Week 5 NFL Slate with JKSportsBets
I took a much-needed break to settle into the new apartment, and now we’re back with some of my favorite action in week five! It’s hard to believe that as of Monday night we are ¼ of the way through the fantasy season and just about that much through the regular season. We spend so many months waiting and waiting, and then it all goes so quickly!
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 10/06/2019, 10 AM Pacific
We nailed the Cardinals bet last article in Week two, and we’re looking to go two for two here. The Cardinals are decent on the road, having covered in three of their last four. Let’s also not forgot that since their week one performance the Bengals have been dreadful. They’re getting outscored by 17 ppg since week one. And I believe that week one performance was more of a reflection on issues in Seattle that have gone unnoticed rather than the Bengals competing with Russell Wilson. The Bengals’ offensive line is horrid, and they just lost by 24 to a Steelers team led by Mason Rudolph. We saw the Cardinals put up a decent fight against the Ravens in Baltimore, so look for them to outright win here in Cincy. Additionally, both defenses are bad. How bad? The total is at 47. Cincinnati gives up 27.5 points per game this season while Arizona gives up 28.75 points per game this year. If they even hit their averages they’ll go over. Remember when the Bengals gave up 41 to Jimmy G and the Cardinals gave up 38 to Kyle Allen? Arizona can’t seem to stop anyone, especially if you play tight end. The over has hit in five of the last six at home in Cincy. Pound it.
ARI Cardinals ML, (+145), 2u
ARI Cardinals/Cincinnati Bengals OVER 47, (-110), 3u
Chicago Bears “@” Oakland Raiders – Sunday, 10/06/2019, 10 AM Pacific (in London)
The Raiders draw the short end of the stick, using a “home” game across the pond in London. London is full of Bears fans, so I expect them to show up for Chicago. Trubisky is out with a dislocated shoulder, but Chase Daniel is no Blake Bortles. He posted a QBR of 101.4 against a very tough Vikings defense – a passing defense ranked 10th in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed. The Raiders looked mighty impressive in the early going against the Colts, but of their four TDs last week, one was scored on defense and one was scored on a 60-yard run with a hole bigger than a dancing elephant. You won’t find that with Chicago. The Bears have the 4th best rushing defense in the league. You saw it last week with the Vikes. They stopped arguably the hottest runner in the NFL right now in Dalvin Cook and made Kirk Cousins beat them through the air (hint: he didn’t). Don’t tell me Derek Carr is better than Cousins. In London games, the Raiders are 1-3 all-time only covering in their win. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC West. All signs point towards Chi-town. Oh yeah, the Bears are 7-1 to the under in their last eight regular season games to boot.
CHI Bears -5.5, (-110), 3u
CHI Bears/OAK Raiders UNDER 40.5, (-110), 2u
OAK Raiders TT UNDER 17, (-115), 1u
Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers – Monday, 10/07/2019, 5:15 PM Pacific
This is a really interesting spot to me. You have a 3-0 San Francisco team that joins the Chiefs and the Patriots as the last undefeated teams in the league. That’s right, you probably knew already but we’re grouping Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers with Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and those two AFC powers. One look at the Niners’ first three weeks should tell you a lot; they beat the Bengals, the Steelers, and the Bucs. The only team worth a damn there is Tampa, and in week one they clearly were still learning Bruce Arians’ system. Meanwhile, the Browns took a couple weeks but looked damn impressive against the Ravens last week, knocking me out of my survivor pool in the process. Yet they travel to NorCal as 3.5-point dogs? This implies that the game would be a pick ‘em on a neutral site. Not a chance. It takes offenses some time to gel (see the Bucs/Rams game last week for proof), and the Browns are gellin’ like a felon. They’re gellin’ harder than Dr. Scholes. Look for OBJ to get going in this one. Every year in the NHL you can pound against teams that are coming back after their week off. Do you know why? It’s because athletes thrive on consistency. They want a routine. They want to play games, have practices, meals, and workouts at the same times on the same days. When you get extra time off, too much time off, it throws you off your routine. We print money all around the all-star break in the NHL every year so try to follow those trends in the NFL too. SF is coming off a bye all the way into a Monday night game. They will have had 15 days off. Your proof lies in the fact that the Niners have failed to cover in their last SEVEN games after a bye for the last seven years. They’re actually 2-12-1 ATS after a bye since 2004. I love this bet. If I could only make one this week, it would be the Browns ATS.
CLE Browns +3.5, (-110), 3u
CLE Browns ML, (+165), 2u
CLE Browns TT OVER 21.5, (+100), 1u
Fade of the week:
Kansas City, -12.5 – Something feels different about both the Chiefs and the Colts. Everyone expected the Colts to be terrible without Luck, but they’re not. Everyone expected the Chiefs to prove the Lions were a fluke, but they didn’t. Proceed with caution.
Parlay of the week:
BAL ML, CHI ML, NYG/MIN OVER 43.5, TB ML, ATL/HOU OVER 49, LAC ML, CLE ML (+6800)
Follow me on Twitter (@jksportsbets) as in-game plays get released every so often – it just depends on what my Sundays look like! Have fun watching, good vibes for your fantasy teams, and I’ll be back next week.
