiful bunkers on both sides and the unique feature of a bunker in the center which divides the green into 3 smaller targets. An assortment of teeing areas offer the player, not only different yardages, but different angles into the green. Put it on the right spot of green and birdie or par is almost a certainty. Put it on the wrong side of the bunker and anything goes.”

There are ten Par 4’s on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. No. 17 is the shortest listed at 347 yards with the longest being No. 4, playing 481 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 4 (+0.246).

No. 4, 481 yards, Par 4: “Hole #4 on the The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio is possibly the most difficult par 4 on the front 9. This hole was the first hole to be grassed during construction and has a stately and majestic feel about it. The tee shot requires power and precision as the fairway is one of the narrowest on the course. Finding the fairway is a must. A well struck tee shot leaves the player with a long iron or fairway wood second shot to a beautiful but devilish green. This green site is one of the most picturesque on The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio with old gnarly oak trees clearly evident around it, along with the artistic bunkers featuring a rock out cropping along the back edge. This green has significant movement in it and two putts for the player will be considered a success. Par on this hole is like a birdie.”

No. 11, 405 yards, Par 4: “The eleventh is one of the most striking holes on the The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio. Players face a decision off the tee, to challenge the cross bunker which requires a 220 yard carry from the back tee or play safely laying up short of the bunker. This hole rewards heroism because a great tee shot leaves only a short pitch to the green. A short drive on the right side means carrying a deep greenside bunker on the approach. Once on the green, the player’s work is not done. The green features some interesting pitch and roll to catch your attention. The player may be rewarded with a birdie for playing aggressively.”

No. 12, 410 yards, Par 4: “The 12th hole is short, but dangerous. The player may choose any club off the tee. The key is being straight and in the fairway. Playing from the rough will almost assure the player a bogey. The second shot will only be a short iron but is played uphill and downwind to an elevated green protected by a set of enormous twin bunkers which are the deepest on the golf course. The green, while quite large is segregated into several levels which forces the player to have precise control with the second shot. Believe it or not the best miss on this hole is long, leaving the player a simple chip back. Miss it short, right or left, and you will be busy. It’s only 410 from the back tee, but 4 is a great score.”

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 2, No. 8, No. 14 and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2022. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 14 with a scoring average of 4.648.

No. 8, 604 yards, Par 5: “The second Par 5 on the front nine is the exact opposite of its neighboring Par 5 Hole #2. This hole plays uphill and downwind, stretching more than 600 yards in length from the back tees. Try to avoid the left side off the tee and the beautiful specimen Oak that was transplanted to this hole from the 14th. A good tee shot will find the player at the crest of the hill. The second shot can be anything from a mid-iron to a fairway wood, depending on your preferred approach shot. It is vital the player’s second shot ends up in the fairway, allowing for a controlled approach to this split level, heavily contoured and well protected green. Finding the right level on the green is important to ensure you don’t spend too much time putting around.”

No. 18, 591 yards, Par 5: “A fantastic final hole for our fantastic finish. The 18th hole is a long, uphill par 5. The tee shot should be shaped left to right in order to remain in a fairway sloping from right to left. After the tee shot, players should play up the right side, being cautious to avoid the creek which bisects the fairway and the spectacular bunkers on the right. The third shot will be played with a short iron uphill to a green which is segregated into 3 levels and is well protected by a hill country creek and three bunkers. Players may have visions of making a final birdie to win the Valero Texas Open on this one.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16-18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Four of the past five winners ranked 4th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio are Champion Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed .110”.

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the ten Par 4’s on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio range between 400-450 Yards.

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)/ 600-650 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 5’s on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio range between 550-600 Yards. The other two Par 5’s range between 600-650 Yards.

• Proximity Gained: 75-100 yards/ 200+Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 75-100 Yard/ 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, a good course history is very indicative of success at TPC San Antonio.

