Baltimore vs Seattle -3.5 O/U 49
Here is a spot where I believe I am catching a little bit of value. Seattle used to be the best home field in football but my how some things change. Seattle has played 3 home games this year. They struggled to beat Cincinnati and barely won that game by 1 point, they lost outright to a Teddy B led Saints team, and they beat the Rams by 1 point due to a 42 yard missed FG by Legatron. A Brutal 0-3 ATS. Now they face a Baltimore team that hasn’t had that hard of a schedule either but they perform decent on the road. Seattle happens to run the ball a lot but Baltimore’s strength has shown against the run allowing the 8th fewest yards this year. Seattle also lost their insurance playmaker in Will Dissley for the season. Ravens are relatively healthy with Marquis Brown most likely back to strech the field. These 2 teams are pretty equal in yards per play Russell Wilson is the MVP in my opinion this year but I think that the Ravens have a shot to win this game.
Baltimore +3.5 – 2 premium
Kansas City vs Denver +3 O/U 48.5 – Game past but was from Podcast
At what point in the season will you find more value on Kansas City? I don’t know myself because they lost 2 games in a row but they still have most of their skill positions and one of the best QBs in football. Denver has shown very well the last few weeks beating the banged up chargers and a bad Titans team but in reality, we all know that Denver isn’t a team built to come back should be be down a few TDs or so. Even with all of the Chief’s woes they still rank 3rd in overall DVOA while Denver ranks 18th. It’s not like the Broncos are not without their injuries losing Bryce Callahan this week and Tackle Juwan James. Emanual Sanders is also banged up and we can’t forget that Bradly Chubb is out for the season. This is a straight value play here for me and I have to take the Chiefs. No offense is better at 7 yards per play and KC also has a .9 Net yards per play advantage.
Kansas City -3 – 3 star premium shared
Houston vs Indianapolis -1 O/U 47.5
I cover this one with Marco on the podcast. I want to fade Houston here. They beat a terrible Falcons team 2 weeks ago and last week got revenge on an ailing Kansas City team. Everyone remembers that Raiders loss but that loss doesn’t look so bad after the Raiders played the Bears. We have to remember that the Colts beat the Chiefs as well before the bye. I have to fade the BIll O’Brian in a let down spot from beating the Chiefs and get on the Colts after this bye week with extra time to prepare. My ace in the hole here is that Darius Leonard will be back who can fire up a defense. Last year he led the league in tackles. Houston has some injuries to their Cornerbacks as well as their offensive line. This is also a power ratings play because I have Houston only a slight favorite on a neutral field.
Indianapolis -1 – 2 star premium
