Advanced stats haven’t meant a ton this season, especially lately. So let’s look at some of the situational spots and see if we can find some value.
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-225) 1:40 pm ET
This is a pretty straight forward game. The Guardians are starting opener Brian Shaw, where as the Rays are sending out their ace and AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan. Cleveland has the 9th best pen in the majors so far this year, but it hasn’t turned into wins for them.
McClanahan is 3-1 on the F5 run line in July. He’s getting pretty good run support as well over the past 4 starts as the Rays are giving him 2.75 runs on average in the first 5 innings.
The Guardians should send out a similar lineup as yesterday’s losing effort. Corey Kluber got through the first 5 innings only giving up 1 run. The Rays gave him 5 runs of support during that time frame as well. I expect a similar game here out of McClanahan in his second start after the All Star break. In his first start out he limited Baltimore to 2 runs in the first 5 innings and ended up going 7.
The Guardians have also struggled on the season against lefties.
Take the Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5 -145 1U
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-185) 7:08 pm ET
The Chicago Cubs are sending out Adrian Sampson in tonight’s game. The Giants are countering with Carlos Rodon.
Most of Sampson’s starts have come at home. In his two road starts this year against St Louis and Milwaukee he gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings. In his past two starts against the Mets and Pirates he’s only given up 2 runs in each of those games. I think he can repeat that effort here against a Giants offense that has been pretty meek this year. The Giants are also without Joc Pederson who provided most of their power this season.
Carlos Rodon has been much better at home (2.05 ERA) than on the road (3.88 ERA). He has struggled in his last 2 starts agains the Dodgers and Diamondbacks giving up 5 runs in each of those games. However, those starts were both on the road. His last home start against Milwaukee was a good one. He went 5 innings giving up 1 run on 8 hits. I expect him to bounce back here in this spot.
I expect this game to play like the first game in the series where Stroman started for the Cubs and Cobb went for the Giants. That game saw 1 run in the first 5 innings.
Expect a low scoring affair here and Take F5 U4 -120 1U
