Oakland vs Indianapolis -6.5
I have the Raiders as the second worst defense in the NFL behind the Miami Dolphins. Now they lost Marquell Lee their starting middle linebacker to add to losing Jonathan Abram last week. Indianapolis is a little banged up as well but I think that they still tower over what the Raiders have for talent, even with a few back-ups. Handicappers and sportsbooks are still to low on the Colts thinking that the stop from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett is 6 points. Well I think it is more like 3 or 4. I have the colts by 8.75 in this spot. The Raiders are in serious need of better skill positions on offense. I also am going to make a bold statement here and say that I think even though it’s his second year, Jon Gruden has been out of the NFL too long and things have changed too much for him. Frank Reich is the better coach here.
Indianapolis -6.5 – 2 star play
Tampa Bay vs LA Rams +10
The Rams are a good/great team as we can see here but this isn’t a great spot for them at all. One thing we know about the Tampa D is that their weakness is against the pass as we saw against the Giants but is that what the Rams try to do? The Rams like to play misdirection football and set up the play action through running the ball. They ranked top 5 in rushing attempts in 2018. Tampas run defense is great with Sue and Vita Vea leading that defensive line that currently ranks number 1 in stuff rate and 3 in adjusted line yards. I see the Rams trying to get through this game quickly by running the ball and not running up the score because this is one of those look ahead spots to Thursday vs a huge division foe Seattle. We know that Jamis Winston throws picks but I really like the QB whisperer Bruce Ahiens helping him through and if any team is built for a garbage touchdown to cover the spread it is guys like Winston to Evans or Goddard or even OJ Howard. We also have to remember that the Rams do not have a great home field advantage. This is LA BABY. Due to the spot and the situation i really like Tampa bay here and a small ML play isn’t a bad idea either.
Tampa Bay +10 – 3 star premium play
Dallas vs New Orleans +2.5
My play here doesn’t completely agree with my power ratings, but I am going to bet against the over-reaction to last week here. Dallas has had an easier schedule but they are also very healthy here. Dallas is the second most explosive team in football right now on offense and they have the tools to wear down the Saints in my opinion. The Saints showed that they have a vulnerable defense. They rank 30th in yards per play and I know that they played a very hard schedule but what stuck out to me is that they beat Seattle last week while being out-gained by 250 yards. This is very significant. Dallas beat this Saints team with Breese in last year and I think they have their number. The Teddy Bridgewater situation still hasn’t shown its true colors here and I like the number under 3.
Dallas -2.5 – 2 Star Premium Shared
Quick Hitter: Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh over 43.5 – 2 star premium shared – You have 2 desperate teams here and I do not either defense both ranking in the bottom 25% of all teams. I think we will see some points here.
Teaser: Vikings to +8 and Ravens to -1 – 2 star