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Valero Texas Open. Nine of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Rory McIlroy (+900)

Ludvig Aberg (+1100)

Jordan Spieth (+1800)

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)

Max Homa (+2000)

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Corey Conners (’23, ’19), J.J. Spaun (’22), Jodan Spieth (’21), Andrew Landry (’18), Kevin Chappell (’17), Charley Hoffman (’16), Jimmy Walker (’15), Martin Laird (’13), Adam Scott (’10), Zach Johnson (’09, ’08)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Ben Willman, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Christopher Gotterup, Collin Morikawa, Davis Thompson, Erik Barnes, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Joe Sullivan, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Yu, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Max Greyserman, Norman Xiong, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Philip Knowles, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Thorbjorn Olesen, Tom Kim, Tom Whitney, Tommy Fleetwood, Trace Crowe, Tyson Alexander, Victor Perez, Webb Simpson, Wilson Furr

• Players with Texas ties in the Field:
  • Birthplace:
    • Bronson Burgoon – The Woodlands, Texas
    • Pierceson Coody – Plano, Texas
    • Parker Coody – Plano, Texas
    • Blaine Hale Jr. – Dallas, Texas
    • Ryan Palmer – Amarillo, Texas
    • Chandler Phillips – Huntsville, Texas

• • College:
    • Paul Barjon – TCU
    • Bronson Burgoon – Texas A&M
    • Cameron Champ – Texas A&M
    • Pierceson Coody – Texas
    • Parker Coody – Texas
    • Doug Ghim – Texas
    • Beau Hossler – Texas
    • Mac Meissner – SMU
    • Ryan Palmer – Texas A&M
    • Chandler Phillips – Texas A&M
    • Roger Sloan – UTEP
    • Hayden Springer – Texas Tech
    • Jhonattan Vegas – Texas
    • Jimmy Walker – Baylor

• Injury Report:

PGA Tour Injury Report | 2024 Valero Texas Open

Sponsored By @NUCLRGOLF

Full Details -> https://t.co/j0Zx5QuSo1 (Free Trial)@valerotxopen #ValeroTexasOpen

1) Tom Kim Q (illness)
2) Hideki Matsuyama P (Back/Neck)
3) Andrew Landry Q (Wrist)
4) Maverick McNealy P (Shoulder)
5)… pic.twitter.com/mr77r9YDRD

— Golf Injury Report (@InjuryReportPGA) April 2, 2024

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • OUT: Matt Wallace -> IN: Trace Crowe
  • OUT: Scott Stallings -> IN: Blaine Hale Jr.
  • OUT: Stephan Jaegar -> IN: Bronson Burgoon
  • OUT: Thomas Detry -> IN: Erik Barners

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 271.5/ -16.5 (Over -110/ Under -110)

In three of the last five editions of the Valero Texas Open, the winning score has been below 271.5 (-16.5). However, in the two most recent editions of this event, the winning score has been above 271.5.

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +300/ No -400)

There has not been a playoff at the Valero Texas Open since 2009 when Zach Johnson defeated James Driscoll. Four of the past five winners of this tournament have won by two strokes or more.

To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.

Horses for Courses

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Corey Conners (-15)
  • Price: 20-1

• 2022: J.J. Spaun (-13)
  • Price: 200-1

• 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
  • Price: 16-1

• 2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A

• 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
  • Price: 200-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Corey Conners
  • T17 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T21 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • 61 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T50 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)

• 2022: J.J. Spaun
  • T27 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T52 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • T30 – The Honda Classic (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)

• 2021: Jordan Spieth
  • T9 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • T48 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T4 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • T15 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T3 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)

• 2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic

• 2019: Corey Conners
  • MC – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (PGA)
  • T41 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – Puerto Rico Open (PGA)
  • MC – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Corey Conners

2022: J.J. Spaun

2021: Jordan Spieth

2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic

2019: Corey Conners

Picks (Outrights):

• Alex Noren (+3300) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Byeong-Hun An (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Harris English (+4000) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

• Maverick McNealy (+6600) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.99 Units

Picks (Top 20):

• Corey Conners (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Billy Horschel (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

• Andrew Novak (+130) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

• Matti Schmid (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk on the Valero Texas Open: 4.99 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.