The AFC South did well last having 2 teams in the playoffs. This division plays the NFC South and the AFC West. Facing these two divisions is looked at as pretty hard due to the fact that the AFC West was so strong last year with Kansas City and San Diego winning 12 or more games, and the NFC South this year has some higher Vegas win totals. Tampa Bay and Oakland should be the easier teams to face but we have to think that both of those teams have improved some.
- Houston Texans – Vegas win total – 8.5
Schedule – Hardest! – At large games vs New England and Baltimore
Key losses: S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Kareem Jackson, CB Kevin Johnson, OT Kendall Lamm, DT Christian Covington, WR Demaryius Thomas, CB Kayvon Webster, CB Shareece Wright, RB Alfred Blue, ILB Brian Peters
Key additions: S Tashaun Gipson, CB Bradley Roby, QB AJ McCarron, TE Darren Fells, CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun, LT Matt Kalil
Whom they drafted: OT Tytus Howard, CB Lonnie Johnson, OT Max Scharping, TE Kahale Warring, DE Charles Omenihu, CB Xavier Crawford, RB Cullen Gillespie
Summery: I have a question. How is this team going to match 11 wins from last year when Houston is going from the 3rd easiest schedule in 2018 to the Hardest schedule in 2019? GM Brian Gaine had two missions in the draft. Get good offensive tackles and replenish the secondary depth. Both were somewhat accomplished. I am not that big of a fan of some of the reaches that they made in this 2019 class. The biggest issue with this team is that they go from the 3rd easiest schedule to the hardest schedule in all of football. The only position that really has gotten better is the offensive line with the addition of Matt Kalil and draft pick of Tyus Howard. Otherwise, this team lost a lot of production on defense and will feel it during this difficult schedule. Will DeShawn Watson stay healthy this year? He certainly took a lot of hits last year and it was by far more than any other quarterback. The Texans offense led the league in allowing QB sacks per game at 3.8. This team also benefited immensely from having a second best in the league +13 turnover margin. I do not like the Texans chances this year in this difficult division but we all know that DeShawn Watson and JJ Watt can fire up this team. I have this at 7.65 wins and lean to the under.
Action: Lean Under
2. Indianapolis Colts – Vegas Win total – 9.5
Schedule – Medium Easy – At large games vs Miami and Pittsburgh
Key losses: WR Ryan Grant, WR Dontrelle Inman, TE Erik Swoope, WR Zach Pascal
Key additions: DE Justin Houston, WR Devin Funchess
Whom they drafted: CB Rock Ya-Sin, DE Ben Banogu, WR Parris Campbell, OLB Bobby Okereke, S Khari Willis, S Marvell Tell, ILB E.J. Speed, DE Gerri Green, OT Jackson Barton, C Javon Patterson
Summary: Before the draft I thought that this Colts team was an edge rusher away from winning a Superbowl. Now the Colts nabbed Justin Houston from Kansas City and I think it was YUUUUUUUGE. I have to say that this Colts squad really didn’t lose anybody in my opinion and they really upgraded at Wide Receiver. I am also hearing that Paris Campbell is wowing people in OTAs and may be the biggest steal of the draft. Now the Colts had some big injury woe’s in the beginning of last year but they held on till players got healthy and finished with a bang getting to 10 wins. They did have the easiest schedule in the League, and the fact that Miami is one of their at large games really helps this schedule this year. I think it is a pretty safe bet that this team wins their division and I have them at 11.4 wins which is the Most in the NFL.
Action – Over 9.5 wins and +100 will win the AFC South
3. Tennessee Titans – Vegas Win Total – 8.5
Schedule: Hard – At large games vs Buffalo and Cleveland
Key losses: OC Matt Lefuer, G Josh Kline, G Quinton Spain, OLB Derrick Morgan, S Johnathan
Cyprien, DT Bennie Logan, TE Luke Stocker, QB Blaine Gabbert,
Key additions: G Rodger Saffold, WR Adam Humphries, DE Cameron Wake, QB Ryan Tannehill
Whom they drafted: DT Jeffery Simmons, WR A.J. Brown, G Nate Davis, S Amani Hooker, OLB D’Andre Walker, ILB David Long
Summary: I can make an argument that the Tennessee Titans schedule this year may be the hardest in the league. The Titans at large games are against two very improved teams in Buffalo and Cleveland from last year while playing the Colts and Texans twice certainly doesn’t help. I really do not think this team did much in the off-season. I am not sure if Adam Humphries is good or if he was just open all the time at Tampa Bay. The Titans drafted a little too much for 2020 with Simmons possibly out for the full season due to that ACL injury. Guard Nate Davis was a bit of a reach in my opinion. Getting Brown in the second round gave the usually wise-drafting Jon Robinson some value, but overall, I just do not see many big play makers here. To be honest, I was never sold on Marcus Mariota and now that Matt Lefleur left to the Packers, this team had to promote their tight ends coach Arthur Smith to OC which leaves a huge question mark for next season. My number is 6.95 wins for this team and I am taking the under especially when looking at this schedule.
Action: Under 8.5 wins
4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Vegas win total – 8
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs NY Jets and Cincinnati
Key losses: DT Malik Jackson, RB T.J. Yeldon, RB Carlos Hyde, QB Blake Bortles, WR Donte Moncrief, OT Ereck Flowers, RT Jeremy Parnell, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins,
Key additions: QB Nick Foles, ILB Jake Ryan, TE Geoff Swaim, WR Chris Conley, RB Thomas Rawls, RB Alford Blue
Whom they drafted: DE/OLB Josh Allen, OT Jawaan Taylor, TE Josh Oliver, S Quincy Williams, RB Ryquell Armstead, QB Gardner Minshew, DT Dontavius Russell
Summary: The Jaguars definitely lost a lot in Free Agency this year, and their offensive line will look a little bit different this year, but I have to say, that I really like their draft. Let’s cut to the chase here. This team will go as far as new Quarterback Nick Foles takes them and after a very disappointing 5 wins last year, this team could be in line for some progression. Some of the keys to this season will be how the skill positions shake out with Leonard Fornette’s health with Marquise Lee and Dee Dee Westbrook’s potential of breaking out into 1000 yard plus receivers. Let’s face it, the biggest wins this team had was getting Nick Foles and drafting edge rusher Josh Allen from Kentucky when he fell to 7. Now this is another scenario when Vegas puts the win total at 8 and they only won 5 games telling you that even they expect huge improvement this year. I have my number at 7.1 but I certainly do not want to go against clutch Foles by taking the under.
Action – No Play
