The AFC East – This conference has been terrible for years with the exception of the New England Patriots feasting on the woes of the Jets, Dolphins and Bills. I compare this division to the NBA Eastern conference when Lebron was playing for the Heat and the Cavs. I actually think that this division may have improved and we shall break it down. The AFC East plays the AFC North which benefits playing the Bengals and the NFC East which benefits by playing the Giants and the Redskins.
- New England Patriots – Vegas Win Total 11
Schedule – Easy – At large games vs Houston and Kansas City
Key losses: TE Rob Gronkowski, DE Trey Flowers, OT Trent Brown, DT Malcom Brown, WR Chris Hogan, DE Adrian Clayborn, WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Dwayne Allen, CB Eric Rowe, RT LaAdrian Waddle
Key additions: DE Michael Bennett, DE Mike Pennel, TE Matt LaCosse, WR Maurice Harris, WR Bruce Ellington, RB Brandon Bolden, S Terrence Brooks
Whom they drafted: WR N’Keal Harry, CB Joejuan Williams, DE Chase Winovich, RB Damien Harris, OT Yodny Cajuste, G Hjalte Froholdt, QB Jarrett Stidham, DT Byron Cowart, P Jake Bailey, CB Ken Webster
Summary: The only reason the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the league is because they don’t have to play themselves and they are in the AFC East. The Patriots lose a ton of production this year but that is par for the course for them. With Brady and Belicheck they always find a way. N’Keal Harry is an interesting pick and before his poor performance at the combine, he was stated as maybe the best wide receiver in the Draft. I do not like losing Tre Flowers, Trent Brown and especially Rob Gronkowski but what do I know? Stidham is a Jimmy Garoppolo-like stash behind Brady. Cajuste and Froholdt are strong offensive line contingencies from the draft. I have this team at 10.2 wins so I have to lean under but I would not touch that with your money.
Summary: Lean Under
2. Miami Dolphins – Vegas Win Total 5
Schedule – Hard – At large vs Indianapolis and LA Chargers
Key losses: Coach Adam Gase, QB Ryan Tannehill, RT Ja’Wuan James, DE Cameron Wake, RB Frank Gore, WR Danny Amendola, DE William Hayes, DE Andre Branch, G Josh Sitton, G Ted Larsen
Key additions: Coach Brian Flores – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB Josh Rosen, TE Dwayne Allen, CB Eric Rowe, TE Clive Walford
Whom they drafted: DT Christian Wilkins, G Michael Deiter, OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, OT Isaiah Prince, RB Chandler Cox, RB Myles Gaskin
Summary: I am not sure there is a worse organization in the NFL than the Miami Dolphins. Hold my beer Cleveland! By an act of God, Adam Gase got this team to 7 wins the last few years with absolutely nothing to work with to only get fired at the end of the season. Miami has one of the hardest schedules in football and the AFC East has improved dramatically. This team lost a bunch of players including their Quarterback Ryan Tannahill. For this year the Fish pick up Fitzmagic who is only good as a backup as we have all seen before. They overpaid for Josh Rosen who isn’t proven yet in my mind and had a terrible year with the Cardinals. The only Free Agent that is worth a damn who they have picked up is TE Dwayne Allen. I do like their draft pick of DT Christian Wilkins and Edge Rusher Andrew Van Ginkle could have been a steal, but this team will be striving to even get 3 wins this year. If I could take a prop on them going 0-16 that is better than 10-1 I just might do that. If not I may do a fade Moneyline Rollover on them meaning I bet the other team for the win every game while rolling over the winnings. This team will be the sorriest team in the NFL this season and my number looking at their brutal at large schedule is 2.05 wins.
Summary: Under 5
3. Buffalo Bills – Vegas Win Total 7
Schedule – Easy – At large vs Denver and Tennessee
Key losses: G John Miller, TE Charles Clay, TE Logan Thomas
Key additions: RB Frank Gore, C Mitch Morse, WR John Brown, WR Cole Beasley, TE Tyler Kroft, G Spencer Long, OT Ty Nsehke, WR/KR Andre Roberts, CB Kevin Johnson, OT LaAdrian Waddle, TE/OT Jake Fisher
Whom they drafted: DT Ed Oliver, G Cody Ford, RB Devin Singletary, TE Dawson Knox, OLB Vosean Joseph, S Jaquan Johnson, DE Darryl Johnson, TE Tommy Sweeney
Summary: This Bills team really didn’t lose anybody which I like. I was also somewhat wrong so far on QB Josh Allen. Sure he isn’t that accurate but he can really run the ball when needed and make smart decisions getting to the ground. I love that they picked up John Brown and Cole Beasley to help the passing game. I also like how they helped their Offensive line in the draft and in free agency. GM Brandon Beane drafting Oliver and Ford was very smart in my opinion. Ed Oliver is a beast and can be huge for this D line as a 5 technique. Tight ends Knox and Sweeney improve the security-blanket options for Josh Allen. The only thing that Buffalo missed out on is Edge rusher but they covered a ton of holes. My number is 8.3 so only a lean but I like what they are doing.
Action – Lean Over
4. New York Jets – Vegas Win Total – 7
Schedule – Easy – At large games vs Oakland and Jacksonville
Key losses: CB Morris Claiborne, QB Josh McCown, WR Jermaine Kearse, G James Carpenter, CB Buster Skrine, K Jason Myers, RB Isaiah Crowell, RB Bilal Powell, C/G Spencer Long, DE Mike Pennel, OLB Emmanuel Lamur, WR/KR Andre Roberts, S Terrence Brooks, TE Clive Walford
Key additions: RB Le’Veon Bell, ILB C.J. Mosley, G Kelechi Osemele, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Josh Bellamy, G Tom Compton, QB Trevor Siemian, K Chandler Catanzaro, CB Brian Poole
Whom they drafted: DT Quinnen Williams, OLB Jachai Polite, OT Chuma Edoga, TE Trevon Wesco, OLB Blake Cashman, CB Blessuan Austin
Summary: The Biggest pick up for the Jets this year isn’t Laveon Bell, it’s Adam Gase. Hire a great coach within your division with a chip on his shoulder. Fantastic move and I absolutely love this. Adam Gase is the Quarterback whisperer and will be able to get the best out of Sam Darnold. The Jets lost a bunch of guys but they were mostly no names. I love that they picked up CJ Mosely, Tom Compton, Kelechi Osemele. Bell is an upgrade over Crowell but a bit of a head case. Either way this team really improved as far as I’m concerned and i love their easier schedule however, they do go through a gauntlet of tough teams after their first game vs the Bills. The Jets play the Browns whom everyone is high on, the Patriots, the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Patriots again then at Jacksonville. I think it would be huge if they can get 2 wins during those 6 games. I have their number at 6.9 wins with some upside. I think this team could be better than 7 wins but my number keeps me off of it. Before seeing this high win total on the Jets, I was thinking in my mind to take the over but apparently Vegas agrees with me (or I agree with Vegas :-)).
Action – Lean over
